Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 281725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED REPORTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE WEST. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
OR ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WEST WERE WARMING UP QUICKLY BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING IN SOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AFTER A CLEAR START TO THE MORNING...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.