Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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632
FXUS63 KABR 042354 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
554 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Snowfall amounts along with the potential for blowing snow on Monday
will be the main forecast concerns.

Westerly winds behind an area of low pressure currently over NE
North Dakota has produced highs in the 30s for most locations. Where
there is no snow cover, temps have reached the low 40s. While
westerly winds will diminish tonight, lows should remain in the 20s
as we will see increase cloud cover from our next storm system. A
low pressure system currently over Montana will track across NW
South Dakota and into North Dakota Monday through Monday night. This
system still has the potential to bring accumulating snow to north
central South Dakota, or the Mobridge area. While the 12Z NAM showed
very little snowfall, the 18Z is showing higher QPF and thus higher
snowfall amounts for north central SD. The falling snow, along with
increasing northwesterly winds could cause blowing snow issues. Will
leave blowing snow out of the forecast as the strongest winds should
follow the accumulating snowfall. Most of the region will see gusty
winds on Tuesday thanks to a tight pressure gradient. Did increase
winds by 5 knots over most of the CWA on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

An upper trough will bring much cooler weather through the end of
the work week. Temps will only top out at about 5 to 15 degrees. As
the upper flow becomes more zonal through the weekend, temperatures
will moderate slightly.

The main challenge through the extended will be precipitation
chances. The pattern is full of shortwave energy which models have
notorious difficulty timing and resolving. So, there is considerable
uncertainty regarding potential for snow shower activity. The ECMWF
has been fairly consistent with bringing some snow showers into the
northeastern cwa on Thursday though timing on the latest run has
shifted more to Wed night/Thurs morning. Although precip remains in
the forecast for Saturday, the deterministic runs have all backed
off on bringing a system through the Dakotas, so this too may
change. Bottom line...expect off and on snow showers with cold air
in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
most of Monday. An upper level low pressure trough moving across
the region along with a cold front sweeping through on Monday
could bring some light snow to MBG and ABR along with MVFR
ceilings.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr



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