972
FXUS61 KCLE 031740
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
140 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north into the area this morning. Weak low
pressure will move east along this front today, followed by a cold
front arriving tonight. Another cold front will cross the area on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 PM Update...
Currently there is an area of light rain showers along the I71
corridor gradually moving east, but no thunder is being
reported. Behind this area of showers, some additional
development is possible early afternoon, but the greater
potential for thunder has shifted to between 22Z Friday to 02Z
Saturday when an area of low level convergence is enhanced by an
upper level shortwave moving east. Have adjusted PoPs with this
update to reflect that shift in the forecast through tonight. In
addition, temperatures across western counties have remained
much cooler than originally forecast so have adjusted the high
temperature forecast to reflect this.

930 AM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures to reflect the
cooler temperatures this morning, but overall highs remain the
same. Some peaks of sun have allowed the eastern counties to
warm faster this morning, so still expecting the warmest
temperatures to be there. In addition, adjusted PoPs to account
for the more scattered nature of the showers this morning and
through this afternoon. Not expecting anything severe today, but
cannot rule out a couple rumbles of thunder this afternoon.

630 AM Update...
Showers have filled in along the warm front in southwest Ohio
and are tracking north along the I-75 corridor. Sped up the rain
slightly this morning and raised temperatures at some
locations. Otherwise still expecting it to be a wet day with
most areas seeing precipitation at some point.

Previous discussion...
Low pressure is located over northern Minnesota this morning with a
weaker area of low pressure over Indiana. A warm front extends from
this low towards Central Ohio. Broad low pressure will make
slow progress east across the area today with the warm front
lifting north into northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
although not expected to make it all the way to the lakeshore.
The area will be in the warm sector today but have toned down
high temperatures by a couple degrees given the thickening cloud
field and expanding showers. Timing of showers is somewhat
difficult today given weak flow and broad moisture advection.
Some showers should develop in NW Ohio as the warm front lifts
north into the area this morning. Instability will be limited
this morning but expect destabilization to aid in shower and
thunderstorm development by mid afternoon, especially in
Northeast Ohio initially and then shifting into Northwest
Pennsylvania this evening. Weak flow over the area will mean
storm motion will be 20 knots or less. Severe weather is not
expected given modest instability and little shear. Heavy rain
will be the bigger concern if any training occurs due to the
relatively slow storm motion and PW values over an inch and a
half. Highs today will range from near 70 towards the lakeshore
to near 80 in the southeastern counties.

A decrease in showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight as
mid-level dry air works in from the west and instability
decreases. A cold front moves southeast into the area and tends
to stall, with some convergence holding on in the southeastern
counties. Can not rule out a shower anywhere so will keep a pop
everywhere with the highest southeast of a line from Mansfield
to Erie PA. By Saturday, dewpoints will remain elevated in the
low 60s. Depending on breaks in the clouds and degree of
heating, ML CAPE should be a little higher with values in the
1000-1500 J/kg. Flow develops out of the south again as another
low pressure system moves into the Midwest. Expect convection to
initiate closer to Central Ohio and lift north through the
afternoon. Most of Ohio should recover into the 70s while NW
Pennsylvania will hold in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Progressive pattern continues into the short term forecast period
and heading into the end of the weekend. Cold front to track through
the CWA late Saturday night into Sunday, followed by brief high
pressure Sunday night into Monday. Still looking at largely low
flows/shear and saturation through the column ahead of and with the
cold front, and not much of a severe weather setup but possibly
storms highlighted by downpours in a high precipitation efficiency
environment. General thunder outlooked from SPC, but will get a
relatively short period of stabilization as the aforementioned high
pressure builds in for the end of the short term. This late Sunday
night/early Monday period is probably going to end up the lowest
POPs in both the short and long term forecast. Temperatures cool 4-8
degrees Sunday into Monday in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front that settles just south of the CWA early Monday night
will track back northeastward as a warm front late Monday night into
early Tuesday, and back into the warm sector. Deep upper level low
over the upper midwest region will drive another cold front into the
area Tuesday night in southwest flow aloft. Brief high pressure once
again Wednesday before another cold front Wednesday night into
Thursday. Despite the upper low that will make little headway
eastward towards the northern half of the Great Lakes by the end of
the long term, no real significant changes in airmass in terms of
temperature expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue ahead of the approaching
cold front through the first part of tonight. There is currently
an area of light rain showers moving east across the area, but
no thunder has been reported and visibilities have remained
near 10SM. There remains a potential of scattered thunderstorms
late this afternoon into the evening hours as an upper level
shortwave enhancing lift over the area. With low confidence in
the placement of these thunderstorms, opted to handle them with
a TEMPO beginning at 21Z for KTOL and gradually push east. In
the strongest storms, visibilities and ceilings may briefly fall
to MVFR conditions, but should quickly rebound.

Overnight tonight, the aforementioned pushes east, allow for
much of the area to briefly experience dry conditions. Behind
this boundary, ceilings will lower to MVFR heights and should
persist for most sites through the end of the period. A chance
of showers returns Saturday afternoon.

Variable winds of 4-6 knots will persist across the area until
Saturday morning when they become sustained at 5-10 knots from
the southeast. The exception will be KTOL which will have a 5-10
knots wind from the northeast. Isolated gusts are possible near
the end of the period for KERI due to downslope enhancement.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
East northeast winds dominate through Saturday with 1-3ft waves for
the western and central basins of LAke Erie. Beyond that through
early next week, expect varying wind directions thanks  to several
frontal systems coming through the region. Despite some onshore
winds at times, wave heights should remain in the 1-2ft range or
less for the bulk of the forecast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...Campbell/KEC
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...26