898
FXUS62 KMFL 191813
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
213 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Scattered to numerous showers will be likely across portions of
southeast Florida this afternoon as a shortwave and associated
surface front approach the region. Satellite imagery shows the
boundary already draped across the Lake Okeechobee region, with
strong to severe storms firing off across Okeechobee and St Lucie
counties. As this boundary moves southward, conditions will rapidly
deteriorate for areas along the Lake and for southeastern FL.

Data from the MFL 12z sounding and ACARS flights depict an
atmosphere primed for convective activity and potential severe
impacts, with MUCAPE > 3000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates above 6
C/km, EBWD > 40 kts, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.65 inches or
more which could result in damaging wind gusts and severe hail (up
to the size of a quarter) with some of the stronger thunderstorms.
At this time, the limiting factor for hail development are the mid
level temperatures which remain above -10C. However, temperatures
will continue to drop and lapse rates will steepen as a pronounced
shortwave finalizes its approach, thus enhancing the risk for hail
across the area. A limited risk of tornadoes will also exist with
some of the stronger storms, but chances will be limited to areas
where low-level shear exceeds threshold values, namely along the
immediate East Coast sea breeze boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been issued for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade
counties through 7PM today.

Temperatures will continue to rise across southern-most portions of
the region ahead of the approaching front and associated cloud
coverage. Peak apparent temperatures in the range of 105-110F are
likely for portions of Miami-Dade and Broward counties where Heat
Advisories remain in effect through this evening. Localized areas in
Palm Beach and Collier counties could also see elevated heat index
values early this afternoon, but convective activity and cloud
coverage should help limit heat-related impacts across those
counties.

The frontal boundary will slowly drift southward across our region
overnight into Monday. This, along with the once again pinned east
coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the region, although reduced instability and
gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east)
should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although
temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should
be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Frontal boundary will make it`s way into the FL Straits on Tuesday
into early Wednesday before dissipating. The upper level trough axis
will sit east of the area through mid week before finally starting
to lift out and height rises work their way into the area. This will
result in elevated PoPs for Tuesday and Tuesday evening before
shower/storm chances diminish to low end chance for mid week through
next weekend, mainly confined to afternoon and early evening
diurnally driven sea-breeze convection.

Temperatures will remain above normal through next weekend with
highs across the east coast metro in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and
low to mid 90s over the interior and SW FL. Low temperatures will be
closer to climo through mid week ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s, before increasing late week into next weekend to the low 70s
around the lake and upper 70s near the coasts thanks to the flow
becoming more southeasterly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Sub-VFR conditions could be possible for all terminals this
afternoon as convection develops over the region. Short- fuse TEMPOs
will likely be needed through the afternoon especially for East
Coast sites where chances for TSRA are highest. SW winds 8-10 kts
will prevail across much of South Florida, but the East Coast sea
breeze will attempt to work inland, thus included the wind shift for
several of the East Coast sites over the next few hours.
Showers will linger overnight with light and variable winds.
Similar conditions will be possible tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters
through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be expected today as a cold front drops through the region,
with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly
over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as
the front pushes through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  92  75  88 /  30  60  40  60
West Kendall     75  94  73  90 /  30  60  30  60
Opa-Locka        77  93  75  90 /  30  60  40  60
Homestead        76  93  75  89 /  40  50  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  75  87 /  40  60  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  90  75  88 /  40  60  40  60
Pembroke Pines   78  94  75  91 /  30  60  40  60
West Palm Beach  74  90  72  88 /  40  60  40  60
Boca Raton       76  92  73  88 /  40  60  40  60
Naples           78  90  74  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...ATV