Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 302338
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
638 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight...
Afternoon satellite and obs show a few mid-level cumulus clouds
and moderate temps across the forecast area. The dry air aloft
and northerly flow will keep these conditions around for the rest
of the day and into the evening. Highs this afternoon are still
projected range between the upper 70s to low 80s. Tonight due to
the northerly flow and dry air, Central AL will see mostly clear
skies and temps in the low 50s and upper 40s.

92/Baird

.LONG TERM...
Saturday to Friday...
Over the weekend and into the beginning of next week, the upper
low will slowly drift north from the Ohio River valley to New
England. This feature will continue to pour in dry air and
subsidence aloft and will keep rain chances low. The 850mb low
will slowly follow suit, thus changing the advection regime from
cold to warm and allow temps to slowly increase to the upper 80s.
Rain chances begin to go up slightly on Wednesday through Thursday as
the southerly flow brings an increase in moisture into the
region. Also another upper trough will exit the Rockies and
begins crossing the Central Plains. Thursday night and into Friday
morning a cold front, associated with the trough, will push into
the region. Currently, models diverge on the amount of moisture
return associated with the front. Therefore chances are keep only
in the slight category at this time.

92/Baird


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are expected for all sites this evening and for
overnight hours, as satellite shows clearing skies. Northerly
winds will become light and variable this evening and persist
through the night. Tomorrow morning, winds will approach from the
west to southwest direction, but remain under 10 knots. KTCL may
briefly experience MVFR conditions in the early morning, as air
in the west central AL will cool enough for scattered cloud
development.

92/Baird

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry weather is expected through the next 7 days. No fire weather
concerns are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     49  80  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    51  81  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  53  82  57  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  52  83  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      53  83  57  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      53  84  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  54  86  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        52  85  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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