Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
FXUS61 KBGM 281916
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
A cold high pressure will build across the region tonight
through Wednesday night with generally dry and cooler conditions
expected. The next system will move in from the southwest later
on Thursday with generally rain showers into the weekend and
occasional snow showers Thursday night and Friday morning.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the ongoing
rain showers expected to end this evening over the Catskills and ne
PA...the potential for patchy fog this evening...and then the onset
of a cooler and drier air mass tonight through tomorrow night.
Surface low and nearly co-located upper trough moving ewd
through the Delmarva peninsula late this afternoon and will
continue to track to the east tonight. Weak forcing and deep
moisture associated with the system continues to produce an area
of rain showers east of I-81 and south of I-88. Rainfall amounts
this evening will range from a tenth to a quarter of an
inch...especially in the Poconos and srn Catskills.
There will be patchy fog lingering this evening behind the rain
and ahead of the cold dry air pushing in from the north.
Visibilities may drop to a half mile or less at times this
Temperatures will drop slowly from north to south as the front
moves in. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s tonight.
Tomorrow the cold air mass associated with an area of high
pressure to the north will push in and only allow temperatures
to rise into the 40s. Cloud cover will be thick in the morning
but clear off later in the day and into the evening with quiet
weather expected. Lows Wed night will fall into the 20s and
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be retreating to the east on Thursday with
increasing clouds through the afternoon. Temperatures will still
be seasonably mild in the 40s. Low pressure will then form over
the Southern Plains states and move through the Ohio Valley to
off the East Coast on Thursday night. We`re expecting
precipitation to break out ahead of the preceding warm front by
late Thursday evening. Models suggest the atmosphere will be
cold enough for precipitation to start off as snow, or a wintry
mix, especially over the higher elevations and most of our
counties in East Central NY and NEPA. Several hours of
precipitation could bring a few inches of wet snow and sleet to
parts of the area. Surge of warm air is likely to change
precipitation over to rain in all areas during the day on
Friday, but colder air sneaking in at the surface late Friday
night is hinting at yet another phase change toward freezing
rain, or sleet at higher elevations as the precipitation winds
Trimmed temperatures in the mountains of the W. Catskills on
Friday, otherwise blended model guidance was accepted.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ECMWF/GFS and assorted ensembles then suggest a break in action
over the weekend with high pressure building across the region.
Next system looks to be a fairly deep low pressure area
approaching next Tuesday which may have a deeper conveyor of
moist south-southeasterly flow that would be able to tap into
more favorable environments for rain. Will have to be vigilant
at watching the trends of this system as time goes on.
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Light rain continues across much of the region with the heaviest
rain developing over ne PA. Vsbys remain VFR or KRME, KSYR, KITH
and KELM. Dense fog is persisting at KBGM...but should begin to
lift and mix out in the next 2-3 hours as the cooler/drier air
moves in from the nw. Heavier rain over KAVP is dropping
vsbys/cigs to IFR and should continue through 21Z when the rain
tappers off and vsbys improve. Tonight, expecting widespread fuel
alternate required ceilings with locally IFR cigs at KBGM and
gradual improvement to MVFR between 09-12Z and eventually to VFR
Light winds become nw around 5 to 10 kt tonight and increase to
around 10 to 20 kt by late Wed morning.
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.
Thursday night through Saturday...Restrictions likely in
showers, especially Thursday night through Friday night.
245 PM EDT Tuesday UPDATE...Minor flood threat diminishing in
the basins as cooler than expected temperatures, and nominal
rainfall have meant a slower than expected melt off the last few
days...especially for the main channel river flows. Smaller
streams and creeks may still be running quite well around the
area, but we have heard of no water issues, or concerns. Will
let the Flood Watch stand for now until we`re sure to get past
the expected crest times later tonight and Wednesday, but the
risk of river flooding looks minimal and will be mainly over on
Attention then turns to later this week, and the first part of
next week where two additional weather systems could bring some
significant precipitation. The first one on Friday may have a
portion fall as snow, or sleet, thus reducing a flood threat,
but early next week looks to be milder and fairly wet. Will
address potential for renewed flood risks, if any, in a couple
PA...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for PAZ038-039.
NY...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for NYZ045-046-