397
FXUS61 KBUF 150552
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
152 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With the exception of some fog early this morning...weak high
pressure will provide us with fair dry and uneventful weather will
through tonight...along with somewhat lower humidity levels than the
past few days. It will then turn more humid and unsettled again
Wednesday and Thursday...when scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Weak surface-based ridging building across our region has resulted
in skies clearing across our area since yesterday evening...with the
combination of this...light winds...and lingering higher dewpoints
allowing for the formation of some patchy fog across the area. Based
on recent surface obs and satellite imagery...have upped the amount
of fog across the area through early this morning to include greater
portions of the Niagara Frontier and Finger Lakes.

Whatever fog that does form early this morning will mix out fairly
quickly after sunrise...with a dry and uneventful day otherwise
expected as the axis of the surface ridge crests across our area.
While it will remain rather warm with highs generally in the mid to
upper 80s...somewhat lower dewpoints (mostly in the lower to mid
60s) should help to keep apparent temperatures from reaching above
the lower 90s...thereby precluding the need for any heat advisories.

Tonight the axis of the surface ridge will slowly drift off to our
east...while a shortwave trough slowly makes its way northeastward
across the Ohio Valley. While this latter feature may help to spread
some mid-level clouds into southwestern portions of the area
overnight...any associated pcpn will is expected to remain southwest
of our region until the day Wednesday...with dry weather continuing
to prevail. Otherwise it will be a rather warm night...with lows
ranging from the 60s across the interior of the Southern Tier and
North Country to around 70 across the lake plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough lifting northeast out of northern Illinois and
Indiana into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday,
will support weak surface wave to travel north out of the Ohio
Valley and across New York State and into New England Wednesday and
into Thursday. This being said, associated ascent and moisture will
advect into the forecast area resulting in a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. The best chance for activity will lie from the
western Southern Tier towards the Finger Lakes during peak diurnal
heating, so mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Ahead
of the thunderstorm potential, a hot and humid airmass will remain
overhead of the region Wednesday supporting heat indices in the mid
90s and approaching 100 at times, especially across the lake plains,
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. While increasing cloud cover
may suppress heating, there continues to be medium confidence that
upper 90s heat indices will be reached.


The aforementioned shortwave trough will merge with the longwave
trough passing across the northern Plains and into the Upper Great
Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Then Thursday, the
longwave trough will trudge east across the central Great Lakes
towards the eastern Great Lakes. As a result, a surface cold front
will approach the region from the northwest Wednesday night and
Thursday, before crossing the region Thursday night. Timing of these
features continue to have some discrepancies. However with the
discrepancies, showers and thunderstorms will be possible due to the
warm muggy airmass already in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Longwave troughing will be in the midst of crossing the eastern
Great Lakes and Northeast Friday before zonal flow briefly graces
the region Saturday. Troughing will then return to the Great Lakes
and New England Sunday and Monday.

A cold front associated with the first longwave trough will cross
the area Friday, supporting continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Additionally, the passage of the front will provide
some relief to the heat and humidity.

Aforementioned zonal flow will support surface high pressure to
settle in across the Great Lakes for the start of the weekend. The
surface high will then exit east towards the Atlantic coast Sunday
as troughing moves back into the Great Lakes supporting the next
surface low to track from the central Great Lakes and across New
England through Monday. As a result, the potential for showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through early this morning...expect areas of fog/very low stratus
(with conditions ranging from LIFR to MVFR) to continue to be an
issue owing to low level moisture lingering in the presence of clear
skies and light winds. Expect the fog to be most common across the
Southern Tier...as well as along/near the Niagara River from roughly
Grand Island into the vicinity of KIAG...with some lower stratus
also affecting KBUF at points.

After sunrise any fog and low stratus should mix out fairly quickly
with renewed daytime heating...leaving behind VFR conditions that
will prevail through the rest of today and tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday...Localized restrictions likely in
scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue across the lower Great Lakes through
today with light/variable winds.

A modest southerly flow will then develop following the passage of a
warm front later tonight and Wednesday, but wind speeds should
remain below 10 knots. This being said a passing disturbance will
bring the risk of a few showers and thunderstorms (with locally
higher winds and waves) as we push through the day Wednesday.

The next chance for somewhat stronger winds will be Thursday
following a passing cold front...with southwesterly winds picking up
to 10-15 knots and waves building into the 2-3 foot range at times.
There will also be a greater potential for thunderstorms and
associated locally higher winds and waves during this time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ008-013-014-021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/TMA