Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 220615 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
115 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Low level moisture and lingering nearby convection
over the Mexican Plateau will keep periodic MVFR cigs across the
TAF sites overnight. Meanwhile, lingering cirrus will prevail at
the upper levels. Onshore flow will allow for the some streamer
showers of of of the Gulf this morning, with some afternoon
convection again possible today.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Thunderstorm activity starting to wane in the region
this evening, but a threatening outflow boundary is drifting
toward KMFE from the north. EBG MTR notes winds from 050, with
brief wind speed of 15g25kts. Have added a tempo group for the
possible wind shift for KMFE. Boundary should be dissipating by
midevening, with modest southeast flow continuing through the
night for all locations. Seabreeze activity will be a possibility
tomorrow late morning, but current timing too uncertain for TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed along the coastal counties this
afternoon, in part due to the coastal seabreeze, as well as a weak
shortwave trough moving overhead today. 12Z sounding this morning
from BRO measured 2.20" of Precipitable Water and the non-
operational, preliminary GOES-16 satellite imagery was in decent
agreement this afternoon with 2.00-2.20" across the area.
Therefore, any showers and storms that develop will have the
potential to produce locally heavy downpours. Tonight the
shortwave will exit the area and shower activity should decrease
in intensity tonight.

Friday, flow aloft will be weak with mean broad ridging affecting
South Texas, however isolated showers and storms will be possible
along the seabreeze in the morning and afternoon. NAM MOS guidance
is showing much higher PoPs than the ECMWF and GFS, but think the
lack of upper level support would inhibit more scattered activity as
a broad low over the central Gulf of Mexico will be to our east.
Temperatures will likely be above normal again with highs in the
upper 90s to near 100F from McAllen through the Upper Valley.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): South Texas will be under
part of the 500mb ridge across the northeast United States
extending into east TX Saturday with a 500mb trough across the
western U.S. and a 500mb low across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Low to mid level moisture will be high across northern Mexico into
west TX through the weekend into early next week. Will likely see
isolated seabreeze convection across the coastal sections of the
CWA Saturday and Sunday. Low to mid level moisture is expected to
increase across southwest TX Monday and will mention a slight
chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms early next
week...mainly across the coastal sections of the CWA. The 500mb
trough across the western U.S. will move little through the middle
of next week. A weak cold front across the central U.S. Monday
will make its way into the TX panhandle Tuesday and into north TX
Wednesday. Moisture will pool along and ahead of the front and
this will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
portions of south TX Tuesday through the rest of the forecast

MARINE (Now through Friday night): Surface high pressure over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to moderate
southeast flow through the short term with seas at 2 to 4 feet.
Periods of isolated showers and storms will be possible,
especially in the overnight hours.

Saturday through Tuesday...Light to moderate southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Saturday with surface high
pressure across the eastern United States and surface low pressure
across Colorado. The pressure gradient will remain weak across
the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday before increasing on Monday as
low pressure develops across west Texas. Light to moderate
southeast winds across the lower Texas coast Sunday will increase
to moderate on Monday and continue through Tuesday.




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