Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
FXUS61 KBGM 270829
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
429 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A low pressure system will move from the Ohio valley to the Great
Lakes through today. This will bring a period of a wintry mix,
changing to rain. The weather pattern will remain generally unsettled
with fluctuating temperatures through the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Messy forecast for the near term as a low over the Ohio Valley
affects the area. Currently, surface low is over northern Indiana
with warm advection precip overspreading area...mostly in the form
of snow at this time as temperatures have dropped to the low to
mid 30s where precip has begun to to evap cooling.
Snow will continue to spread east reaching eastern zones this
morning. Meanwhile, warm advection pattern will lead to a mix with
and change to rain from SW to NE during the morning hours so most
areas will see only a few hours of wintry precip and snow
accumulation limited to a coating up to an inch or two. The
heaviest amounts will be the higher terrain areas east of I-81
where slightly higher amounts will be possible. There is also a
growing concern for there to be some freezing rain during the
transition over eastern zones through the Poconos and
Catskills...especially over the higher terrain areas. This is a
part of the forecast area that tends to be favored for freezing
rain during these transitions and this scenario is indicated by
most models. Not expecting much ice accumulation and it should be
mainly limited to secondary roads, especially over higher terrain.
That said, combined with the snow did opt to issue Winter Weather
Advisory for Wayne, Pike, Sullivan, and Delaware Counties. For the
former two counties in NE PA this is in effect until 16z while for
Sullivan, Delaware Counties advisory runs until 20z. Otherwise
expect most areas to have transitioned to all rain by afternoon
with highs generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s...below average
for late October. Combined with gusty SE winds this will make for
a rather raw day.
Heading into tonight, vigorous upper wave associated with the
system moves through with surface low transferring its energy
from lower lakes to New England. Steadier and heavier precip winds
down west to east through the mid to late evening with showers
lingering on the backside of the low overnight enhanced by the
lake. Some wet snow may mix in again overnight as temps drop into
the 30s however limiting factor will be that most of the moisture
will become confined to below the dendritic zone. &&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low over New England Fri mrng will drift ewrd and allow brief
rdgg into the area ltr Frin into Sat. Some leftover shwrs psbl
early Fri in the NW flow with drying Fri aftn. Fri ngt looks quiet
and dry under Hipres. Wrm fnt aprch for ltr Sat. With the rather
flat wly flow and limited moisture, best chance for pcpn will
remain north of the area Sat nearer the upr jet. Temps will
rebound Sat aftn to abv nrml lvls.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM update...no major chgs to the long term as a flat rdg dvlps
over the area. Fcst area will be on the nrn edge of the rdg bring
various chances for rain but with gnrly abv nrml temps. Prvs disc
330 PM Update...
Frequency of systems will back off a bit in the long term period,
though temperatures will still fluctuate.
Surface ridge Friday evening will quickly collapse in favor of
another small low pressure system which will brush through
Saturday. This northern stream low will track from Lake Superior
Friday night, across Ontario to southern Quebec on Saturday.
Models are in better agreement now on sending its trailing cold
front decidedly through our region Saturday. Upper support and
moisture availability will be better closer to the low itself, and
thus best shower coverage will occur in Central New York. That
being said, with the front passing through the whole area,
everyone including Northeast PA will see at least a chance of
showers. Warm air advection ahead of the cold front, will allow
temperatures to actually go up late Friday night, preventing other
precipitation types besides rain as the system moves in Saturday
morning. Then during the day Saturday, temperatures will reach
mid 50s to near 60 before the cold front passes.
Models are also in better agreement now on secondary wave along
the front sunday being mainly south of the area, so I have
followed the model superblend trend of only low chances for rain
showers; and what little I have for that, mainly south of the
Pattern remains on the progressive side this coming week, though
with modest height rises, and with low tracks further north in
Canada. Temperatures will trend from slightly below climatology
Sunday-Monday, to near normal Midweek. Sometime around Wednesday,
a weak front may pass through but with little moisture and thus
very iffy on rain chances.
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
System will affect the area overnight into Thursday with mixed
precipitation and restrictions.
We expect mostly snow at the onset at KSYR, KRME, KITH, KELM, and
KBGM, with a quick reduction to IFR. This should first set in from
about 06-09z for KELM/KITH/KBGM and 10-12z For KSYR/KRME. After a
2-4 hour period of snow or wintry mix,precipitation should change
to all rain. KBGM will likely have the longest duration of wintry
For much of the day Thursday, we anticipate MVFR restrictions.
Some lower ceilings could bring IFR conditions back in by late
afternoon, best chances for this will be hilltop at KBGM.
E-SE surface winds 5-10 kt for most of tonight, will become quite
strong and gusty towards daybreak, then remain so for much of the
day Thursday out of the SE. It appears that winds will strengthen
at the same time over a deep layer early Thursday, with strong,
gusty winds developing throughout the lowest several thousand
feet AGL. Thus, LLWS will not be included at this time except for
Friday/Saturday/Sunday...On and off MVFR possible in rain
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT today for PAZ040-048-
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for