Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 252330
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
730 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge of warm air will remain in place as weaker
low level systems pass by the area. This will keep temperatures
well above normal with a small risk of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
615 PM Update...Spotty light showers are long gone with just some
patchy scattered to broken mid clouds left over the area. We
removed any mention of showers for early this evening with this
update and also made some minor adjustments to temperature and dew
point grids for the evening based on latest observations and
trends. Similar to last night, expect a pretty good drop in temps
immediately after sunset due to dew points still being fairly low
and decoupling winds.

Original Discussion...Wv trickling thru this aftn triggered some
very lgt shwrs over the xtrm north along with a bit of cld cvr.
That system will pass well east of the area ovrngt lvg us gnrly
dry with sct clds. Temps has actually topped out in the mid and
upr 80s ahd of the clds but with upr 40s dew pts, shd drop fairly
quickly again this evening. Next wv aprchs for thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Have established a fairly stable ptrn with a stubborn upr rdg over
the est cst. Our fcst area is on the nrn and ern edge of the rdg
so any system topping the rdg may bring a chance of tstms, esp
during aftn htg.

First wv aprchs thu and passes thu ngt. this system shd bring some
sct to isltd tstms thu aftn into thu eve...flwd by renewed rdgg
on fri.

Another wv passes well west of the area on sat which could trigger
conv as well, again peaking in the aftn with htg.

It will be quite warm. While each day rchs into the 80s, sat looks
to be the wrmest as the rdg conts to bld and chance for conv is
lowest. Wld not be surprised to see a cpl temps hit 90f sat aftn,
esp over the nrn Finger Lakes into the SYR area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 pm Wednesday update...

Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a
ridge Thursday. Convection Saturday night into Monday night, then
maybe a break the rest of the long term. Temperatures remain above
normal throughout. Models in good agreement and used a blend of
the Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through TAF valid time. Scattered mid
level clouds will dissipate early this evening with mainly CI
overnight. A weak frontal boundary in the vicinity on Thursday will
bring a mid deck into the region mainly during the afternoon.
Isolated convection is also possible Thursday afternoon but not
included due to limited areal coverage and very late in TAF
period.

Light and variable tonight becoming S/SW Thursday afternoon at 5
to 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night through Monday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon and evening
thunderstorms possible any day with brief restrictions but best
chance will be Saturday to Monday. Also during this period rain
showers could reduce conditions. Starting Friday visibilities
could be reduced in the moist air mass to MVFR in haze and fog.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM



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