Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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613
FXUS61 KBGM 301847
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO
NY AND PA, STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
235 PM UPDATE...
A MID-ATMOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE SHOOTING OVER A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.

A SOLID WALL OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER BETWEEN 6Z AND 7Z, THEN SPREAD TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
8Z AND 9Z. OVER A HALF-INCH OF RAIN SHOULD FALL BY SUNRISE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN FA.

1218 PM UPDATE...
BESIDES A MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS
TO THE SKY COVER GRID. CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND NORTH IS
BATTLING AGAINST DESTRUCTIVE CUMULUS FORMATION, KEEPING SKIES
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
A NEAR STEADY STATE RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WHILE A
QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT LAYS DRAPED ACROSS NY AND PA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS SLOW TO PULL
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE FOCUS PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHEN WARM 850 MB TEMPS COMBINE WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS. ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE
A THREAT. WE BASED OUR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FIELDS ON THE NAM
DEPICTION OF SHOWALTERS.

DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIGRATE BACK
TOWARD THE LOWER 60S, THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT AAS
THE TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE
THU AS A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELYHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS INCLUDING RME AND
SYR...OTRW HTG HAS FILLED THE SC DECK BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA.
XPCT THE VFR DECK TO CONT THRU THE AFTN BEFORE ERODING SOMEWHAT
THIS EVE. WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGHER VFR DECK AHD OF A STRONG
WV APRCHG FROM THE OH VLY FOR SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FAIRLY
SHARP FNT END TO THE RAIN AFT 06Z...MVG FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EARLY MRNG HRS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A WIDESPREAD MVFR DECK
DVLPG A CPL HRS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE RAIN...WHICH CONTS THRU THE
END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED/THU...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM



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