Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 302017
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SWATH OF STRATUS WORKING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. AND THIS STRATUS COULD
HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IS ERODING
NICELY ON THE FRONT AND BACK EDGES AND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD PRETTY
QUICKLY. PLUS WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH /MODEL 850
MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OR 40 TO 50
DEGREES/ IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET
UP...AND LOW TWENTIES AND TEENS ARE FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS ALL FALLS UNDER THE DISCLAIMER THAT SKIES CLEAR HOWEVER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD COME CLOSE.
ALTERNATIVELY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND TIGHTENS
FURTHER ON SATURDAY /A DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 20 MB ACROSS THE
STATE/. SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND DEAD FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. INITIALLY...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT...WITH AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THUS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES +1 TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STRUGGLES WITH A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TILL THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS AROUND MID WEEK.

BEST FORCING WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES ENDS UP NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA...SO FOR THE MOST PART THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A NOTED GAP MOVING OVER THE CWA NOW. THE BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL BE MARKED BY A COMBINATION OF SCT/BKN MVFR
CLOUDS...BEFORE OVC CIGS RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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