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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260543
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 853 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Scattered light showers have developed this evening as an
increasing low level jet provides ascent atop a nearly stationary
warm front draped from near Ponca City to Tulsa to Fort Smith.
Rainfall amounts with this activity will be fairly light. A few
rumbles of thunder could occur, but chances are low (<20%) for
any thunder through the rest of the evening. This precip will act
to reinforce the cool side of the boundary and latest
observational trends have shown the warm front beginning to
retreat somewhat to the southwest as these showers have developed.
Where the warm front ends up will delineate what happens with
storms later tonight and into tomorrow morning. Storms are
expected to initiate across west Texas over the next couple of
hours along a dryline/Pacific front as support form a strong
upper level jet streak spreads over the moist/unstable airmass.
The strong synoptic support will likely lead to numerous
thunderstorms growing upscale into a linear system as they move
across northwest Texas. This complex should lift northeastward
through the night and approach eastern Oklahoma late tonight/early
Friday morning. In the warm sector, to the west and southwest of
the warm front, Storms will likely be severe, with damaging wind
gusts and large hail possible. Strong low level shear would also
support tornadoes along the leading edge of the gust front, while
the system remains organized. Current thinking would indicate the
biggest severe potential will be mainly along and west of Highway
75 in eastern Oklahoma as this complex moves into the region and
lessening further east where the environment will be less
favorable. Heavy rainfall rates could also lead to localized areas
of flash flooding as 1-2" per hour rates will be common with the
strongest cores.

Going forecast remains mostly in good shape...earlier update
accounted for updated trends in PoPs this evening and tonight.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Convection will be ongoing Friday morning, however the severe
threat will lessen through the morning as the low level jet
subsides. Storms may linger across far NW AR into the afternoon,
so will keep high PoPs in those areas after 18z. Isolated
to scattered storms that can develop back further to the west
during the afternoon will have severe potential as the airmass in
this area becomes unstable once more. Greatest severe potential
will be Saturday as afternoon storms develop along a surface
dryline to the west. Storms will move east and enter eastern
Oklahoma during the late evening hours. Storm strength will be
maintained by a developing low level jet, along with favorable
diffluence aloft. All modes of severe will be possible before the
severe threat transitions to a more heavy rainfall/ flash flooding
threat. Deep layer moisture over the area along with low level
flow paralleling the mean flow will support training convection
by late Saturday evening and during the overnight hours across NE
OK, and will enhance the flooding threat. The upper trough axis
will lift through the area on Sunday, with the focus for
convection and some severe weather setting up across SE OK and NW
AR later in the day Sunday. The first part of the week should
remain relatively dry, with increasing storm chances by mid week
and another frontal boundary moves into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A warm front draped over the region has yielded vastly different
cigs depending on what side of the front you are located. At KBVO
on the cool side of the front, IFR cigs will persist with sct
shra/tsra thru the night. Meanwhile, down south at KMLC and KFSM,
VFR cigs with spotty shra. Toward daybreak Friday, a storm complex
coming in from the west will bring another round of deteriorated
flight conditions and gusty winds. This activity will be largely
east of the TAF sites by afternoon. There is a low chance of a
storm during the afternoon or early evening, and this was handled
with a prob30 group.

LLWS conditions are ongoing at most sites thru the night. Another
night of LLWS is expected over in NW AR on Friday night.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  80  62 /  90  10  70  90
FSM   76  67  82  66 /  90  40  70  60
MLC   77  67  80  64 /  90  20  70  80
BVO   82  64  80  60 /  60  10  70  90
FYV   73  63  79  63 / 100  40  60  60
BYV   73  64  80  63 /  90  40  50  50
MKO   76  66  80  62 /  90  20  60  80
MIO   75  66  81  62 / 100  20  60  80
F10   78  66  79  62 /  90  10  70  90
HHW   75  66  80  64 /  90  30  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...30