Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 261925
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will bring us another foggy night tonight and
early Wednesday. later Wednesday, a cold front will push
through the area and trigger some scattered showers. Cooler air
behind the front will be over the area through the weekend,
with partly cloudy skies.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Enough instability to trigger some very isolated showers over
the higher elevations of the Catskills into northeast
Pennsylvania. However, very limited moisture in the low levels
and even drier air aloft is limiting them. Overnight, light
winds and fog once again as the we decouple early and the cool
air settles in the valleys.

For Wednesday into the evening, a surface cold front pushes
through with little support aloft. Some surface based
instability available along with low level convergence however
the ridging aloft makes for weak mid level lapse rates and
overall poor chances for significant convection. In fact,
showers may not even make it through the forecast before
dissipating. Will keep chance pops for showers but no thunder
for the frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 pm update...

This period will be much cooler. The surface front goes through
Wednesday night. Thursday will be dry with cold air advection
from the north at low and mid levels. High temperatures in the
low and mid 60s most with upper 60s southeast valleys such as
AVP/MSV.

Weak ridge of high pressure builds in Thursday night with clear
to partly cloudy skies. Low temps in the low and mid 40s.

Friday a digging upper level trough will drop southeast through
the Great Lakes. A weak surface low will form with some showers
mostly for Friday afternoon and evening but lingering into
Saturday. Rainfall amounts will be light. Similar high
temperatures Friday with low and mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 pm update...

Unsettled but the worst weather stays north. Temperatures at or
just above normal. Models in fair agreement.

Deep upper level trough over the area Friday night and Saturday
with scattered to isolated light showers. Highs Saturday only 55
to 60 with cloudy skies and windy conditions.

Saturday night building heights at all levels. High pressure at
the surface will drop winds and clear skies, allowing
temperatures to fall into the 30s. Frost possible but much
uncertainty on how cold and coverage.

This high pressure hangs on into early Tuesday. Temperatures
slowly warm to lows in the 40s and highs around 70 Tuesday. More
dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains in control bringing daytime VFR and
nighttime fog and IFR. Little change is expected in this TAF
period. There is a small chance that some afternoon convection
could develop over the Catskills, but the chance is small and
they should not affect any of the sites. After IFR and LIFR in
fog at some stations overnight, VFR returns Wednesday. Winds
will remain light

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR, but scattered
showers/minor restrictions possible Friday-Saturday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM



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