Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 011153 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
RIDGE OVER THE EAST. A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM WESTERLIES AT HIGHER LATITUDES AND
WILL BECOME A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER.

FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR
AREA WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY THURSDAY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK 500MB LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...BUT THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD...AND
THE GFS IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. WILL SIDE WITH THE
ECMWF ONCE AGAIN AND SHOW DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SIMILAR TEMPS AND POPS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AT
500MB ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST WESTWARD INTO ALABAMA.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST...WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF SITES WITH SOME
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL FOG SITES ALONG WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE GENERAL INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALONG WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. MOISTURE WILL BE OVERALL SHALLOW AND
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     89  69  89  68  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    88  70  90  70  89 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  89  72  90  71  89 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  72  92  73  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      90  73  89  72  89 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      89  72  90  72  89 /  10  10  20  10  30
MONTGOMERY  94  73  93  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  30
TROY        92  72  92  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

87/08


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