Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 262333
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
733 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today, while low pressure
develops over the Gulf Coast states and moves into South
Carolina Wednesday morning. This front will slowly cross our
region into Wednesday before stalling in the Piedmont Thursday.
By Friday into the weekend, the system will be northeast of our
area with high pressure entering the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Tuesday...

The early evening update will present the following changes to
the forecast. First, the overall pattern for the forecast
overnight has not changed. We are still expecting rain and
showers associated with the approach of a cold front, and there
will be, on the whole, very good coverage from an areal stand
point. However, the updated forecast will show bigger disconnect
between the first round of rain and showers to cross the region,
and the second round.

The first round currently is making its way, along with still a
few isolated thunderstorms, across eastern parts of the area.
The bulk of this activity is expected to exit the area by 900
PM EDT.

Not too long after the exit of this first round, the second
round will be making its way into western parts of the region
from the southwest. As the night progresses, look for this next
round of activity to move east across the region during the
early morning hours of Wednesday.

Low temperatures also have been updated for the the night.
Current temperatures across the mountains post-rain, area
already below what was forecast. As we progress through the
night, expect western sections to experience little in the way
of temperature change from currently values. Eastern areas are
still currently cooling from the rain, but these too should
reach an early low point and remain nearly steady through the
night.

As of 506 PM EDT Tuesday...

Arrival of rain/showers across the eastern portion of the
region has been outpacing the timing within our forecast. This
pattern looks to continue into the early evening hours. As such,
the forecast has been adjusted to account for this earlier
arrival time. Additionally, some isolated thunderstorms have
been able to develop within enough weak instability aloft. The
region of the area generally along and east of Route 29 in
Virginia and North Carolina may see isolated thunderstorms,
along with the advancing showers, through sunset.

As of 205 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain chances continue through most of Wednesday.
2. Mild overnight temperatures, highs tomorrow similar to
today.

Rain has reached locations west of the Blue Ridge, but some
scattered showers are also observed farther east into the
Foothills. A few isolated lightning flashes have been noted over
southwest Virginia, but not expecting much more than that. The
heavier rain at this time is over western West Virginia and into
the Ohio Valley, but this will continue to move east through
the afternoon and evening, spreading across most of the rest of
the area by 8 PM. Some high res guidance is suggesting some
decreasing coverage of rain during the early morning hours of
Wednesday, but increasing again over the east by midday. There
is still some uncertainty in where the axis of heaviest rain
will be for Wednesday, but highest amounts still look to be just
east of the area in the central Piedmont, as the cold front
approaching from the west interacts with a low deepening off the
coast. At this time, amounts look to be between a quarter and
three quarters of an inch for our area.There is some potential for
thunder in the far Virginia Southside tomorrow afternoon, as
instability increases, but confidence on this is low.

Abundant cloud cover will be present overnight, which will keep
lows in the 40s for most. The clouds will hold on through
tomorrow as well, although more dense in the Piedmont by the
afternoon, which will keep highs in the Piedmont lower than
west of the Blue Ridge, in the low to mid 50s in the east and
low 60s in the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for gusty winds during Thursday and Friday.

2) Drier weather is expected for Thursday night and Friday.

A cold front will slowly cross the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday night,
but it will buckle as an area of low pressure develops along the
East Coast. As a result, it will take until Thursday for the
moisture to exit the Piedmont. Drier air should arrive west of the
Blue Ridge on Thursday, and winds will increase from the northwest.
Eventually, the cold front should depart offshore to allow the
Piedmont to become dry by Thursday evening. Northwest winds will
continue to gust through Thursday night and Friday, and some gusts
could approach advisory criteria along the higher elevations. The
wet soil combined with these wind gusts may cause a few downed trees
and power lines. Winds should eventually fade by Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for warmer weather this weekend.

2) Chances of showers will increase into early next week.

High pressure will reside across the Southeast, while a broad upper
level ridge builds across the southern Plains. A baroclinic zone
will develop across the northern Plains. While warmer air should
boost temperatures above normal this weekend, a gradually increasing
chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm exists to the northwest
as this baroclinic zone creeps closer to central West Virginia.
Cloud cover and rain chances will keep climbing by Monday as the
baroclinic zone becomes a warm front in response to a developing low
pressure system in the central Plains. The cold front from this
system should reach the Appalachian Mountains by Tuesday to produce
the highest odds for rainfall in this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Tuesday...

MVFR to low end VFR conditions existed across most of the
region. As the night progresses, look for a gradual trend
towards IFR/MVFR across the area.

One area of showers is currently moving east of a KLYH-KDAN
line. It will continue on its way. The next area is expected to
move into the area of KUKF to KMKJ by 02Z to 03Z and gradually
spread north and east throughout the night and the day on
Wednesday. Concentration will be greatest, and last the longest,
in areas near and southeast of a KSIF to KFVX line.

Very late in the day, areas west of a KBLF-KTNB line may see a
return to low end VFR conditions.

Winds trough the period for most areas will be light and
variable. The exception will be near KBLF this evening where
southeast gusts to near 20 kts will still be possible early this
evening. Additionally, western sections will see a northwest
wind by the late afternoon as the cold front crosses the region.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Through Thursday, conditions will trend to primarily IFR/MVFR
for most locations as a front slowly crosses the region, with
rain chances remaining.

Conditions return to VFR by Thursday night into Friday,
accompanied by gusty northwest winds.

A front may drop down from the north Saturday with possible
showers, but overall appears mainly VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...DS/AS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS/AS


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