Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 052130
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
TODAY IS ANOTHER DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO 80S AND LIGHT WINDS. DEEP
CLOSED LOWS CAN BE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE...ONE CENTERED
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE OTHER JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EASTWARD. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND STRONGER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY CARRY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS OR STORMS
INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES...BUT CONTINUED TO KEEP CHANCES NEAR
10 PERCENT /OR BELOW MENTIONABLE/.

NF

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS SATURDAY HAS GOTTEN NEARER...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO EVOLVE
THEIR DEPICTION OF THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME.
RATHER THAN MAINTAIN A TIGHT LOW...CONSENSUS IS NOW FOR ONE LOBE OF
VORTICITY TO SWING QUICKLY AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN BEST LIFT PASSES THE PANHANDLES EARLY
ON SATURDAY AND PUTS A DAMPER ON POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS COULD STILL LEAD TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST LOW- TO MID-50S DEWPOINTS MAKING IT INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HIGH SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED FOR ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE 50-70 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE BULK OF THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS
OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE OK STATE LINE WITH RAIN CHANCES STAYING CLOSER TO THE
STATE LINE AS WELL. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO IS FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND THUS POOLING OF MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PANHANDLES. SO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY
AS WELL.

WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THEN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
BY THAT TIME THOUGH...DIFFERENCES AMONG GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM TIMING
KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...SINCE THE ECMWF COMES IN WITH POST-FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE
70S AND THE GFS GIVES PRE-FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE 80S TO 90S.

NF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MEET ELEVATED TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
/MAINLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES/...FINE GRASSY FUELS
HAVE NOT DRIED OUT TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOLLOWING RECENT RAIN EVENTS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE FUELS...BUT AT THIS TIME
EXPECT ONLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THOSE DAYS.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                50  85  56  84  51 /   0   0  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  52  88  57  86  53 /   0   0   0  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              47  83  52  80  44 /   0  10   5  20   5
BORGER TX                  54  86  60  87  54 /   0   0   5  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              50  86  58  86  49 /   0   5  10  20  10
CANYON TX                  49  86  56  85  50 /   0   0  10  20  20
CLARENDON TX               50  85  58  85  56 /   0   0  10  30  30
DALHART TX                 47  85  53  83  44 /   0  10  10  10   5
GUYMON OK                  50  87  56  85  48 /   0   0   0  20  10
HEREFORD TX                50  86  56  85  50 /   0   5  10  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  86  59  85  55 /   0   0   0  30  30
PAMPA TX                   52  84  57  85  53 /   0   0   5  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                52  85  60  85  57 /   0   0   5  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              53  86  61  85  59 /   0   0   5  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6



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