345
FXUS64 KFWD 181922
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
222 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 133 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/
/This Weekend/

A quiet weekend with regard to rain chances, which will be NIL
with mid level heights on the rise with an upper ridge building
over the region. What it will be is very warm and humid, as sunny
skies allow for maximum insolation. Unfortunately, a lot of the
sun`s energy will be used to to evaporate moisture from the soil
and plentiful green vegetation (evapotranspiration). I have
decided to undercut NBM guidance temperatures both this afternoon
and again on Sunday by 2-3 degrees just solely for this reason,
despite the synoptic set up supporting hotter temperatures.
Afternoon temperatures will still heat up to around 90 degrees
and combine with elevated humidity values for heat index values
into the mid 90s. Though not extremely oppressive, it still won`t
be the most pleasant outdoors during the peak heating of the
afternoon through sunset. This will be reminder that the long dog
days of summer are just around the next corner and will be here
before we know it.

Southerly winds 5 to 10 mph tonight will hold low temperatures up
around around 70 degrees around sunrise Sunday. Patchy fog and
a brief window of low clouds through mid morning are anticipated
once again across primarily Central Texas. Otherwise, a broad
surface high over the Lower Mississippi Valley and low pressure
along the lee of the Southern Rockies will help increase the
surface pressures gradient across the Southern Plains on Sunday.
Proficient mixing by midday will also help increase southerly
winds to between 10-15 mph with gusts exceeding 20 mph by early
afternoon. This may provide a little relief from the very warm
and humid conditions, but not by much. Dress lightly and if
working or playing outdoors (whichever it may be) for any longer
amount of time. Be sure to remain hydrated and occasionally take
a break in the shade or in an air-conditioned vehicle or home to
avoid overheating.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Upper level ridging and dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will keep
the beginning of this upcoming week warm, dry, and humid across
North and Central Texas. A deepening longwave trough will move
onshore in the western CONUS early this week, eventually shunting
the ridge further into the deep south. In advance of this
incoming trough, surface lee cyclogenesis will occur to our
northwest and increase wind speeds through Tuesday in response.
While the slightly elevated winds may help alleviate the heat,
increased WAA from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday will allow
afternoon heat indices to peak near 100 degrees across the
majority of the region. With many end-of-school outdoor activities
going on during the afternoon hours, caution will need to be
taken when spending longer periods outside. Make sure to drink
plenty of water, wear light clothing, and take breaks in air
conditioning/shade.

By Tuesday evening, a shortwave disturbance will round the base of
the trough and eject to the northeast. Lift from this shortwave
will interact with present moisture and instability to promote
isolated chances for showers and storms beginning Tuesday night.
Immediately upstream of the initial disturbance, a stouter
shortwave will swing across the Great Plains and send a cold front
south across the Red River early Wednesday. Scattered showers and
storms will continue to be possible near and along the front as
it pushes south. The front will end up stalling across North Texas
as its upper level support quickly races off to the east
Wednesday evening. Coverage in storms ahead/along the stalled
boundary will increase on Thursday as another shortwave transits
across the region and ushers the boundary northward as a warm
front. Forecast soundings show enough shear and instability to
promote strong to severe storms, but it is still a bit too early
to pinpoint more exact locations, threats, and intensity.
Nonetheless, keep an eye on the forecast for mid-late this week as
we will have more refined details the closer we get. Lingering
rain chances will end on Friday, with a temporary lull in
precipitation expected ahead of yet another incoming shortwave
disturbance to our northwest.

Switching back to temperatures and heat: slightly "cooler"
temperatures in the 80s are expected midweek thanks to the front
and rain chances, but a warming trend is expected going into the
weekend as ridging begins to build across the Southern Plains.
Continued high humidity and warming temperatures will push heat
index values back into the mid-upper 90s for most. Friday and
Saturday will once again be days to keep an eye on outside
conditions as heat indices could be 100+ degrees in some areas,
the highest of the forecast period. With next weekend being so far
out, there is quite a degree of uncertainty in the exact
temperature/heat index and locations. However, if similar guidance
trends continue over the next handful of days, heat safety
messaging will need to be ramped up for next weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 133 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/
/18z TAFs/

VFR. Sustained S winds around 5-10 kts, becoming 10-15 kts after
after 15z Sunday with a few gusts > 20 kts. Brief low MVFR (or
possibly IFR) cigs will be possible at KACT between 12z-15z
Sunday, but won`t last long.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  91  73  91  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                69  88  70  88  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               66  89  69  88  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              69  90  71  91  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            68  90  71  89  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              71  92  73  91  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             68  89  70  88  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           69  90  71  90  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              69  88  69  89  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  90  71  93  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$