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000
FXUS64 KAMA 050550 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD
REASONING. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DURG NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL SITES AS CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD AFFECT NRN TAF SITES INITIALLY ON
THURSDAY...THEN SPREAD SEWD TO INCLUDE KAMA TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW WITH
AMENDMENTS PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

UPDATE...
SEEING SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND HAD A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SLEET HERE AT
THE WFO. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS THIS EVENING ACCORDINGLY. LOOKING
AT THE EVENING AMA SOUNDING AND GIVEN ANTICIPATED CONTINUED COOLING
AS DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME VERY BRIEF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THIS PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY ROAD PROBLEMS...AND THUS PLAN ON LEAVING THE START TIME
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HAS ARRIVED THUS FAR STILL SUPPORTS ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT REMAINING LIGHT...AND THE PRECIP SHOULD BE CHANGING
TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A WSW
TO ENE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PERSISTENT BAND OF ENHANCED 700-600MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS
BAND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOST LIKELY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. OUTSIDE OF THE BAND...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VERY MINIMAL/PERHAPS LARGELY ABSENT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
ASIDE FROM SOME FLURRIES AS WE/LL LIKELY SEE AN ABRUPT CUTOFF TO THE
SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE MESOSCALE BANDING. BROADER FORCING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH/BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET THEN ARRIVES
THURSDAY EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD BUT LESS
INTENSE SNOWFALL. MAY SEE A NEW FRONTOGENETIC BAND DEVELOP FARTHER
SOUTH...CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE BANDING...STILL APPEAR REASONABLE. THINK THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN
THE MORE PERSISTENT BAND AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE WITH THE SECONDARY BAND...WITH A MINIMUM IN BETWEEN. WILL
LIKELY TRY TO NAIL DOWN THE BANDING A LITTLE MORE IN THE FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS AND DECREASE POPS SOME OUTSIDE OF THE ANTICIPATED
BANDING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY GO DOWNHILL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. GRADUALLY LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS
THROUGHOUT THIS FCST CYCLE. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD IMPACT THE NRN TAF
SITES FIRST ON THURSDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD SEWD TO INCLUDE KAMA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST
BEYOND THIS CURRENT FCST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING
THE ABOVE ELEMENTS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

DISCUSSION...
OLD MAN WINTER HAS MOVED IN OVER THE PANHANDLES AND IS HERE TO STAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SNOW. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING IT VERY LIKELY THAT AMARILLO WILL SET A NEW RECORD
COLD MAX TEMPERATURE. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN TO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
THEN SLOWLY SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TWO HEAVIER BANDS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE FROM THE I 40 CORRIDOR NEAR THE NM STATE LINE UP TOWARDS
SPEARMAN...THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
WITHIN THIS BAND...COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP TO 5 INCHES.
A SECOND BAND COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
THIS BAND...AND THUS THE SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MORE RECORD COLD HIGHS...AND POSSIBLY SOME RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY
EJECTS OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION GIVEN A STOUT JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WITH
THIS...WOULD EXPECT A DEEPER...AND LESS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. STILL DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS...AND THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIR MASS EVEN
VERY SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF COULD RESULT IN SNOW TOTALS UPWARDS OF 2
INCHES GIVEN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE COLD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS AIR
MASS MODIFICATION OCCURS...BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
ADDITION...WIDESPREAD SNOW IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$