245
FXUS63 KAPX 150626
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
226 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies with warming temperatures today.

- Initial shower and thunder chances confined to eastern upper
  later today into tonight.

- Next chances for more widespread rain arrive Wednesday /
  Thursday. Potential for torrential thunderstorms Wednesday
  afternoon / evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:

Surface high pressure present over the lower Great Lakes. Quasi-
stationary frontal boundary oriented along a regime of zonal
flow stretching from Montana trough the north end of Lake Superior
and into northern Ontario. Core of ridging overhead coupled with
ample return flow spells a lot of heat across the Northwoods today,
with convectively charged waves passing to the north and west along
the aforementioned frontal boundary. The front will slowly sag south
and east with time, which, coupled with an increasingly moist
airmass, will increase potential for shower and storm chances to
return to the picture, first across eastern upper to night,
eventually shifting focus across parts of northern lower on
Wednesday.

Forecast Details:

Still looking at a decent plume of Canadian wildfire smoke to give
us hazy skies today, but with the advancing zonal flow, should
become confined to aloft and pose minimal to no health concerns,
unlike the last couple days. Otherwise, southwest flow will be
pumping in the heat to the region... highs generally anticipated to
peak anywhere from 84 to 94 (warmest downsloping areas, coolest on
those beach locales). Will have to watch upstream convective trends
as that front sags closer to the region... anticipating complexes of
storms to ride along the front across western upper and into Lake
Superior throughout the afternoon. As the front gets closer to
eastern upper later in the evening into the early overnight, shower
and thunder chances begin to emerge, especially the farther north
and west one goes. how much rain falls in eastern upper Tuesday
evening / night will heavily depend on these storms maintaining
themselves into an increasingly hostile environment characterized by
a loss of diurnal instability. For now, not expecting much other
than some passing showers, especially along and west of I-75.
Realistically, any given spot could pick up a general 0.25-0.50" of
rain in the event an embedded storm / downpour can be realized
within the decaying convective complex, but wouldn`t be surprising
to see most spots see 0.10" or less of rainfall by Wednesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Stationary front will slowly sag south and eastward across the
region into Wednesday, with little to no convective wave support
anticipated through the day. That spells largely disorganized, pulse
dominant convection to blossom across northern lower... with a
particular focus on a corridor south / east of a Beulah to Rogers
City line, as the front will likely hover just NW of that line, and
thus leave the rest of northern lower in sort of a "meteorological
purgatory" characterized by humid conditions and a lack of shower
coverage. For those that manage to bag some rain Wednesday... could
certainly be on the torrential side considering PWATs swelling in
excess of 1.5 (surface dewpoints also approach 70). Lack of
appreciable storm motion and climatologically status-quo instability
(progged generally 1000 - 1500 J/kg ahead of the front) will be more
than enough to bring about storm development with localized
rainfalls in excess of 2.00" certainly on the table. WPC maintains a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across the region for
Wednesday. As far as severe concerns go for Wednesday... not exactly
a banner setup, but with somewhat appreciable bulk shear (20-25kts),
suppose that a gustier storm or two will be possible, and in the
event that an updraft collides with outflow boundaries (which will
likely be smattered all over the place like someone just threw a
batch of spaghetti on a wall)... suppose that in an extreme case,
some hail may be possible too. As such, SPC has slapped a Marginal
Risk over much of northern lower to catch that potential.

After all that is set and done, we finally get ourselves a much more
prolific wave to pass through the region Wednesday night, which
should (on paper) increase shower coverage across the area to a much
more widespread footprint, but of course into an environment...
characterized by diminishing instability... so not really
anticipating much in the way of thunder, or even a well-maintained
rain shield with this feature as it passes through the region.
Following the passage of this wave (and, the stationary front as
well), anticipating a cooler to (dare I say it?) chilly day on
Thursday, with highs likely struggling to get to 70 in places.
Shower coverage should diminish from NW to SE through the morning
into the afternoon, with increasing sunshine... that is if we aren`t
sentenced to endure another plume of Canadian wildfire smoke in the
wake of this feature`s passage (given the orientation of flow, it
wouldn`t shock me). If you`re looking to give the ole A/C unit a
break (again, smoke dependent), Thursday and Friday nights will
likely be the times to do that, as lows plummet into the upper 40s
and lower 50s (coolest spots) and upper 50s along the immediate
coasts. Another wave looks to pass through this weekend, which could
spell some additional shower and thunder chances Saturday into
Sunday, but details on that feature look pretty murky at this
juncture.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Still expecting some MVFR to even IFR producing fog/mist to
develop early this morning at KCIU. May also see some brief
drops in visibility at KMBL early this morning with mist
development. Any fog/mist will burn off quickly after sunrise,
leaving behind VFR conditions across the area under just some
passing high clouds at times. Southwest winds may become a touch
gusty this afternoon, especially at KCIU and KPLN. Light and
non-impactul winds otherwise.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB