Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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273
FXUS61 KBTV 302349
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
749 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today with sunny to partly
sunny skies and seasonable early spring temperatures. Low pressure
will approach and pass south of the area on Friday into Saturday
with a widespread wet accumulating snow expected. The snow may mix
with or change to rain in lower elevations on Friday. Dry weather
returns by Sunday into Monday before additional rains and snows
arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 703 PM EDT Thursday...Forecast remains on track. After a
pleasant and sunny day (high of 42F at BTV), mid-upr level
clouds are gradually increasing from SW-NE this evening. These
clouds will mitigate radiative cooling despite light winds.
Expect lows overnight mainly in the 20s across the region with
areas near Lake Champlain in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Light snow will move into our far south and southwestern
counties late with minor accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches
possible. However, the bulk of the precipitation for the area
should hold off until during the daylight hrs Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 PM EDT Thursday...A low pressure system will bring
heavy wet snow to the North Country on Friday. The major
changes between the latest forecast and the previous is that the
precip will be slower to move in and thus the warm air
advection should bring in considerable warmer temperatures to
the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. The net result is that
there will be more mix of rain/snow in those valleys with the
potential for some sleet mixing in across western Rutland and
the western slopes of the southern Greens.

Expect the precip to come in two waves with the first being
light snow that lifts from southern Vermont towards central
Vermont before breaking down as the dynamics fall apart. The
system becomes reinvigorated and brings heavier precip in
during the afternoon and evening hours and thats when the
significant heavy wet snow will be expected. The range of
guidance is still fairly widespread given the difficulty of how
far the warm nose will push up into Vermont and northern New
York.

I dont anticipate much in the way of true impacts due to weather
until we get into the Friday night time period as thats when the
low begins to deepen and we get into the rich moist environment.
The bulk of the snow should fall in that 8pm to 8am time period
so given the wet nature of the snow, we expect there will be
issues with snow loading on trees and power lines which will
cause isolated to scattered power outages. Please see our
winter weather page at www.weather.gov/btv/winter for specific
accumulation forecasts and probabilities. With the warm air
advection bringing warmer temps into the valleys faster
anticipate highs on Friday ranging through the 30s to the low
40s being possible. Lows overnight will fall into the upper 20s
to lower 30s.

Saturday as the upper level low deepens off the coastline and
the surface low does as well the energy will be pulled out of
the North Country and we should see the snow begin to taper off.
The way the surface low deepens however means that we will get
should see some northwest flow with moderate RH which will lead
to some lingering mountain snow showers during the day on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 251 PM EDT Thursday...A very active pattern continues
across most of the conus with another system expected to impact
our forecast area on Tuesday into Weds. The combination of
lingering backside moisture in favorable upslope pattern will
support chc pops on Sunday morning...especially northern/central
Greens. Temps with expected fresh snow pack...with be 3 to 5
degrees below normal...with increasing amounts of sunshine in
the afternoon. Thinking highs mainly upper 20s to lower 40s
depending upon elevation. Weak surface ridge builds into our cwa
on Sunday Night into Monday with clear skies and cool temps
anticipated. Have cut superblend by several degrees based on
clear skies...some snow pack...and light winds. Latest trends
have next system impacting our region by early Tuesday with a
mix of rain/snow...as guidance conts to be cooler with high pres
to our north. Have cut temps on Tuesday...but if precip is
delayed due to deep dry layer...than highs could range from the
mid 30s to mid 40s based on 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles
between -2c and +3c. Latest guidance shows strong evaporational
cooling again...with profiles becoming isothermal near 0c as the
heavier precip arrives. Bottom line have increased pops to high
chc/low likely southern cwa...with a mix of rain/snow mention in
the weather grids. Could see another highly elevation depend
snow storm with significant accumulation possible above 2000
feet. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR continues through 06z at all TAF
sites. A band of light snow will moves across the North Country
southwest to northeast between 07z-12z bringing cigs and vsbys
to MVFR...further deteriorating mid to late morning to MVFR/IFR
as wintry mix of mostly rain-snow and some sleet affects the
area. Generally expect precip to change to rain during the
midday, before colder air in the boundary layer begins a mix of
rain and snow as diurnal heating wanes and nocturnal cooling
increases.

North to Northwest winds this evening will become light before
shifting out of the south to southeast during the mid morning
hours. KMSS will remain out of the NE with gusts to 25kts
developing in the late morning.

Temperatures warm into the mid 30s to low 40s Friday, allowing
for melting on paved surfaces with rain in the afternoon before
changing to snow in the late afternoon/evening. Through 00Z
Saturday expect snow/sleet accumulations of a dusting to about a
quarter in at KMSS/KPBG/KBTV. Generally 1-2 inches possible
through 00Z Saturday at KRUT/KSLK/KMPV.

Outlook 00Z Saturday through Tuesday...

00Z Saturday - 12Z Saturday...MVFR to LIFR in snow and wintry
mix.
12Z Saturday - 12Z Sunday...IFR improving to MVFR/VFR as snow
tapers off.
12Z Sunday - 00Z Tuesday...VFR as lingering terrain showers
diminish.
00Z Tuesday onward...VFR/MVFR in rain/snow showers.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     for VTZ003-004-006-011-016>018.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
     VTZ007-008-010-012-019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     for VTZ001-002-005-009.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ029>031-035.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
     NYZ034.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ028.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...KGM



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