Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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516
FXUS63 KABR 010156 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
856 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

A few light showers/sprinkles will affect northeast SD/west
central MN this evening as radar was showing some weak returns.
Otherwise...clouds will continue to wrap around the upper low
pressure area to our north and across our region with breezy west
winds remaining through the night.

UPDATE Issued at 654 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

An upper level shortwave currently centered over the northern plains
will slowly work eastward tonight and Wednesday...with weak
northwest flow setting up behind it. The surface low associated with
the upper low will slide from North Dakota tonight to southwestern
Ontario by Wednesday afternoon. May still see a few showers across
the northern CWA this evening as precipitation wraps around the back
side of the low. By later tonight...these will come to an end as the
system exits the region. High pressure settles in on
Wednesday...keeping conditions dry and temperatures a bit below
normal.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s northwest to
the lower 50s east. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from
the mid 60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

The period begins with a weak shortwave tracking across the region
with light showers possible along I-90 Thursday afternoon. With this
being a low probability...will keep this time period dry. On
Thursday night into Friday...models generally agree with a fairly
strong upper level shortwave impacting the region from the
northwest. Base on model consensus and the Climatology Calibrated
Precipitation Analysis (CCPA)...have increased pops into the 30 to
50 percent range.

With steep low level lapse rates and weak instability...the eastern
half of the CWA could see additional showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon. Dry and warm conditions can be expected beyond
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Low vfr, possibly mvfr at times, mixing layer clouds will continue
to move across the region behind a low pressure area to our north
through tonight and into Wednesday. All locations should be
affected. Also, west winds will remain breezy/windy through tonight
and into Wednesday in the 15 to 25 knot range with gusts to 30 knots
or so.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Mohr



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