Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 310748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT
07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CONSISTENT MESOSCALE MODEL
RUNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
IMPACT NRN NY ACROSS NRN VT THRU MID-MORNING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO
1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS
DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






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