Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 291533
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1133 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
RETURN LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AND THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE HIGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING A WARMER RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH EVEN SEE A FEW READINGS IN
THE UPPER 70S IN AREAS OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT A FEW UPPER 60S
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE AIR WILL REMAIN A BIT
COOLER.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTH INTO
THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. BEST FORCING AND
LIFT WILL STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...SO HAVE OPTED TO PULL
OUT ANY CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM +10/+11C THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...TO +17/+18C ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH +13C OR SO BEING SEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOWS TONIGHT SOME 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY MORNING AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND DRY LOW LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP THE WARM FRONT DRY...WITH A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT GREATER
MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT THE WARM SECTOR WILL
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SBCAPE OF AROUND 1500J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN NY INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY KEEP SOME
CINH IN THE PROFILE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE BUILDING
INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
TRIGGER WILL BE SUBTLE TERRAIN INDUCED CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND HAVE MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +17C AND THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY ALONG
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE WARM SECTOR IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE AND WARM
ADVECTIVE CLOUDS SLOWER TO DEPART.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL RIPPLE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES TO THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND SPREAD HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. A BELT
OF 30-35 KNOT FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
AND MARK THE TIME AND SPACE OF BEST RAIN CHANCES. PWAT VALUES
APPROACH 2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AS A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS
CAPTURED AND DRAWN NORTHWARD BY THE EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH. GIVEN
THE SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND QUALITY MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER...WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE POPS UP FOR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NY AS
THE RESPONSIBLE FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFT EAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAVE THE AFTERNOON MAINLY RAIN FREE FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST
TO ROCHESTER...AIDED BY A DEVELOPING STABLE LAKE SHADOW OFF LAKE
ERIE. THIS SAME AREA MAY ALSO SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM WITH
LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID HOWEVER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DPVA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE DEEPEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY THIS TIME...BUT A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THESE MAY INITIATE ON
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD
DRY OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
MID LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN A GENERAL SENSE A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A
CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH
INFLUENCE ON THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK IN OUR REGION.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON LABOR DAY MONDAY WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. THE ONLY POTENTIAL TRIGGER WOULD BE A WEAK
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE SHOWN IN SEVERAL MODEL RUNS PUSHING
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
IN THE AREA. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.

A MORE NOTABLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON TIMING. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...A
WEAK BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
THINNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...KEEPING
WAVES TO LESS THAN ONE FOOT ON BOTH LAKES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS ON THE LAKES SATURDAY WITH WAVES
LESS THAN 2 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM/WOOD
MARINE...JM






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