Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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200
FXUS61 KBTV 070555
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1251 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT A SMALL THREAT OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. OTHERWISE SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WITH SOME
WIND...TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD FALL
LITTLE FROM CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH
MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY
ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR
OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF.
GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM
ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR
CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH
AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO
LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP
FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE
NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE
FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER THE OVERALL
THREAT IS LOW SO I ONLY CARRIED VCSH FOR KMSS AND KSLK WITH REST
OF THE TERMINALS REMAINING DRY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AND WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
FRONT DROPS THOUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL



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