Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 220949
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
349 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FALLING AS LIGHT RAIN...WITH
WARM ADVECTION PUSH IN SOUTHEAST SD EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. MOISTURE OUT WEST RIVER ALSO OVER
AN AREA WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING.
MAIN ISSUE IS IN BETWEEN WHERE SOME RADIATION COOLING SENT
READINGS INTO THE 20S EARLIER...AND WITH LIGHT QPF SEEING SOME
FREEZING RAIN MAINLY BETWEEN PIERRE...HIGHMORE...UP TO GETTYSBURG.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE SO EXPECT ONLY MINOR IMPACTS THROUGH THE
EARLY AM AND WENT WITH AN SPS. GUIDANCE COOLS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OFF RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...I SUSPECT A TAD TOO
QUICKLY...FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
UNTIL TROWAL FEATURE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED TONIGHT. GREATEST
MODEL OUTPUT FOR SNOW TOTALS ARE FOCUSED IN CENTRAL COUNTIES AND
NUDGE UP INTO WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ELECTED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE ALSO TRENDED
DOWN AND LATER INTO TUESDAY SO EXPECTED LESS IMPACT WITH BLOWING
SNOW THEN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SUGGESTED.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM CENTER AROUND PCPN CHANCES. EARLY
IN THE PERIOD A S/W RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER MORE ENERGY COMING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE VERY EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND....WITH A SWATH OF SNOW NOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE LOOK
TO START OFF ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEN TREND
TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPIR THROUGH THE MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SD MON AND MON NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
DRIZZLE OR BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES AND FORCING WILL NOT SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW
ANYWHERE BUT BEHIND THE LOW. HAVE PRECIP ENTERING KMBG/KPIR BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALSO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE. SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT KATY OR KABR UNTIL
BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z TUESDAY.








&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
     6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ TUESDAY FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-
     POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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