Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290841
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS STRETCH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER.
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS ARE SUBZERO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO STAY
ABOVE ZERO WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER SUMMITS AS AN
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
INITIAL SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND
LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHADOWING ACROSS THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z
FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR
EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING
LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES. IN
ADDITION...SYSTEM WILL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES THRU 00Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP.
EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING
OF THE LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL
BTV4KM SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING
TEMPS...COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FLASH FREEZE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F
AND -40F ACROSS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EST THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY MONDAY AND TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) BY 18Z
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS MODEL. THE
CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL IS SLOWER THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND TAKES
A LOW JUST NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THE
CANADIAN GLOBAL LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER AND WAS NOT USED. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COMPROMISE GFS SOLUTION FOR MONDAY. THE GFS
HINTS THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY SNOW ON MONDAY WOULD
JUST BARELY MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON MONDAY...SO
HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES ON MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
REMAINING DRY. IF ECMWF MODEL IS RIGHT...THAN THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 18Z THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY. BETWEEN 00Z-06Z FRIDAY EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. EXPECTING MAINLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE
20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21Z-24Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY-12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN
SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF


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