Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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931
FXUS61 KBGM 260537
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
137 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tonight. Any lingering early morning showers will give way to
sunshine during the day Friday. High pressure and warm air will
build back into NY and PA for the weekend, before another frontal
system spreads thunderstorms into our region late Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
745 PM Update...
As expected, other than an isolated shower that drifted along the
NY Thruway, there has been a lull in activity this afternoon-
early evening. However, clouds also broke up to allow heating,
which has resulted in instability. This is pretty much going as
anticipated, though the forecast has been updated to finesse the
timing and location of inbound convection based on upstream radar
and latest high resolution models. As discussed below,
thunderstorms will move into the region but with only a little
shear /though increasing as front approaches/ so severe threat
will be marginal. Best chance of isolated strong wind gusts will
be in the Central Southern Tier-Finger Lakes though activity will
tend to weaken as it presses east.

Previous discussion...
Expect a break in rain chances late this afternoon into early
this evening then another wave will approach from the west later
this evening along with a weak surface cold front. Some
destabilization is expected ahead of this system through early
this evening as a very moist low-level airmass advects eastward
ahead of the front with dew points into the lower 70s in most
places. Expect MLCAPE values to reach to near 1000 J/kg by early
this evening in most places with deep layer shear around 25 kts.
These factors along with generally weak large-scale forcing should
produce a few thunderstorms across the area this evening however
the severe risk should be marginal at best with storms struggling
to organize in the weak shear environment. High resolution models
appear to be showing some organized convection over western NY and
northwest Pa early this evening however the convection appears to
either diminish, becoming disorganized or dive southeast across
central Pa as it moves toward our area later in the evening.

After some left-over low clouds early Friday morning Friday looks
to be a nice sunny day with lowering humidity as temperatures
climb to between 80 and 85 degrees with dew points falling through
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the northeastern U.S. Friday night
through Saturday, bringing fair skies and gradually warmer
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another storm system will move through southern Ontario province
on Sunday. An associated front will set off scattered
thunderstorms across NY, with a lesser chance over PA, late Sunday
into Monday.

An upper level ridge will transition to a low amplitude trough
over the northeastern states by mid week, bringing unsettled
weather back to our region.

Temperatures will average above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal boundary is slowly moving towards east this morning and
an generating a few light rain showers over the region. These
showers are expected to last for a few more hours than move east
of the region. A mixture of VFR and MVFR cigs are present this
morning across the area. Expect conditions to slowly deteriorate
and fall to fuel alternate or MVFR criteria by 12Z for all sites.
Ceilings will slowly lift Fri morning and become VFR at all sites
by the afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, then transition
to Westerly around 5 to 10 knots through the afternoon, then
become light and variable after sunset.

OUTLOOK...

Friday Night through midday Sunday...VFR except for possible early
morning valley fog KELM.

Late Sunday through Monday...Restrictions possible in
showers/thunderstorms as front passes through.

Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH/MDP



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