Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.