Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 251939
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
239 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): Satellite imagery shows
the seabreeze gradually shifting inland this afternoon, but shower
activity is very limited. Morning sounding showed dry atmosphere
aloft continuing to cap things off above about 5000 feet, so
vertical development remains limited on the seabreeze. Water vapor
imagery shows larger plume of moisture offshore, poised to move
inland tomorrow. Model data indicates this, with increasing
moisture, especially later in the afternoon, as the H5 ridge
shifts to the east, allowing broad southeast flow to increase.
Moisture will not be significant enough for widespread showers, so
rain will remain isolated to widely scattered tomorrow.
.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday): Keeping an eye on AL99
in the Atlantic, which could end up in the Northeast Gulf late in
the period. For now, H5 ridging and surface high pressure will
retreat toward the mid Atlantic States by Saturday, leaving a
weak mid level low over the Northwest Gulf and a weak pressure
gradient at the surface. The result will be unsettled weather
conditions for the weekend and early next week. The mid level low
will drift toward the CWA on Sunday and is forecast to be roughly
over the CWA Sunday night into Monday. Rain chances will increase
to 50 or 60 percent Monday Morning through Tuesday with the mid
level low in the area.The feature will continue inland over Mexico
early in the week with local rain chances tapering off by mid
week. Forecast rain amounts currently range up to around an inch
for the period, though significant variation may be possible. Any
storms may not move much,resulting in heavier accumulation. Partly
cloudy skies will trend toward mostly cloudy late in the weekend
and early in the week, and temperatures will be closer to normal
Now through Friday night: Onshore flow remains light through the
next 36 hours as broad high pressure moves across the eastern US.
Gradient remains weak, so winds will generally run near 10 knots
through tomorrow night, which will keep seas at or below 2 feet.
Some isolated streamer shower activity will move through the coastal
waters tonight and again tomorrow night.
Saturday through Tuesday...The surface pressure gradient will
remain weak in the long term, resulting in generally light winds
and low seas. An upper disturbance will move into the area and
will result in higher convective activity, slight chance to
chance, through the forecast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 90 78 91 / 10 20 20 20
BROWNSVILLE 77 94 78 93 / 10 20 10 30
HARLINGEN 75 95 77 95 / 10 20 10 20
MCALLEN 77 98 77 97 / 10 20 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 100 77 98 / 10 10 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 82 88 / 10 20 20 20
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