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000
FXUS61 KOKX 210518
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
118 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through early next week before giving
way to a frontal system on Wednesday. High pressure then builds
in through Friday, followed by another frontal system next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

The cold front has passed offshore, with high pressure over the
central states building into the region overnight. Mostly clear
skies are expected along with colder and drier air. Gusty
northwest winds will continue to diminish overnight. Temperatures
should fall into the middle 30s inland and upper 30s and lower
40s most elsewhere. There may be some patchy frost for inland
areas, but dew points in the 20s should prevent any widespread
frost development. Therefore, no Frost Advisory has been issued
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure and dry conditions will prevail Sunday through
Monday. A large upper level low will settle over southeast
Canada on Sunday carving out broad troughing across the eastern
US. A southern stream shortwave along the base of the trough
will develop a wave of low pressure along the southeast coast
through the day. A strong upper jet streak is also expected to
lie near New England, which will help to draw up middle and
upper level moisture to the north of the low. As a result,
increasing clouds will occurs Sunday morning leading to mostly
cloudy conditions for the area. Highs will end up below normal
in the 50s.

The jet streak pushes east Sunday evening allowing the southern
low to move out into the Atlantic. Clouds will decrease from
northwest to southeast leading to mostly clear skies overnight.
Another chilly night is in store with lows in the middle to
upper 30s inland and lower 40s closer to the coast. A dry
atmosphere will lead to sunny conditions on Monday with highs a
bit warmer than Sunday, but still below normal in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft for Monday night and Tuesday with surface high
pressure in control of the weather, keeping us dry through the
period. Possibly some patchy frost early Tuesday morning well
NW of the city and in the Pine Barrens. High temperatures
Tuesday afternoon will be a few degrees below normal.

500mb trough digs towards the Northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with a surface low center passing to our north. Shower
chances begin late at night, then showers become likely on
Wednesday with the passage of an associated cold front. High
pressure then begins to build back in behind the storm system
Thursday night and remains in control through Friday. Dry during
this time, and high temperatures both days will be a few
degrees below normal.

Models differ on the timing of the next low pressure system, which
could impact the weather next weekend. They at least agree that
a surface low heading into the Great Lakes will run into mid-
level ridging. This will help weaken the system and keep its
center to our north this weekend, with the best chance of
showers arriving with the leading warm front and trailing cold
front. Will go with a chance of showers starting mainly Saturday
afternoon, but we might be able to get through the daytime
hours of Saturday without seeing any showers. High temperatures
remaining a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west overnight. A surface
trough sets up across the area on Sunday.

VFR. Gusty NW winds of 20 to 25 kt will continue to diminish,
eventually subsiding after 06-08Z and becoming WNW at less than
10 kt. On Sunday, winds back to the W increasing 10-15kt
G15-20kt. Coastal locations may back to the WSW if not SW.
Confidence in a true seabreeze is low due to the strength of the
westerly winds in the mixed layer.

     ....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts up to 25 kt through 08Z.

Gusts may be more occasional on Sunday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers. S winds 10-15G20-25kt
in the afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.

Thursday: VFR. Gusty NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Following a cold frontal passage this evening, there will be a
few NW gusts close to 25 kt, then gradually subsiding overnight.
High pressure will build tonight through Monday. Winds and seas
are expected to remain below SCA levels given the relatively
weak pressure gradient.

High pressure should keep conditions at sub-advisory levels
through at least Tuesday morning, then gusts to 25 kt could be
possible on the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet in the
afternoon. The pressure gradient tightens with slowly increasing
winds Tuesday night into Wednesday, increasing the likelihood
of SCA conditions across all ocean waters during this period.
Seas on a southerly flow build up to around 5 ft on Wednesday. A
cold front then passes through, and SCA conds will still be
likely on the ocean Wednesday night. Offshore winds diminish on
Thursday along with subsiding seas. Sub-advisory conditions are
therefore anticipated by the end of the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS