Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 181829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

18Z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies expected through the
period. Gusty north winds will gradually decrease through the
afternoon, becoming light and variable by evening. Winds are
expected to become breezy out of the southwest towards the end of
this forecast period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1222 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

Surface wind speeds have decreased below advisory criteria
across the TX/OK Panhandles prompting an early cancellation of
the wind advisory that was in effect until 3PM. This is mostly
due to a decreasing pressure gradient as the main 850-500mb wave
shifts east (in spite of better mixing).


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/


Strong cold front moving through the Panhandles this morning will
promote windy conditions for all areas. The strongest winds are
expected to occur between sunrise and noon as we get some better
mixing, with winds diminishing thereafter. Some areas have
already gusted 45 to 50 mph. Expect that sustained winds will
range in the 30 to 39 mph range. Will keep an eye on this system
and some areas may need to be upgraded to High Wind Warning if
stronger gusts get reported. Wind Advisories are in effect for all
of the Panhandles until 3 PM CST today.

High temperatures today have already occurred shortly after
midnight as several areas were still mild in the 60s and even
lower 70s. Although the 24 hour highs have already been met, the
afternoon maximum temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s
(NW) to mid 50s (SE). Strong north winds combined with the
morning low temperatures, expect that the wind chills will be in
the upper 20s (NW) to lower 40s(SE) this morning. Elevated Fire
Weather possible today and tomorrow (See Fire Weather Discussion).

Cool northerly flow will remain in play until Sunday afternoon, as
surface winds shift back to the southwest and high temperatures
are expected to be around 60 for most of the Panhandles.

Upper level high pressure will slowly amplify off the Pacific and
track eastward over the Baja Peninsula through midweek. As a
result heights will start to increase and warmer temperatures
will be in store. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly clear skies. A weak disturbance may clip the
Panhandles on Tuesday providing a brief cooldown with highs in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Currently no precipitation anticipated
with this disturbance.

The upper level high will continue to amplify and a gradual
warming will continue over the Panhandles through the end of the
work week. Highs on Wednesday expected to be in the mid 60s,
Thanksgiving looks to be right around 70, and mid 70s for Friday.

Holiday Weekend Outlook. Models in decent agreement. Current
precipitation chances look minimal.  Friday has been covered as
currently forecast to be mild and dry, however cooler air and
breezy north winds may be in store on Saturday. So if you`re more
of a mild to warm weather shopper, then Friday looks good.
Saturday may still be mild for part of the day, but it all
depends on the time of the cold front that the models have
hinted. Right now it looks like a late afternoon front, and
therefore highs might still be mild and in the low 70s, but once
the front moves through winds will shift out of the north and look
to be in the 20 to 30 mph range, with temperatures quickly
dropping and wind chills coming into play. Sunday all around looks
to be cool with highs in the low 50s, and fairly light winds.
Right now the early part of the weekend looks good, but if the
timing of the cold front speeds up, then that can change the
entire weekend forecast. Stay tuned for updates.


Elevated Fire Weather expected late this morning into early
afternoon. Even though temperatures will be quite cool today with
the cold front, strong north wind accompanied by very dry air
could bring relative humidities down close to 20 percent for a
good portion of the central and eastern Panhandles. It looks like
the elevated Fire Weather will be brief and should last 1 to 3

Sunday southwest winds will return and relative humidities will
once again dip into the upper teens to 20 percent range. Therefore
elevated Fire Weather is expected again on Sunday afternoon.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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