856
FXUS63 KABR 092028
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
328 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures are looking likely over the weekend,
  along with drier conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Plenty of flat cumulus across the region this afternoon, along with
a few sprinkles or very light showers across the southern CWA, which
is covered with slight chance (20%) PoPs until this evening when all
this will begin to wane with the loss of daytime heating. A weak
frontal boundary will then move across the region overnight, which
will bring a slight uptick in wind speeds from the northwest by
morning. Then, as the day progresses on Friday these winds will
increase out of the northwest while temperatures warm into the 70s.
A weak surface ridge will then move in Saturday night, bringing
lighter winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Split flow continues for the start of the weekend with a positive
tilted ridge over the Northern Plains, putting our area in northwest
flow, and a closed low/trough over the Southwestern US. Through the
day Saturday, a low will push east, then southeast across Canada.
Most of the moisture with this will stay to our northeast in ND/MN.
By Sunday morning, Clusters continue to agree on a now open wave
over the Southwestern U.S as the mid level low in Canada continues
its track southeast, causing for a very weak positive tilted trough
over the area from 500mb to the surface. Early next week, a ridge
moves overhead as this open wave will continue to be over the
central Plains. This ridge pushes east Monday night as our next wave
moves in from the west/northwest and over the Northern Plains
Tuesday into Wednesday, along with its surface low. Clusters agree
on this pattern but disagree on exact timing and intensity as this
shortwave and low as it pushes east.

Overall dry conditions expected through the weekend, however, with
this southern system, our southern/southeastern CWA could get
clipped with light moisture. Right now most of it does stay to our
south, but if the trough/sfc low moves more northward there would be
a better chance. Right now latest NBM has 15% pops or less Sunday
afternoon across our southeastern CWA and 15-20% over the Coteau
Sunday evening. By ~Monday evening/early Tuesday chances of rain
starts to move in from the northwest through the midweek with the
highest chances of pops Tuesday (40-50%) ahead of the cold front. 20-
50% pops, highest over our eastern CWA, continue Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning before diminishing west to east. Probability of 24
QPF>0.25" ending Wednesday at 18Z ranges from 25-35%, highest over
the eastern CWA per grand ensemble. Organized severe threat remains
low at this time as prob of Cape>500j/kg and shear over 30kts is 10%
or less. There should be enough Cape to support some generalized
thunder Monday/Tuesday ahead of the cold front.

Zonal winds at 850mb and surface will help bring in warmer air with
forecasted highs in the mid to upper 70s to around 80 for the
weekend, which is above normal for this time of year. Cooler air
filters back into the area midweek with highs back in the 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...TMT