Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 240446
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms ongoing this afternoon as
easterly flow remains in place across the area. An outflow
boundary moved through the SW earlier and this triggered the
showers there. Additional showers/storms have formed along the
outflows from the initial activity. The main energy remains in the
north and expect activity to develop a little bit more there this
afternoon. Already seeing a few bigger storms in northern Georgia
and that activity will slide toward the area.

16

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

By Sunday, the upper energy from what was Jose continues to
deteriorate further over the Atlantic east of New England while
the low over the Northern Gulf retrogrades toward MS/LA, and Maria
moves further northward further constricting the weak ridging to
NE US while the West Coast system progresses eastward to over the
Rockies. On Monday, we see any upper level signature from Jose
gone, absorbed into Maria. The system over the Rockies opens up
pulling the energy over the southern states into it as an open
shortwave. The NE US ridge breaks down as Maria continues
northward. The result for C AL Sunday into Monday will be only low
pops south/west with better chances near the Gulf Coast.

Tuesday into Wednesday, the main upper low associated with the
Rockies system moves northeast toward Manitoba. At the same time,
a piece of energy breaks off from the trough forming a closed low
over the Desert Southwest. Ridging fills in over the Gulf behind
Maria and starts to creep around into E Conus. We should remain
dry for Tuesday into Wednesday across Central Alabama being on the
dry northerly flow side of Maria along with ridging in place
across the Deep South.

At the surface, a cold front makes progress across the central
part of the US to near our door step by late Wednesday. This is a
little faster than yesterday`s run. Each run has trended drier
ahead of the front. So, I will only carry some low pops across
the northern counties on Thursday with drier air filling in
quickly behind the front. A second reinforcing surface front
moves in behind it on Friday escorting a 1028 MB ridge across the
Upper Plains into the Mid West States with tight gradients and a
northerly flow across Alabama to insure cooler weather a nice
taste of fall and absolutely beautiful weather as we end the work
week and head into next weekend.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Mainly a VFR forecast once again. There will be a short period of
MVFR fog around sunrise. Based the locations on rainfall this
afternoon and what happened the past few nights. The high pressure
to our northeast and relatively dry atmosphere overhead will limit
the overall convection again on Sunday. Will not mention at this
time but may be necessary to include in later periods, especially
near TCL. Winds remain almost what they have been each day, east
around 7kts daytime and light at night.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through the
early evening across the area. Rain chances are more confined to
the southwest half of Central Alabama for Sunday and Monday.
Relative humidity values only drop into the upper 40s and 50s.
Transport winds remain rather light which will keep dispersion
values down too. A change in the pattern is expected by Thursday
with the arrival of a cold front along with cooler and drier
weather expected as we head into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  86  65  86  64 /  20  10  10  10   0
Anniston    66  86  65  85  65 /  20  10  10  10   0
Birmingham  69  87  67  86  67 /  20  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  69  89  69  88  68 /  20  20  10  20  10
Calera      69  87  67  86  67 /  20  10  10  10  10
Auburn      67  86  67  86  67 /  20  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  69  89  69  89  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
Troy        67  87  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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