Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 042330 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FINE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH VFR IN PLACE. BREEZY WINDS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH CALMER WINDS AT NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE OF NO
CONCERN.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY TOMORROW. THIS WOULD SUPPRESS RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
FLOURISH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND DRY AIR IS
HEATED MORE EFFICIENTLY THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 100S FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE TROUGH ENTERS THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DECREASE
THROUGH THE LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO 1.6
TO 1.4 IN AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 40 ALONG THE COAST TO
20 PERCENT OUT WEST AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THIS WARM CORE
HIGH. THE MODELS CONTINUES TO TREND FOR A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES VERY LOW AND MAINLY FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS TROUGH OVER THE CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP S TEXAS WITH SE WINDS INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 108 TO
110 WITH ISOLATED AREAS CLOSE TO 112 ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH MORE DRY AIR IN THE AREA EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
LOWER REDUCING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS LOWER A FEW DEGREES INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE
GULF WATERS...WITH LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THIS EVENING. SEAS HAVE REMAINED IN
THE 2 TO 3 FEET RANGE TODAY AND EXPECT A SMALL SURGE TONIGHT AS SEAS
IN THE GULF COULD RISE TO AROUND 3.5 FEET. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A
MODERATE CHOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL BE NEARLY
SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG
THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCEC POSSIBLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND MORE MODERATE SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET AT THE MOST
OVER THE GULF. OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE SE WINDS
INCREASE CLOSER TO SCEC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE GULF.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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