Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 311204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
604 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO INCREASE TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
INVERSION AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INCREASE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OF MEXICO WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
BECOME STRONG WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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