181
FXUS62 KCAE 160846
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
446 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will provide a brief break in the unsettled conditions
today. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again Friday and
especially on Saturday with unsettled weather likely lingering into
Sunday. A cooler and drier air mass moves in for Monday and Tuesday
with temperatures rebounding during the middle of next week as
another ridge moves in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Fog has continued to develop across the northern
Midlands with some areas becoming dense with visibilities less
than one quarter mile. As such have issued a dense fog advisory
for the northern Midlands to the Pee Dee through 10 am.

Previous discussion...Convection has moved offshore with some
patchy fog and stratus developing mainly over the northern
Midlands and Pee Dee. Through daybreak expect the fog and
stratus to expand southward into the central Midlands with some
visibilities across the northern Midlands aob 1 mile. Overnight
lows will be in the low 60s.

Drier air currently on satellite imagery west of the area will
be moving in today as upper level ridging builds over the
region. The fog and stratus over the area early this morning
will quickly mix out with sunrise along with light northerly
winds aiding in drier air introduction. With the plentiful
surface moisture available from recent rains expect some
scattered cumulus to develop however with a weak inversion
aloft and 850-500 mb lapse rate at 5.5 C/Km expect vertical
development to be limited and no showers through the afternoon
and evening. This evening with the loss of heating the cumulus
will dissipate with mostly clear skies expected overnight. High
temperatures this afternoon will range from the low 80s in the
northern Midlands and Pee Dee to the mid 80s in the central
Midlands and CSRA. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday and Friday Night: The day begins with the upper ridge axis
overhead before flattening out and moving east in response to a
digging trough over the Central CONUS. PWATs gradually rise through
the day as the next storm system approaches. Clouds lower and
thicken with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon
and evening hours, especially north and west of I-20. The rain
should then increase in coverage during the overnight with a few
thunderstorms also possible. The severe threat appears to be low
(Less than 20%) though modeled soundings do show adequate shear for
a few stronger updrafts to develop with gusty winds as the primary
hazard. Temperatures should be similar to today with near to above
normal highs and above normal lows.

Saturday and Saturday Night: While some timing differences persist
in the global models, confidence in periods of rain and
thunderstorms on Saturday is High (80%) with convection most likely
during the afternoon and evening hours as an area of low pressure
approaches. A shortwave trough moves into the region later in the
day as well and provides needed lift to increase the threat of a few
strong to severe thunderstorms. The Day 3 SPC Severe Weather Outlook
places the entire CWA in a Marginal (1/5) risk. Given the expected
clouds and rain, the amount of stability will be in question and a
Marginal risk makes sense at this time. Once again damaging winds
will be the primary severe hazard. Daytime temperatures should be a
few degrees cooler than Friday but around normal values with above
normal temperatures at night.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday as low
pressure becomes vertically stacked and drifts offshore. Rain
coverage will likely be lower than on Saturday. Therefore, PoPs are
lower, roughly 45 to 65 percent, with the highest probabilities
closer to the coast. This system continues to drift to our southeast
on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure and northerly flow advect
cooler and drier air into our FA. Monday will likely be the coolest
day with temperatures rebounding towards the end of the extended as
upper ridging builds in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions possible in early morning fog and stratus then
improving to VFR for the rest of the period.

Convection has moved well east of the terminals with the main
focus of the period being the potential for early morning fog
and stratus. Surface obs show fog beginning to develop around
and south of CLT with satellite imagery showing fog developing
along area rivers. Over the next couple of hours expect fog and
stratus to develop at AGS/OGB then into CAE/CUB shortly before
sunrise. Fog and stratus will quickly mix out with sunrise with
VFR through the end of the period. SCT diurnal cumulus will
develop from late morning through the afternoon hours however
expect vertical development to be limited with no convection
expected. Winds through the period will be NW to N at 7 knots or
less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible again Friday afternoon
through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ016-021-
     022-029-115-116.
GA...None.

&&

$$