Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 300209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1009 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

High pressure centered just to our east slowly giving way to
approaching Minnesota arrowhead cold front and pre-frontal band of
deeper moisture. Showers/storms firing to our west over northwest
Wisconsin and western upper Michigan on nose of instability axis
and in corridor of deeper forcing. This area should slowly
move east, likely weakening as it does so. Still think a few
showers/storms will be possible in the early morning hours,
particularly across eastern upper Michigan, along the east moving
instability gradient. No severe weather anticipated. Elsewhere,
just some increasing high and mid clouds. Light winds, coupled
with lingering clear skies and near surface moisture, will likely
produce some patchy fog, particularly across southeast sections of
the area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

High impact weather potential: small chances for thunderstorms

High pressure over Lake Huron and eastern lower MI this
afternoon, contributing to a quiet and warm late-summer day. A
small patch of stratus is still hanging on in central lower MI,
near Harrison. Otherwise just some cumulus to deal with (and not
much of that), as well as cirrus in upper MI. An upstream cold
front is slowly moving across northern MN, and is progged to reach
eastern upper MI Tuesday morning. Precip trends are the main

Tonight...earlier MCS trying to progress eastward across upper MI
has died out on our latitude. Some showers/storms continue further
north, over eastern Superior, ahead of well-defined MCV. Waiting
to see if anything can refire on our latitude to impact the region
tonight. Well upstream, signs are not promising, with a less-
than-impressive cu field over western upper MI and northern WI.
Residual warm air aloft is leading to some capping (700mb temps
around 8c), making surface-based convection a struggle to our
west. But how about something closer to home? SPC HRRR is
insisting that the cu field in central upper MI will shortly
interact with the tail end of the MCV crossing Superior late this
afternoon. This results in some showers crossing eastern upper MI
early this evening. A sharp instability gradient runs n-s across
eastern upper mi, another factor in favor of convection. Will be
cautiously holding onto some small evening pops to account for
this. Then likely comes a short break for a few hours, before
nocturnally-induced cooling aloft and associated steepening of
lapse rates help cook off a few more cells. This activity will
not be well-organized nor widespread.

In general, will be reducing pops and coverage thereof. Anticipate a
dry forecast near/s of M-32, and just chancy pops to the north. A
partly cloudy/mostly clear evening, with an increase in cirrus
overnight. Min temps near 60 (se sections) to the upper 60s (near
Lake MI). Will mention fog in parts of northern lower again

Tuesday...cold front will reach eastern upper MI in the morning, and
make uneven progress into northern lower in the afternoon (masked by
lake breezes at times). Wsw surface winds ahead of the front are
largely parallel to the boundary, implying a lack of convergence.
Similarly, there is little in the wave of shortwaves ahead of the
front to erode capping and contribute to deep convection. So not
much to hang one/s hat on regarding areas that will be favored to
see precip. We should see a healthy amount of instability develop in
northern lower, with mlcapes perhaps nearing 1500j/kg. But forcing
is unimpressive, and 0-6km bulk shear less than 20kt. Perhaps, if
things break just right, we could see a few stronger pulse storms,
but svr threat is not at all impressive. And in general will be
keeping pops just chancy. Will end pops late in the day eastern
upper/far northern lower MI as drier/more stable air works in post-

Max temps mid 70s eastern upper to mid 80s se sections.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Tuesday night through Thursday...

Perhaps a few leftover showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms
Tuesday evening across the southeast portions of the forecast area
from any lingering instability (few hundred j/kg of mixed layer
cape) as the surface cold front exits stage right. Otherwise, drier
air (mean 1000-500 mb relative humidity falls from about 60 percent
down to 30 percent) advects in from the northwest ending any
activity. Surface high pressure then builds in Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a bit of moisture moves through the
trough aloft but this is only expected to produce partly cloudy
skies (though would not be totally shocked if we ended up squeezing
out a few sprinkles). Heights begin to rebound Thursday which should
lead to less clouds and increasing sunshine. Temperatures will be
cooler Wednesday and Thursday with highs only in the upper 60s to
middle 70s. Lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s Tuesday night and
the cooler upper 40s to middle 50s Wednesday night.


Models are in pretty good agreement through the extended, which in
and of itself is suspicious. 500mb pattern shows long wave trough
moving toward the eastern seaboard by the end of the work week, with
strong upper level ridging building over the central conus and
shifting east into the weekend.

Closer to earth, a surface high builds over the great lakes Friday
into early Sunday to keep things high and dry. Seasonal temperatures
will moderate a bit as the weekend progresses to above normal by
Sunday. Overnight lows will be on the cooler side of seasonal, but
will also moderate to climo by Sunday.

The next weather maker is progged to move in from the northern
plains on Monday. Grids will reflect this with the introduction of
chance pops Sunday night into Monday...and some more ambitious pops
on Monday per blended solutions. Thinking this all might be coming
in a little too fast and that chances for any appreciable rainfall
will be better Monday night into Tuesday.  But that`s a long way
off yet to be drawing such conclusions.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Upstream cold front will slowly cross the area Tuesday into
Tuesday evening. Just enough moisture/forcing to likely kick off a
few showers and thunderstorms, starting near sunrise for KPLN,
expanding across the rest of the sites during the day. Confidence
is extremely low in exact coverage, so will simply use vicinity
shower wording to cover for now. Otherwise, looking at another
night for fog/br formation. Will trend a touch more
pessimistically, introducing ifr conditions later tonight at KMBL,
and mvfr vis at both KAPN and KPLN.

Light/calm winds tonight increase just a touch in speed out of a
general west direction on Tuesday.


Issued at 338 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Winds/waves unimpressive into Tuesday. High pressure over Lake
Huron will gradually get pushed aside by a cold front, which will
enter northern MI on Tuesday. Scattered shower/t-storm activity
expect with the front. Southwesterly winds ahead of the front will
become nw to n behind it on Wednesday. Those post-frontal winds
will become a bit breezy/gusty by Wednesday.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Sullivan
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