Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 260600
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
200 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
On the back side of a low pressure system, today will feature a
cool northwest wind and scattered showers. Though mostly dry
Saturday through Sunday, passing disturbances could cause a
shower or thunderstorm at times. Our best chance of rain will be
Sunday night, from a wave of low pressure. Scattered showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm can be expected Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 pm update...
For most of the region during the night, particularly from the
I-81 corridor westward, any showers should remain isolated in
nature. Given Thursday`s rainfall and a moist low-level
environment, areas of fog continue to look like a good bet,
especially during the pre-dawn hours. Temperatures should remain
in the 50s overnight.

Previous discussion...
Overnight, expect patchy fog to develop as copious amounts of
low- lvl moisture will be present in the wake of today`s
showers. Winds aloft will weaken as the uppr-lvl low will track
to the east, thus expect mixing over the area to become minimal.
Sfc temps will remain in the low to mid 50s tonight.

Friday the uppr-lvl low will continue to track eastward and NW
flow aloft will develop over the region. Showers may develop
over the region due to the combination of instability due to
diurnal heating and copious amounts of low-lvl moisture. If
showers do develop, these will be diurnal in nature and will
dissipate after 21Z. There is a slight chance showers may linger
after 00Z Temps are forecast to rise into the 60s across the
region Saturday afternoon. Friday night, temps are expected to
fall into the uppr 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Saturday models are now showing a mid level short wave
moving through the eastern Great Lakes as a weak surface low
tracks to our south. For this reason introduced chance pops over
the Finger Lakes region, central southern tier and northeast
Pennsylvania. Will continue with a dry forecast for the western
Mohawk Valley and Otsego County. Highs will range in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

On Saturday night kept slight chance pops across much of central
New York and northeast Pennsylvania as this wave pulls east. Low
will be in the 50s.

Sunday is not looking as wet as yesterday`s model runs. A mid
level short wave in southwest upper level flow will swing
through the region during the afternoon as the surface low
tracks from the Ohio Valley into southern Pennsylvania. Will
continue with likely pops in the central southern tier and
much of northeast Pennsylvania and chance elsewhere. Highs will
once again range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Medium range models are in fair agreement during the extended
period indicating a upper level low will slowly track from the
vicinity of Lake Superior northeast into Quebec by Wednesday
with the trough possibly relaxing by Thursday. Overall a very
unsettled period with a chance for showers each day through
Thursday. Sunday night looks to be the wettest period and will
continue with likely pops as surface low pressure moves from
the Ohio valley northeast into nearby southern Ontario. This is
not expected to be a washout period just very showery with
generally more activity during the day due to diurnal
instabilities.

Temperatures through the period will be near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure is passing through the region, resulting in
restrictions and in some cases showers. At 06Z fuel alternate
required ceilings were already occurring for KBGM-KAVP-KELM-KITH,
and they will make their way to KSYR-KRME as well. Most
terminals will reach into IFR at times, and possibly worse. KELM
will be very tricky because as clouds try to break early this
morning, fog will almost immediately form and perhaps even a
lower ceiling. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the
west to northwest during the day as the low pressure moves
past. Improvement to high end MVFR or even VFR may occur for
KELM-KBGM and especially KAVP during the day, but KITH-KSYR-KRME
will probably persist at fuel alternate required. Then this
evening, ceilings may start lowering again.

Outlook...

Saturday...Lingering ceiling restrictions for some terminals early,
then VFR except brief passing showers possible KELM-KITH-KAVP.

Saturday night through midday Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Late Sunday through Sunday night...Showers/restrictions likely.

Monday through Tuesday...Brief restrictions possible from
scattered showers and perhaps thunder.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP



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