Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 282003
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
403 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Staying cool with small chances for more showers...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Chilly-weather producing low pressure
continues to pull northeast away from the area this afternoon. Per
the usual for northern Michigan, system backside low level moisture
lingered quite a bit longer than initially anticipated, as plenty of
cloud cover lingered across the north half of the area into early
this afternoon (still mostly cloudy across the tip of the mitt and
eastern upper Michigan). Different story down near Saginaw Bay, with
plenty of sunshine most of the day and much milder conditions.

Current system is part of broad troughing now well estabilished
across much of the northern half of the country. Next wave already
rotating northeast within this troughing back across the Central
Plains. Large warm air advection driven wing of rain running out
ahead of this system through the corn belt. This wave will largely
shear out overnight, with the northern extent of the waa wing doing
the same. A surge of somewhat drier air follows this system to start
the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns: Cloud and temperature trends through
Saturday. Addressing that light shower potential tonight.

Details: Despite the ominous appearance of upstream radar showing
widespread rain, not overly convinced we will see much of this
activity survive as it heads further northeast into our area this
evening as parent wave shears out. Think some very light
rain/sprinkles are a definite possibility for at least the south
half of northern lower this evening, but with very minimal rainfall
amounts. Conditions look to remain dry north of the big Bridge.
Drier northerly flow becomes increasingly established heading
through the overnight, ending what rain threat there is in the
process. Despite the cool start, the return of more clouds
(especially northern lower) and maintenance of light winds will
prevent temperatures from falling too much, with readings largely
remaining in the 30s.

That dry northerly flow further increases Saturday morning as high
pressure rotates through Ontario. Active baroclinic zone to our
south becomes even more so during the day along and north of a
developing Ohio Valley warm front. Some of this activity may make a
run into southern sections of the area (mostly along and south of M-
55) by very late in the afternoon. This rain will be the beginnings
of a rather long duration and potentially heavy rain event that
looks to unfold Saturday night through Monday. More details on that
event can be found in the short term section to follow. Otherwise,
actually expecting to see quite a bit of at least filtered sunshine
on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Soaker Saturday Night into Sunday night...

High Impact Weather Potential...Rain could be heavy at times with
the warm advection on Saturday night into Sunday night

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Saturday night the warm front is set up
over Lower Michigan with the GFS and ECMWF in line with the general
position and strength of the baroclinic zone. As the sfc low moves
into Missouri, the southerly flow is expected to increase across the
baroclinic zone which is expected to be roughly from the
Michigan/Indiana border to the M-32. 500 mb pattern shows difluence
aloft with jet streaks being ejected from the 500 mb low and into
the Upper Great Lakes along the warm front. Sunday, the models moves
the axis of the heaviest from downstate into the central part of N
Lower by 00z. The issue to watch will be the convection that will
break out near the sfc low. If it moves too far east, it could
disrupt the southerly flow into the rain, and we could end up with
what has happened the last couple of possible heavy rain systems. At
this point, the Pwat with the soundings from Sunday morning to
Monday morning hold onto values around or just above an 1.00" with
the model soundings over the 90% threshold of the median Pwat
sounding climatology. The sfc and 500 mb low begin to stack up and
the models expect heavy rain into Sunday night/Monday morning before
the cold front moves into the Upper Great Lakes. The cold front
moves through the forecast area by 18z, and the 700-500 mb dry slot
as well. This would end the heaviest rain for the region. There
could be period of nothing, and then drizzle for the afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns...As has been pointed out by some in the
public, we have had systems look good the last couple of weeks,
especially this last one, and then we get little rain. The things
going for it is that models, and the ensembles are in basic
agreement with the means around the 1.5 to 2.0" amounts and the
spreads being between 0.10 to 3.00". The ensembles are clumping
around the means so think that the most likely 48 hour amounts will
be 1.00 to 2.50" across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Models are in pretty good agreement (at the moment) with the
tracking of this deep center of low pressure next week. From Monday
night through Tuesday...this low will lift from Wisconsin, right
over the U.P. and skirt just south of Hudson Bay. So at the start of
our period...we`ll be transitioning from the good slug of gulf
moisture that brought rainfall Monday and first half of Tuesday...to
wrap around moisture for the second half of Tuesday and Tuesday
night.  During this time...temperatures will drop low enough that we
could see some wet snowflakes mixing in...particularly in the higher
terrain of interior locations.  Moisture then strips out on
Wednesday, with temperatures beginning to moderate on Thursday...and
nearly climo on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

MVFR producing cloud deck now steadily eroding from south to
north, and should continue to do so for the next few hours. Clouds
will then thicken from the same direction later this afternoon and
evening, but should remain well within VFR category. May even see
a few very light showers fall from this cloud deck this evening,
although no restrictions are anticipated. Clouds are expected to
again scatter out some heading through Saturday morning. Gusty
winds this afternoon expected to subside tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Winds will continue to diminish through this evening as they
veer more northerly with time. Winds will remain with a decidedly
northward component through Saturday, increasing in speed some later
tonight and Saturday morning. May see the return of some isolated
SCA producing winds gusts during this period, especially down near
Manistee. Looking ahead, wet and cool weather is expected for the
first half of next week with SCA conditions likely returning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



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