Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 300555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
155 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Unsettled and occasionally wet weather will continue through the
weekend as a large and slow moving storm system impacts the
region. Drier conditions are expected early next week as that
system weakens.


1030 PM Update...

New area of rain over Eastern PA and NYC area finally making more
progress into our area. The latest HRRR while slightly fast and
too far north, is handling this area of precipitation the best.
Much like last night however I had to tighten our gradient with
rain approaching so slowly. The 1036 MB high over eastern Quebec
is allowing enough ridging and drier air at low levels to really
impede the northward progression of the rain, much like it has
most of the past 24 hours. Slowly this shield of rain will move
northwest across our CWA but may not reach Binghamton area until
just after midnight. Rainfall amounts are fairly light, or just a
few tenths of an inch. The previous AFD is below.

130 pm update...
Two main weather players will remain dominant this period; the
large cutoff low in the Ohio Valley and the expansive surface high
over southeastern Canada. An east-southeast flow will continue
across central NY/northeastern PA around these features.

Showers are temporarily rotating northwestward and out of the
forecast area this afternoon. As somewhat drier air pushes in from
New England, we will be generally rain-free from late this
afternoon through a good portion of tonight.

Later tonight and Friday, another area of moisture and lift will
move in from the southeast (seen on radar imagery as an area of
steadier rain at this time over southern NJ and along the Delmarva
coast). This will lead to a lowering of clouds and increasing
coverage of light rain. Thus, shower probabilities will increase
into the likely range again for at least northeastern PA and NY`s
southern tier.

Highs Friday (similar to today), should range from the upper 50s-
mid 60s.


415 PM Update...
Cutoff low will remain almost stuck in position through the
weekend. It will be initially parked over the Lower Ohio Valley to
Western Great Lakes, with shortwaves ahead around it from south to
north through our region. Showers will be possible at just about
anytime depending on timing of the individual waves, though with
enhancements during the daytimes due to the energy injected via
diurnal heating.

With the good deal of cloud cover through the weekend, the
temperature range will be fairly narrow. Highs will trend from
mainly lower-mid 60s Saturday, to mid 60s-near 70 Sunday. A few
spots in the northeastern zones could manage upper 40s for lows
Friday night, otherwise lows over the weekend will generally be
lower to mid 50s.


415 PM Update...
Upper low will be filling in and weakening early next week. It
will try to progress through the area but there is uncertainty on
how long that will take. Temperatures will change little, and
there will still be a fair amount of clouds around. However, with
the upper low weakening, shower chances appear slight at best
early next week.


Another round of rain showers are slowly moving into central NY
this morning. For the most part, all TAF sites are VFR. These
conditions will slowly deteriorate as the showers move in and
deep Atlantic moisture pushes back into the region. Flight
conditions are expected to fall to fuel alternate near sunrise as
the more organized showers moves across the region. Deep moisture
will linger through the evening resulting in ceilings falling to
IFR for all TAF sites except KSYR, KRME and KAVP.

Easterly surface winds 5-10 kt will persist with a few gusts to 15
kt through the forecast period.


Saturday night-Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible from
lower ceilings and showers.

Monday-Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Early morning fog possible at KELM.




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