Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 190228
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
928 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing skies through tonight will be followed quickly with
increasing clouds and periods of rain by Monday afternoon.
Steady rain will lift to northern New York Monday night, but we
will still run the risk of a passing shower or sprinkle. Mild
temperatures on Monday will be followed by near record warmth
from Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
925 PM update...Just high level clouds over the region as
temperatures continue to slowly fall this evening. Temperatures
will fall through about midnight then hold steady and slowly
rise toward daybreak as significant warm air advection begins
under strong southwest flow just off the surface.

130 PM Update...Clearing skies will gradually take place this
afternoon into tonight as surface high crests overhead and upper
ridge begins to build. This will be especially true from the
Southern Tier into NEPA, with areas downwind of Lake Ontario
taking a bit longer to lose the full effect of lake instability.
Transitory high pressure will move off the East Coast fairly
quickly this evening with deepening southwest flow returning
around the building upper level ridge over the Eastern CONUS.
Looking for a first half of the night low temperature, with a
non-diurnal trend of climbing temperatures by morning as deep
warm advection begins.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
130 PM Update...Deep warm and moist advection continues through
Monday with a surface warm frontal feature lifting through the
area. A good consensus of the hi-rez models suggest upper level
jet streak interaction with the surface front. Ample moisture is
available with PWAT transfer open from the Gulf. Initial wave
looks to bring a period of rain across the region starting late
morning in the western zones and much of the afternoon across
the east/north. Best synoptic features appear to set up north of
CNY/NEPA on Monday night with a significant decrease of rain
chances from north-south in the warm sector. Still keeping
mention of low chance PoPs for the Southern Tier/NEPA due to
passing shower, or sprinkles possibility. Best chance of showers
across the northern zones in closer proximity to front.

Rainfall through 12Z Tuesday is not the most confident part of
the forecast today given some model divergence. NAM appears to
be rather bullish at approaching an inch in several areas, while
EC/GFS/Canadian models are more in the 0.5-0.75 inch arena.
Driest area looks to be much of NEPA with a quarter to half inch
gradient from Hazleton to the NY border. Even with patchy snow
melt of 1-2 inches in the worst covered areas, this rainfall
should be no immediate problem...however, as the week
progresses, runoff from a series of shower events looks to
possibly just continue to pile up.

Temperatures Monday will be mild in the 40s for most locations,
but tempered a bit by rain what they could be given 925MB temps
of 5-10C. Temperatures through Monday night appear as though
they will just keep rising in the warm sector to set the stage
for a balmy Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An anomalously warm, southwesterly flow pattern will continue
through the long term period.

A quasi-stationary front will extend from the midwest into the
Great Lakes for Tuesday and early Wednesday, with a powerful
anticyclone sitting off the Carolina coast. This will keep a
very mild southerly flow moving into NY and PA, and with little
or no snow pack to the south, airmass modification will be less
than usual. 925mb temperatures in the +11C to +13C range should
easily support temperatures in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday,
regardless of cloud cover and potential showers ahead of the
front.

After a cool/dry shot Wednesday night into Thursday,
southwest flow will set up again for the end of the period. A
few weak systems will pass through the region Friday into
Saturday, with the slight chance for mixed precipitation early
Friday. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the event and low QPF
numbers, we are not mentioning freezing precipitation for Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through Monday morning with just
high clouds overnight and ceilings around 4K feet developing
Monday morning. During the afternoon a warm front will be in
the vicinity with rain developing. Flight category will drop
into the Alternate Required category with KBGM possibly into IFR
late in the TAF period.

Low level wind shear is likely on Monday as southerly winds at
2K feet off the deck are around 35 knots. Surface winds will be
light initially overnight then become south/southeast at 5-10
knots. Southerly winds Monday at 8-12 knots.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Periods of rain and flight
restrictions as disturbances move through the region.

Tuesday night through Wednesday morning...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Chance of restrictions
and rain showers. Rain may mix with snow late Wednesday night-
Thursday morning for the NY terminals.

Friday...VFR with chance of showers. Local flight restrictions
possible in showers/fog.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM


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