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000
FXUS61 KBUF 301435
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
935 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SINGLE DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED FOR
ALL SITES BY THIS EVENING. THE FRIGID AIR WILL SUPPORT BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SW NYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MOISTURE FROM GEORGIAN BAY...COMBINED WITH
OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY STATE BAND OF SNOW
THROUGH THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR WILL
BRING SNOW COVERED ROADS AND AS SUCH WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY THROUGH
2 PM. THIS SNOWBAND SHOULD WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE DEPLETING.

LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE RUNNING IN THE 20S
WITH READINGS QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS AND A STEADY DIP IN TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SLUSH ON
AREA ROADS TO FREEZE UP IF UNTREATED. ONLY EXPECTING UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE MOST PERSISTENT AREAS OF SNOW
TODAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE A BAND OF
SNOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BRING OVERALL TOTALS TO AROUND A HALF FOOT OF SNOW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WE TURN EVEN COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST CIRCULATES ARCTIC AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE OTHERWISE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO
FALL OVERNIGHT TOWARDS ZERO FOR WESTERN NEW YORK DOWN INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. COMBINING THESE
TEMPS WITH A LIGHT/MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WE
HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WARMER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW 20S BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIRMASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH MAY ALSO PICK UP SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE LIMITED OPEN WATER ON LAKE ERIE...AND ALSO FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS MAY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. A FRESH
BATCH OF COLDER AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS IN MOST
AREAS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MEANWHILE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
ENHANCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC BOUNDARY WITH A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS BUT FAST TRACKING SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED THIS LOW...BUT HAS STRUGGLED
MIGHTILY WITH ITS TRACK. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTH FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FUTURE MODEL SHIFTS. SINCE THIS IS PRIMARILY A QUESTION OF TRACK...A
CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST FORECAST...WITH A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND OF THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM/NAM FAVORED. THIS MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WOULD BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NIL BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE A NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS NORTHWARD OR A SOUTHWARD SHIFT KEEP
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OUT OF THE CWA.

REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL PULL ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS
ON MONDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS STRONGER
SOLUTION VERIFIES IT WOULD BRIEFLY BRING A PUSH OF MILDER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE BY THURSDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY THURSDAY
AS FLOW APPEARS TO ALIGN BETTER AT THAT TIME THAN EARLIER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED MVFR/IFR VIS SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
DAY BUT LINGERING LONGEST AROUND KROC. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS IN PLAY AS WELL WITH CIGS AVERAGING MVFR ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AREAS OF MVFR IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE LATE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ019-020-085.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH