Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 282052
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
352 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Tonight and Sunday.
The band of light rain has been shifting slowly eastward across east
Alabama today. This rain has just about dissipated as it encounters
drier air. Convection has developed over northeast Mississippi ahead
of short wave trof near the Mississippi river. The convection is
primarily tracking northward, so not sure how far eastward it will
make it before it begins to weaken with loss of daytime heating.
Will continue with a slight chance of thunderstorms for areas west of
Tuscaloosa through the early evening. Mid to high level clouds will
continue over central Alabama overnight as the short wave trof moves
eastward, and possibly some light rain, but confidence on placement
and timing not enough to include in forecast. Flow from surface
through mid levels becomes northerly on Sunday and drier mid level
air moves in from the north as the aforementioned short wave trof
shifts into Georgia. Maybe an isolated shower or thunderstorm across
east Alabama on Sunday, but not enough to warrant any area with rain
chances. Low level thickness values increase dramatically on Sunday
in northerly flow and raised highs a few degrees.
Sunday night through Friday.
A large broad upper trough is expected to develop across the
Southeast U.S. as we progress through the remainder of the weekend
and into the beginning of next week as a short wave moving across
Louisiana and into Alabama merges with the upper level troughing
associated with Bonnie along the coast. Weak overall flow will
persist across Central Alabama with only minor shortwave
ripples. As another upper low moves eastward across Canada
through the middle and latter part of next week, we should see
this weaker system get pushed eastward as the associated longwave
trough moves across the Rockies and into the Central U.S. This
second system will yield a few more opportunities for rain being a
larger but not as broad system. This second system will also have
a surface front associated with it approaching Central Alabama by
Friday into next weekend. As for temperatures, look for warm
temperatures Monday through Thursday in the upper 60s for lows and
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with little variation in the
overall pattern until closer to Friday as the front approaches
with more clouds, better rain chances and thus milder readings.
18Z TAF Discussion.
VFR conditions expected thru the period. A weak upper level short
wave trof will approach west Alabama this afternoon. This may
trigger sct showers/tstms over far western Alabama, but most of
the activity will likely stay well west of KTCL, and no pcpn
included in TAFs. The short wave trof will produce mid/high level
clouds tonight and across east Alabama after 12z.
Look for only low to minimal rain chances for the remainder of the
weekend into the first half of this week. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through much of the week. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 62 89 64 89 66 / 10 10 10 20 10
Anniston 63 89 66 88 66 / 10 10 10 20 10
Birmingham 67 91 69 90 69 / 10 10 10 20 10
Tuscaloosa 65 92 68 91 69 / 20 10 10 20 10
Calera 66 90 68 90 69 / 10 10 10 20 10
Auburn 65 88 68 89 69 / 10 10 10 20 10
Montgomery 67 92 69 93 70 / 10 10 10 20 10
Troy 65 92 68 92 69 / 10 10 10 20 10