Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 300041 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
741 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE HAS CLEARED THROUGH THE AREA
WITH NO MAJOR CLOUD COVER AND NO CONV HAS FIRED DUE TO THE DRY AND
STABLE NATURE OF THE ATMS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN THE
GENERALLY HOT...DRY AND CLD FREE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. A MODERATE PGF WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT S-SE WINDS
AFTER SUNRISE WITH ONLY SOME FAIR WX CU LIKELY. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND
FOG TO FORM. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY SERIOUS REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
OR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT...HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A SCATTERED...RATHER FLAT FIELD OF CUMULI
NOTED.  MODIFICATIONS OF THE MORNING KBRO SOUNDING...AS WELL AS
SHORT-RANGE FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  AND WITH PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA THANKS TO RIDGING ALOFT...I DON`T
SEE A LOT OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

EVEN THOUGH THE OLD METEOROLOGICAL SAYING REMAINS TRUE THIS
AFTERNOON (BIG BUBBLE...NO TROUBLE)...SOME KINKS IN THE ARMOR OF THE
RIDGING ALOFT ARE NOTED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE (SOMEWHAT
FLATTENED) RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.  WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE
ALONE WILL LIKELY HAVE VERY LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...IT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SERVE TO ERODE THE RIDGING A BIT ACROSS OUR AREA AS
IT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SO IN THE MEANTIME...WE`LL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.  GIVEN FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS (AROUND 105 DEGREES) DURING MID-AFTERNOON.  WIND SPEEDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIHUAHUA AND COAHUILA AIDS IN
STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  ONSHORE WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER.  /BUTTS/

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY STILL LOOK TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE...AT LEAST AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWER HEIGHTS...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING. HOWEVER...BY
THURSDAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PLACING THE
RGV AND ALL OF COASTAL TEXAS IN A WEAK TROUGH OR WEAKNESS BETWEEN
THE DESERT SW RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA HIGH IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THAT COULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. AS
MENTIONED...HOT ON THU AND FRIDAY...AND MAYBE A TAD LESS HOT SAT
THROUGH MON. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ONSHORE WINDS MAY
INCREASE JUST A BIT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN NORTHERN MEXICO STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME...WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
(OCCASIONALLY LOWER) ARE EXPECTED...WITH COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 FEET WITH A 4-5 SECOND PERIOD. /BUTTS/

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
ON THE LAGUNA MADRE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER IN THE GULF WATERS...BUT
EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA SEEMS LIKLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW ANY CRITERIA THRESHOLDS.
SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET THURSDAY BECOMING ONE TO TWO FEET FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  95  81  93 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  96  80  94 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            76 100  79  97 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              78 102  79 100 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 102  78 102 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  92  81  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ/65




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