Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 181359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. DRY
WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...PLACEMENT OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS NEEDED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THE SURFACE FRONT IS JUST SLIPPING
THROUGH THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR /INCLUDING SYR ASOS IN THE LAST
HOUR/ AND WILL LOSE DEFINITION WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHALLOWNESS OF FRONT WILL
PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SPRINKLES-LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
OCCURRING...AND EVEN THOSE MAINLY IN THE NEW YORK ZONES. THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA THE POST-
FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ADVECTS...THE HARDER TIME IT WILL HAVE
MAINTAINING ITSELF AS A SOLID OVERCAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
NOW IS HOW MUCH IMPACT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON THE FROST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG/LOW CIGS VCNTY KELM WILL BURN OFF BY
15Z. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR NO CIG. DENSE VALLEY FOG AT KELM MAY AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
THAT A LOW CONFIDENCE IDEA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY
0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB






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