Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 270040
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RELENTLESS COLD WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OUR WEATHER WILL MODERATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE...
HV UPDATE T/TD VALUES BUT THEY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS COLD AIR MVS IN ON NRLY FLOW
TONIGHT. UPR TROF OVR NERN U.S. WL CONTINUE TO BRING BROAD SW FLOW
ALOFT TO THE CWA OVRNGT AND WITH SUBTLE WVS MVG UP EXPECT VRY LGT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THRU THE BULK OF THE OVRNGT.
AT MOST, MAY SEE JUST A MINOR DUSTING OF ACCUMS BY MRNG. DRY BLYR
WL CONTINUE TO NEGATE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT HV RETAINED CHC
POPS THRU DAYBREAK THEN DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES AFT THIS TIME.

WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND JUST 5KTS OR LESS OF WIND
COURTESY OF BUILDING HIGH, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. ALL ELSE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK JUST A QUICK CLEANUP
OF GRIDS FOR ONGOING CONDS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

230 PM UPDATE...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
JUST AHEAD OF IT IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH
LIFT COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE ALLEGHENIES TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP THE BACK
EDGE OF THIS SNOW IS IN ERN OHIO BUT MOVING SLOWLY. THIS EVE THE
SNOW WILL END OR BECOME FLURRIES. LATE TONIGHT CAA INCREASES AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS ALIGN FROM THE NW. SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AGAIN ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT NOT ENOUGH WIND FOR A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FRIDAY BUT STILL A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IN THE MORNING AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH AND CAA
CONTINUES. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS OUT NW AND SHIFTS TO W. AN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CENTERED OVER ONONDAGA COUNTY FRIDAY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY SATURDAY. POSSIBLY COLD AND WINDY ENOUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN
INCH EXCEPT MAYBE IN ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA COUNTIES OVER 2 DAYS.

A LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT CLEARING THE SKIES AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOPEFULLY THIS TIME THE AIRMASS
WILL HAVE MODERATED SOME BEFORE IT BECOMES PARKED OVER PA/NY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN TEENS FRIDAY THEN WARM TO UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE...A TRANSITION THAT WILL NOT OCCUR QUIETLY.

SUNDAY BEGINS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BRISK
ZONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
IT LOOKS QUITE CERTAIN NOW THAT IT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW...YET IT ALSO SHOULD HIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES
ACCUMULATION...ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT WORST. BY DAWN MONDAY...WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND PROBABLY JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT BY
THEN /MAINLY CENTRAL NY/.

LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING QUICKLY
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BROAD SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR LINGERING LONGER NEAR THE SURFACE...YET QUICKLY
WARMING ALOFT...THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY SOME SNOW TUESDAY THEN WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW WARM THE SURFACE WILL
MANAGE TO GET CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL SNOW PACK...BUT AT THIS TIME
WE ARE FIGURING ON MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. COLD
FRONT THEN TO COME THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO SOME COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KAVP. BEYOND THIS TIME EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A HIGH END MVFR DECK LIKELY
SETTING UP FOR KBGM/KITH/KELM/KAVP WHILE KRME/KSYR WILL BE VFR.
FOR FRIDAY, CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
KITH WHERE HIGH END MVFR CEILING SHOULD PREDOMINATE.


.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN OR MIX AS SYSTEM MOVES
IN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PVF/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP/PCF






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