Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 290403
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1103 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
For 06Z Aviation.
Showers and a few thunderstorms have popped up on radar this
afternoon. This activity was along some outflow boundaries from
previous storms. The cold front was located near TCL/BHM/ANB with
a good wind shift noted. Much like yesterday, I do not think the
convection will dissipate right at 7 pm so continued with isolated
showers/storms through the night. It does appear that the
boundary will stall across Central Alabama on Wednesday with small
pops, then shift northward overnight Wednesday night and out of
Eyes will then shift west toward the large storm
complex that will be moving through the Mississippi on
Wednesday/Wednesday night and then enter our area Thursday
afternoon, before spreading through on Thursday night. There still
is a severe threat to this system as models continue to show
instability abound with the system. SPC has continued a
slight/marginal chance across the area for that time frame and see
no reason to disagree at this time. With that said though, a new
wrinkle into the forecast will be the coastal development on
Thursday afternoon. How much of this development will keep the
strongest storms to our south and cut us off from the prime
environment. This will be a wait and see but something that would
cause a little bit more of uncertainty to the forecast.
Dry through Sunday afternoon with the next system working next
Monday. This will be another system that will be worth watching
and will likely have a some severe punch with it as well. However
at this time models are differing in position and timing of the
support so will leave out of the hazardous weather outlook but
will need to keep an eye on it.
06Z TAF Discussion.
--MVFR, localized IFR clouds/fog overnight-early morning Wednesday;
return to VFR in the afternoon--
Not many changes made to this aviation forecast package. Localized,
light fog has developed across EET and TCL, and expect that trend to
continue as a low cloud deck moves inland from the Gulf coast. There
should be some localized cloud development as well with time
tonight. Continued a trend toward MVFR clouds/fog area-wide, with an
arch of IFR clouds/fog stretching from TOI-MGM-EET-TCL. All
terminals will return to VFR heading toward/into Wednesday afternoon.
Central Alabama will remain in a warm and moist pattern through the
week, with the highest rain chances Thursday and then again on
Monday. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through
the next 7 days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 55 81 58 80 60 / 10 20 10 40 80
Anniston 58 82 59 82 61 / 20 20 10 30 80
Birmingham 60 83 60 81 60 / 20 20 10 50 80
Tuscaloosa 62 85 61 79 60 / 20 20 10 70 80
Calera 61 84 60 81 60 / 20 20 10 50 80
Auburn 59 83 60 81 61 / 20 20 10 20 70
Montgomery 62 86 59 84 62 / 20 20 10 30 80
Troy 61 86 58 83 60 / 20 10 10 20 80