Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 050544
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. COOLER, DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MLCAPES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 200-500 J/KG, AND WE ARE SEEING A
MARKED DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. PULLED
BACK ON POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES WRN NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO REMOVED ENHANCED WORDING
FROM THE HWO.

3 PM DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROF IS DIPPING TOWARD NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA, MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 1000
J/KG, WITH AMPLE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KNOTS AND DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. NOT SURPRISINGLY, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER THE REGION.

THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. FOR ONE THING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER OUR FA.
ALSO, MOST OF THE FA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LEFT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UL JET STEAK.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION, WE WILL LEAVE
THE ENHANCED WORDING IN PLACE IN THE HWO. HOWEVER IF STRONG
CONVECTION DOES NOT MANIFEST ITSELF BY LATE AFTERNOON, WE WILL
PULL THE WORDING BACK OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL, AS DEPICTED BY 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C. FORECAST MAXES ARE
PROGGED TO REACH 72F TO 77F ACROSS THE FA.

MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR MID ATLANTIC CYCLONE TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NOT IMPACT OUR REGION. WILL
STICK WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE, A MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES, WHILE UPPER RIDGES HOLD
FIRM OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/ROCKIES FRONT RANGE REGIONS, AND ALSO
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN GENERAL, THIS MEANS FREQUENT BOUTS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (ABOUT EVERY 24-48 HOURS), AS UPPER-LEVEL
WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. NO ONE DAY, THOUGH, LOOKS
LIKE A WASHOUT, AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN HIT AND MISS
IN NATURE, AND CENTERED AROUND MAXIMUM HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER
FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES ON THE
OTHER DAYS, AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR AUGUST, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS OVER KRME/KSYR THROUGH DAYBREAK. SINCE
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR FOG AT KELM
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OVERALL A VFR FORECAST WITH SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER
CU TODAY AROUND 5K FT AND JUST CI THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER NE PA THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT INCLUDED
IN TAF DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NW AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KNOTS DURING PEAK HEATING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM


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