Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 031923
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
323 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY
PROVIDING DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT MUCH OF THE TIME
IT SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING
SEASONAL NORMS THIS WEEKEND AND WARMING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. COULD
SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

3 PM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE STRONG JUNE SUN STARTING TO MAKING SOME PROGRESS ON ERODING
THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MA AND RI PER LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS EXPECTING INCREASING SUNSHINE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET
ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW
AND MID 60S. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.


OVERNIGHT...

MARITIME HIGH OVER NEW BRUNSWICK NOSES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL YIELD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. NOT RECORD BREAKING BUT
LOWS IN THE 40S REGION-WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...

THURSDAY AND THU NIGHT...

MOISTURE FROM CLOSED LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY BEGINS TO STREAM
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER CONFLUENT FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE OVER NEW
ENGLAND KEEPS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AT BAY AND JUST OFF THE SOUTH
COAST DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUS DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE S-SW
HORIZON.

HOWEVER TOWARD SUNSET NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO BACK THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SW AND ADVECT
THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT. DESPITE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT VERY
WEAK AND IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THU NGT. IN FACT WOULD NOT/T BE SURPRISED IF
MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINS DRY.

AS FOR TEMPS...CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA RESULTS IN MARITIME HIGH
AND ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER MORE
SUNSHINE TOMORROW THAN TODAY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI. THUS STRONG/HIGH
JUNE SUN ANGLE WILL MODIFY AIRMASS WITH TEMPS NOT AS COOL AS TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUN THEN THREAT OF SHOWERS RETURNS MON AND TUE
* TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK

EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT FOR
A COMPROMISE AMONGST THE ECMWF/GFS TO BE USED.  BEYOND
SATURDAY...THE ECWMF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS SO WILL OPT TO USE MAINLY AN ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF
HAVING THE SUPPORT OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.  AND FINALLY SOME MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BOTH DAYS.

SUNDAY...SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM REACHING TO
POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

3 PM UPDATE...

THRU 00Z...

MVFR-VFR CLOUDS WILL IMPACT EASTERN MA AND RI TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING CLOUDS ERODING NICELY PAST HOUR
OR SO. HOWEVER DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...

MVFR-VFR CLOUDS SHIFT INTO NORTHERN CT/WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH
PATCHY FOG. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...

ANY MVFR MORNING CIGS AND VSBYS BURN OFF TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD
SUNSET. LIGHT SE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT...

VFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATE AND ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. LOW
RISK OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION AS WELL. MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHEN MVFR-VFR CIGS WILL DEPART.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER ON TIMING OF MARGINAL
MVFR-VFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY
VFR. VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLD -SHRA
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

THROUGH THURSDAY...

MARITIME HIGH PRES NOSES INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS RESULTS
IN LIGHT WINDS/TRANQUIL SEAS/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

THU NIGHT...

MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ADVANCES NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLC WATERS AND MAY ENTER THE SOUTHERN RI AND MA WATERS THU
NIGHT. THIS MAY REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE VERY OUTER WATERS SATURDAY BUT THEY
SUBSIDE QUICKLY.

MONDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG



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