Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 221517
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1017 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally dense fog this morning will rise up and persist as a low
cloud cover this afternoon. A strong storm over the Mid-Atlantic
will bring rain and snow to NY and PA Sunday night through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM Update...Fog is taking longer to lift in many places with
areas still seeing visibilities around or below a quarter mile.
For this reason, extended Dense Fog advisory until 1 pm as trend
should be toward improving conditions early this afternoon. We
also extended the mention of fog in the gridded forecast through
early this afternoon.


Previous Discussion...Fog over NY and PA is forecast to become
less dense over the next few hours, as a wave moving in from the
southwest spreads a few showers into our forecast area and adds a
little mixing to the atmosphere.

Otherwise, low clouds should persist through the next 24 hours
with areas of dense fog during the overnight hours, both this
morning and Sunday night.

Light rain or drizzle will move into northeastern PA late today as
another wave shoots out of the larger storm complex to our
southwest.

Expect another mild afternoon, with temperatures reaching the
upper 40s and lower 50s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A complex coastal system will impact the region Monday through
Tuesday. Surface low pressure will track from the mid Atlantic
region on Monday to coastal New England by Tuesday afternoon.
Models are in fair agreement in the overall position and movement
of the system but the complicated part of the forecast are the
thermal profiles and resulting precipitation type. The Canadian
continues to be the coldest solution with the NAM/GFS/ECMWF fairly
close. For determining precipitation type used a blend of the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF.

On Monday as cold air overspreads the area from the east the rain
will continue to mix with sleet and snow first from the western
Catskills and Poconos then gradually work west. This cold air will
be in the 925-850 mb layer with a warm layer just above this.
Continued cooling throughout the column due to strong lift and
advections will gradually change the precipitation to a
snow/sleet/rain mix Monday afternoon. Freezing rain is also
possible but the least likely precipitation type in this scenario.
Monday night into Tuesday with the loss of the warm layer aloft
precipitation type will be more boundary layer dependent with
mixed rain/snow. The latest set of model runs brings the upper
level feature and surface low closer to the coast into southern
New Jersey so that warm air may begin working back into the
southeast forecast area Monday night.

The most significant precipitation is expected Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. As the system lifts through coastal New
England on Tuesday the activity will end as a mix of snow/rain at
most locations. Snow accumulations will generally range from 2 to
4 inches with less in the valley areas of northeast Pennsylvania
and the southern tier. Locally higher amounts are possible in the
higher terrain of the western Catskills/Poconos, the tug hill
plateau and higher elevations of Steuben County and the northern
Susquehanna region. Event will likely turn out to be a winter
weather advisory for parts of the area.

Monday afternoon into the evening a strong easterly wind will
impact the eastern forecast area. Winds of 20 to 30 mph with
gusts around 40 mph are likely.

Tuesday night will be fairly quiet due to brief surface ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A low pressure system will swing out of Michigan and into southern
Ontario early Wednesday, spreading rain and snow showers across NY
and PA.

A trough will dig down across the northeastern U.S. behind
the storm. What is most striking about the trough is the lack of
breadth to the cold air. Even with the polar air push,
temperatures will average above normal through the long term
period, despite previous model predictions of a cold snap.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fog will remain dense this morning, with widespread 1/4SM to 3/4SM
visibilities across the majority of our terminals.

Fog will break up by late morning today, but a low stratus deck
will keep ceilings between 400 and 1500 feet.

Fog will return after sunset tonight, but may be short-lived due
to increased mixing ahead of an approaching storm system.


OUTLOOK...

Sunday night, Monday, and into Tuesday...Restrictions likely in
rain or a wintry mix.

Wednesday & Thursday...More restrictions possible in rain or snow
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP



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