Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 240953
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
253 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...The low pressure system that has brought our recent
wet and active weather is currently centered over west-central
Oregon. Several bands of showers are traversing eastwards across
the area as they swing under the low. This will weaken and
continue southeast this morning, bringing most of the shower
activity with it. Generally light, isolated showers will stick
around into the early evening today, however, generally along the
coast/into Douglas County and the Cascade ridge. A weakening ridge
blasts through the region late this evening into early Monday,
before northwest flow resumes. A weak occlusion moves ashore late
Monday morning, bringing chances of light precipitation to the
area (highest north and west of the Rogue Valley).

The progressive pattern continues into the week, as a brief period
of dry weather for most the the region late Tuesday morning into
early Wednesday gives way to the next system, a stronger low
moving in from the northwest in the early hours Wednesday. This
system will bring moderate to heavy precipitation and gusty
southwest winds. The southwest flow pattern will focus the
heaviest precipitation over the south OR/northern CA coast
(particularly Curry County) and western and south-central Siskiyou
County. Snow levels look to rise to 5000-5500 feet with warm
advection as the frontal precipitation band moves in Wednesday
morning, falling behind the cold front to 3200-4000 feet Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning.

Low pressure will continue to bring wet and active weather to the
northwest through the end of the week, with more periods of
moderate to heavy rain and mountain snow. Global models are
suggesting dry weather is more likely by the latter half of the
weekend, with a stronger ridge building in. -CSP

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

Showers are occurring across southern Oregon and northern
California. While VFR is the most likely condition to be observed
through the TAF period, showers will provide periods of MVFR
ceilings and visibilities and terrain obscurations, especially near
the coast. These showers will gradually dissipate in the afternoon,
lingering near the coast and the Cascades. In addition, gusty winds
will be possible this afternoon east of the Cascades, including at
the Klamath Falls Airport. -Schaaf

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM Sunday, March 24, 2024...West-southwest
winds will become north-northwest this morning, and gradually become
less gusty. Meanwhile, steep seas will persist. Conditions are
expected to improve slightly tonight, but moreso on Monday despite
the passage of a weak front. Another strong front approaches mid
next week with increasing south winds and possible gales late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning through early Wednesday
afternoon. Currently, the probability for wind gusts of 41 knots or
higher (Gales) is 50 to 70 percent. High to very high seas will
continue behind this front middle/late next week with hazards likely
over the waters and/or the beaches. -Schaaf/Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning above
     4000 feet for CAZ080>083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$


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