Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 280709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER DOWN FROM CANADA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
TEMPORARILY BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...YET ALSO SPREAD
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NY AND PA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL RETURN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
125 AM UPDATE...
AN EXTREME OUTER RIM OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS NOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK TO WESTERN CATSKILLS...IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF THE DEPARTING
NOR`EASTER. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SLACKENING WINDS YET ALSO FALLING TEMPERATURES DUE
TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. A MESONET SITE AT ARKPORT NEAR HORNELL IS
WELL BELOW ZERO AT THIS HOUR...WITH FRESH RECENT COAT OF FLUFFY
SNOW...CLEAR SKY...AND CALM WIND.

COLD YET CRISP ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER OUR REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE MIDWEST-GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S.

VERY ABRUPT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKY...CALMING WIND...AND VERY
DRY AIR. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY. WE ARE ALREADY
AIMING BELOW GUIDANCE BUT WITH THIS SET UP THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PRETTY BIG SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM RIDGE-TO-VALLEY. MANY
VALLEYS IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS AND PERHAPS ALSO DEEPER VALLEYS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS WILL PROBABLY GET BELOW ZERO...WITH
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS AT LEAST SINGLE DIGITS. TOWARDS DAWN...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH AT
LEAST IN OUR WESTERN ZONES-LAKE PLAIN WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CREEP UP FROM THEIR EARLIER LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE..
WARM ADVECTION PCPN WL BEGIN TO SPREAD LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. FORCING CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ALONG WITH
COLD TEMPS SO HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL SNOW FOR THUR NGT. NW FLOW
BHND FRONT WL MV IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LK EFFECT EXPECTED DRG THE
DAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO -18 AND THAT WL BE COLD ENUF FOR LK SNOWS TO
FALL IN 310-320 FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE FROM
12 HOURS AGO. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A STRONG STORM MOVING NE FROM TEXAS. BETTING
ON IT BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. GFS AND EURO HAVE 850MB
TEMPS ABOVE 0C IN NE PA BUT BELIEVE TRACK WILL BE FURTHER TO THE
SE KEEPING THE WARMER AIR ALSO FURTHER SE. CONTINUED COLDER THAN
AVERAGE ESPECIALLY EARLY AND LATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COLD AND ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD, NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL USHER
IN VERY COLD AIR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. DUE TO THE FORECAST PROFILES BEING TOO COLD
FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT. LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHES
FOR SATURDAY WITH FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
LIKELY ARRIVING BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT MORE LAKE EFFECT AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

SKIES CLEARING AS THE STORM MOVES FURTHER NE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 KTS
LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS BGM/AVP DURING THE AFTN. TONIGHT
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT / THU AM...VFR.

THU AFTN TO FRI MORN...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW.

FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
IN NY.

SAT TO  SAT NGT...BECOMING VFR.

SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW LATE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...PCF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC






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