Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 062010
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

NEXT HONEST RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL COME WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
STATES INTO THE MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
SYSTEM (AND ITS ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER) KEEPS GETTING PUSHED
BACK A LITTLE WITH EACH MODEL RUN...AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE
FIRST RAIN CHANCES DON`T GET HERE UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE EXACTLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND CHANCE POPS -- AT MOST --
REMAINS THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION.

61

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TODAY AND STILL SOME TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS/NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEAL WITH HERE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS STRONG WINDS AS YESTERDAY. HAVE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE
TODAY FROM AROUND 5-7 KFT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD SOME TOWARD ALABAMA TONIGHT AND THUS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     46  81  54  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  80  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  52  81  58  84  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  51  82  57  85  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      51  81  57  84  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      52  80  58  84  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  82  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  82  57  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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