Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252307

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
607 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Complex setup will keep confidence low for the 00Z TAF issuance.
Showers have moved out of the terminals while a brief period of
VFR has moved it. These conditions will be short lived as we are
seeing low clouds build in behind the southward moving cold front.
There is also another chance for storms overnight tonight for
KAMA while chances are much lower for the northern zones. Have
continued PROB30 group for KAMA and KDHT for tomorrow midday as
storms may move far enough north to affect the terminals. Low
cloud and possible fog could also affect each terminalovernight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 517 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

Current satellite and radar show showers and storms that engulfed
the Panhandles this morning and early afternoon have almost exited
the area. The northeast Panhandles will see these showers for
another 1 to 3 hours. A shortwave trough behind these showers will
allow for some lift but storms that move into the area that has
already been impacted by the surface cold front have been
fizzling out. Storms south of the front in the warmer area have
been holding together. It`s still possible that a few showers or
storms may make it far enough north to get to the I-40 corridor.

Expect some increase moisture return later tonight and scattered
showers or possible thunderstorms could return to the Panhandles.
The upper level trough over the western CONUS that has provided
this prefrontal southerly flow is now working its way west over
the Central Plains and towards the Great Lakes. The surface front
that has brought cooler northerly flow will likely stay in place
through the majority of the work week, with Thursday and Fridays
flow more out of the east. As a result high temperatures will be
about 15 degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
slightly recover on Thursday and Friday, but still look to be 5 to
10 degrees below normal.

Expect the trend of showers and thunderstorms with moderate to
heavy rain to continue this week. While the aforementioned upper
level trough will pass across the northern Plains this week, at
the same time a cut-off low is working on setting up over the
southern NV, western AZ area. This low is expected to stall out as
high pressure attempts to build over the Western US. The position
of this low could dictate just how much moisture gets pushed into
our area as we will be predominantly under a moist southwest flow
aloft. The low will slowly lift north until the start of the
weekend, where it looks like another upper level trough will
impact the Pacific Northwest and aid in accelerating the cut-off
lows exit to the north over the Wyoming and western Montana area.

Residual moisture will allow for convective showers to occur with
warming due to daytime Friday and Saturday, as the cut-off low
will be well to the north by this time. Model diverge a bit with
the extended solution. Overall a warming trend toward at least
near normal temperatures is expected starting Sunday, as either
strong southerly flow ahead of another trough sets up over the
Panhandles(GFS model, more moist solution), or high pressure that
has been setting up over the OK/AR area attempts to strengthen
with the Panhandles under drier southerly flow aloft (ECMWF
model, dry solution). Right now high temperatures Sunday and
Monday are only in the mid 70s to near 80, but if these solutions
continue to suggest the warmer air, we will likely need to have
most of the Panhandles into the 80s.


AVIATION...18Z TAFS...Previous Discussion...
MVFR/LIFR TAFS expected for the TAF period. Low clouds likely to
persist for the next 24 hours. Current satellite and radar
indicate that storms may be diminishing from the western
Panhandles. KDHT may only see precipitation here over the next
hour, as a storms is moving over the TAF site, then see VCSH for
the next few hours. KAMA should see rain with some thunder for
through about 20Z then may see a break as well. KGUY is expected
to see showers pick up around 19z and should persist through about
21z as a TEMPO group has this covered. Will amend TAF if showers
persist. Break in the precipitation after 22Z for most of the
area. Showers may develop on the back side with afternoon heating,
but confidence is too low and will amend TAFS as needed. Winds
out of the north 10-15 at KDHT and KGUY, with KAMA following here
by about 20-23Z. Due to high moisture across the Panhandles and
continued low clouds, IFR- LIFR conditions possible in the early
morning hours and can`t rule out morning fog with low visibility.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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