Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 250228
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1028 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end this evening
as upper low pressure slowly pulls away to the north and east. A
weak cold front will push into the region by Wednesday afternoon
with a renewed threat of showers and storms, especially across
northern counties.  Behind this system, building warmth and humidity
will bring the first summerlike conditions to the region for the
remainder of the work week and into the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020 PM EDT Tuesday...minor update to confine precip across
orange...rutland...and windsor counties through midnight tonight.
also...have increased overnight low temperatures by 2 to 4 degrees
in most locations based on higher surface dewpoints and some mid
level clouds. rainfall from earlier showers and embedded
convection mainly ranged in a narrow axis from 1v4 to mpv to rut
between 0.10 and 0.40 with some isolated higher amounts. the
precipitation was mainly confined to central and eastern vt
zones...with no precip falling west of the champlain valley. light
mainly terrain driven winds are anticipated overnight...with some
areas of fog likely across central and eastern vt
valleys...especially where rain occurred earlier.

Upper level low pressure continues to pivot while lifting slowly
northeast along the New England coast this afternoon. Backside
deformation combined with spoke of deeper moisture and boundary
layer convergence/weak instability will promote scattered
showers/isolated storms through early evening across our central
and eastern VT counties, with dry weather expected across northern
NY. By later this evening/tonight any lingering clouds east will
generally dissipate as the low pressure pulls further east,
leaving a mainly clear night across the area from roughly midnight
onward. Given wet ground from today`s rainfall, favorable
hydrolapse profiles and light boundary layer winds patchy mist/fog
will also be likely across our southern and southeastern VT
counties. Low temperatures a blend of available MOS and bias-
corrected data offering values generally in the 40s to lower 50s.

On Wednesday short range models remain consistent in showing a weak
surface trough pushing into the region by the afternoon hours. Some
rather distinct differences among latest MET/MAV MOS output
regarding rain chances with this feature.  However as steep low
level lapse rates interact with a slight increase in boundary layer
moisture and nominal instability we should see scattered showers and
a few storms develop across southern QE/ON and progress into our
northern and central counties by mid to late afternoon.  No severe
weather is expected, but enough 0-6 km shear combined with the
deeply mixed boundary layer and passage of a northern stream H5
vorticity center to allow for a few storms to produce brief gusty
winds and perhaps some small hail.  Highest confidence on this
occurring would be from the Adirondacks north and east across the
northern half of VT in the 3-9 pm time frame.  Latest blended 925 mb
thermal progs support seasonally warm temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, perhaps a few mid-80s across the Champlain
Valley into southern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday evening will see some
lingering showers as an upper level shortwave continues to affect
the North Country. Showers will exit south and east as the
shortwave shifts into the Gulf of Maine. Drying trend for the rest
of Wednesday night with mild temperaturesin the mid 40s to mid
50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region. On Thursday, 925mb
temperatures increase to the upper teens to near 20C. Southerly
flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will accompany
maximum temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will be interupted by a
weakening upper level shortwave moving from west to east Thursday
night. This will result in increasing clouds with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. The mid-upper level pattern transitions
to keep the North Country in the periphery of ridging which looks
to allow a chance of convective showers and thunderstorms every
day through the weekend.

There is the potential for a cold front to move through the region
over the weekend, which could lead to a break in precip and slightly
cooler temperatures. Overall, much uncertainty exists in the long
term due to more zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to be
above normal throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. clearing
skies and light winds across central/eastern and southern vt that
witnessed rain showers this afternoon have the best chance for
mvfr/ifr and possibly lifr in radiational fog between 07-13z wed
which for taf sites means kmpv and to lesser extent krut as
climatologial se wind at 5-7 kts may prevent lifr/ifr. After 12Z
Wednesday, VFR continues with mainly clear skies through 18z.
There will be an increasing threat of showers and a few storms
after 18Z.

Outlook 00Z Thursday through Sunday...

00Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure.

12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms, especially on

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/SLW



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