Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
FXUS61 KBGM 301929
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
329 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
A low over Virginia will slowly move north and east the next
couple days bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight
and Sunday. Some of the rain may be heavy. Drier air will move
into the area late Monday and Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Ltl wv punching into the back of the deep moisture feed over the
ern U.S. This is dvlpg a sfc low over ern OH that will trudge
slowly ewrd ovrngt into Sunday. This system will inturn slowly
dvlp a sely ll jet into the area feeding moisture under a fvrbl
300 mb jet structure. So while rain will tend to run out east this
aftn and eve, it will also tend to redvlp over ern PA and pull
back across the fcst area. Instability will cont to mrgnl but with
the dvlpg jet, isltd tstms certainly psbl.
Pwats increase ovrngt to nearly 2 inches with the moisture feed so
rainfall amts could be heavy. Good news is ll wind structure does
not seem to favor MBE vectors that wld indicate persistant rain.
Still, every drought seems to end with a flood and training cells
could be a prblm. Shrt term flood watches are psbl as the event
dvlps. Attm it looks like the best chance for heavy rain will be
over the Poconos and Catskills and perhaps into the ern Finger
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Loos like the heaviest rain will push east of the fcst area Sunday
mrng lvg the fcst area with plenty of ll moisture but drying abv.
Sndg looks pretty stable so clds may be slow to brk up and a lgt
shwr remains psbl into the aftn...esp in the east.
Upr trof slowly swings thru Mon keeping the area slgtly unstable
and unsettled. Hgts begin to blds as drier air mves in Tue. Highs
Mon with limited sun only in the 70s, but with incrsd sun Tue
temps return to the 80s, xcpt in the wrn Cats where to cooler air
hangs on a bit.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall a great summer week on tap as upper level heights rise
across much of the continental United States with a broad flat
ridge developing over much of the country as the prevailing
westerlies are lifted into southern Canada. The week will become
increasingly more hot and humid as surface high pressure moves
from the vicinity to coastal New England by late week. Next chance
for showers/thunderstorms will be late Friday into Saturday
morning when the next cold front is expected to cross the area.
The best chance for convection looks to be Friday night.
Temperatures will start near seasonal levels then rise to 5 to 10
degrees above normal by late week before the frontal passage.
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid level wave passing through this afternoon will produce
occasional MVFR/below alt required conditions at KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP
in showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are only in the KAVP
TAF where instability is best. Except for KAVP there will be a
break in convection before the next wave impacts the terminals.
Later tonight between 06Z-09Z another round of primarily showers
with embedded thunderstorms will impact the terminals. Widespread
conditions below alt required are expected with occasional IFR
conditions in heavier convection primarily between 09Z-14Z. At
KAVP the second wave will impact the terminal earlier around 03Z
with the heavier activity between 05Z-09Z. Conditions will remain
mvfr until 18z with showers and haze.
Easterly winds around 5 knots.
Sun night - Monday...Restrictions possible with showers and
Monday night - Thursday...VFR.