Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 012000
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LOWER THE
HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY
JULY NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND NORTH
COUNTRY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA.

A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
COLD FRONT WILL CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING. SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO
THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND
THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH
STRATUS CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING DRY AIR AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
DRY WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COURTESY OF A ZONE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL BE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE
PERIOD AS THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING COOL AIR ALOFT FROM A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THAT
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WELL
TO OUR NORTH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
MAY BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT
ON ANY EARLY FIREWORK VIEWING.

WHILE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SO WHILE PICNICS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE THRUWAY MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS BY THE TIME WE REACH
FIREWORK VIEWING SATURDAY EVENING.

THE ONE AREA WHERE FIREWORK VIEWING MAY BE AFFECTED SATURDAY EVENING
WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS AREA WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. AS SUCH THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. SIMILARLY...NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE SCENE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM END TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASING
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 ON SUNDAY TO THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY. LIKEWISE LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR AVERAGE...FROM THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN THE RETURN OF
A MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PRODUCING A MORE
MUGGY FEEL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. A LARGE
TROUGH CROSSING CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE LATEST ECMWF RUN HAS SLOWED UP ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT...A TREND THAT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING IN FUTURE
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND NORTH
COUNTRY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA.

A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
COLD FRONT WILL CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRESH SOUTHWEST WIND IS BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE
WATERS. SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE PAST COUPLE
WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS PART OF ONE
OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS. THE CURRENT
LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX MONTHS...INCLUDING
THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...RSH



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