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000
FXUS64 KAMA 102321
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS TOWARDS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. SURFACE WINDS FOR KGUY AND KDHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND REMAIN FROM THAT DIRECTION UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT WONT BE UNTIL 21Z
TO 00Z THAT THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

FOR KAMA...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT
UNTIL MID-MORNING TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE APPROACHING AWW CRITERIA AROUND 23Z TO 00Z TOWARDS THE END
OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN AWW UNTIL THE
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...HIGH WINDS AND POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY BEFORE IT SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
FOR TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO/NM WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED A WARMER AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SIDE TO THE EAST WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS QUICKLY PICKING UP AS
THEY VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL COME TOWARD THE EVENING...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE
STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING BUT STILL
FAVORING THIS FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LAG SO
STILL EXPECT A MILD DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S WITH EVEN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE
TAGGING THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
EVEN MORE. CONTEMPLATED ON ISSUING SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINE BUT WILL
LET THE NEXT SHIFT LOOK OVER THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AND MAKE A DECISION
THEN. NONETHELESS IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY QPF OVER THE AREA...LIKELY
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT HAVE
OPTED TO REMOVE THE INHERITED RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
BREEZY HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 60S THURSDAY AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE EAST
BUT WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SPIT OUT SOME QPF BUT WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...HAVE MAINTAINED THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST. THE UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE
WEEKEND...INDICATING A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND MILD WX OVER THE AREA.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF
35 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THIS FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT WILL YIELD ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON...20 FOOT WINDS AT THAT TIME WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
OVER THE PANHANDLES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT. BEYOND
THURSDAY NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/14