Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 261034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
634 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOW SITUATED ALONG THE
EAST COAST WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS SUGGEST A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE SRN TIER/NE PA LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT
REALLY INDICATING MUCH CHANCE FOR SVR WX THIS AFTERNOON AS BULK
SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. SPC HAS
REMOVED THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR ALL OF NYS BUT CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWAT ARE AROUND 1.50
INCHES. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND DEPARTING SHORT
WAVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S.

WEDNESDAY...A MORE WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH A PREFRONTAL
TROF IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
PERIOD. MODEL CAPE IS GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG BUT THIS COMBINED
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGER ENV WINDS WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SVR WX. CONTINUED HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.60 INCHES
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (SMALL MBE VECTORS) INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. INCREASED POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY
AND HIGH CHC NE PA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BUT
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN WED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
LESS.

THURSDAY...COOLER LESS HUMID AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER NE PA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL STILL
RESIDE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS NYS AND
LOWER 80S IN NE PA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SFC
HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAKING FOR COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON POPS AND TEMPS.
STILL LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS WANTS
TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND TO
LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY...THE
REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER TYPICAL
SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST AREAS
PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING HIGHER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS PRESENT OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART... EXPECT
SHOWERS TO REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR AN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISBY IN TSRA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND UNDER 12 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...

WED TO SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...KAH


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