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000
FXUS61 KBUF 121130
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
730 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...REACHING NEW
JERSEY BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS THAT WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
HAS BEEN PRODUCING A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN IOWA...EASTWARD TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN
AS IT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE LATER IN THE MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...A STRONG SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECEDING THE LOW CENTER FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE
LOW-MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND BOTH OF THESE OVERLAID BY A
PRONOUNCED COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT ZONE OF
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
IN/MI/OH SHOWS THIS DIFFLUENT UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH STRONG COOLING
ALOFT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC AND
LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO COMING INTO PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS
WILL ADD UP TO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL AREAWIDE...WITH THE WORST
OF THE SNOW GENERALLY COMING BETWEEN THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY TO  RANGE FROM 8-13 INCHES FOR
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH THE LOWER ACCUMS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE NY/PA
LINE...AND THE HIGHEST OVERALL AMOUNTS COMING IN AREAS OF FAVORED
OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK-PENNSYLVANIA BORDER...A WINTRY MIX TO START THE DAY WILL
ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BEFORE
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DRIVES A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE WINDS LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE TIME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FETCH OFF OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE LAKESHORES SOUTH
INTO THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO...AND CONFIDENCE IN THESE WINDS COUPLED
WITH THE SNOW FORECAST IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SAINT LOUIS
UNIVERSITY CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM BEARS A
VERY STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE MARCH 7 1999 STORM THAT BROUGHT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE ROCHESTER AREA ALONG WITH OTHER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE PATTERN OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
STATE IS SIMILAR TO THE 1999 CASE...BUT THE COMBINATION OF MUCH
DEEPER AND STRONGER SURFACE LOW...990MB AND DEEPENING VERSUS 1012MB
AND STEADY IN 1999...AND A NEARLY PERFECT 300MB JET STREAK PATTERN
OF LEFT EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCING DEEP LAYER LIFT
IMPLY A MORE POTENT STORM OVER A WIDER AREA THAN AS WAS THE CASE IN
1999.

MANY COUNTIES IN WESTERN NY AND THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE ARE UNDER
BLIZZARD WARNINGS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINING COUNTIES NOT UNDER THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE JUST SHORT OF
THE CRITERIA FOR BLIZZARD WARNING BUT THE TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE QUITE TREACHEROUS AND DIFFICULT...AFTERNOON TRAVEL PLANS
SHOULD BE DELAYED OR RECONSIDERED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNDER
STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WIND CHILLS FALLING TO NEAR
ZERO. EVEN AS THE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...COLD NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FROM
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE INLAND TO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...WITH
NEAR ZERO OR BELOW ZERO READINGS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE LAST OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AT 12Z
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW A WEAKENING COMMA HEAD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE STILL CLIPPING THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF VERY
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THE MOST CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING
WHEN SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE IS STILL DECENT. BY AFTERNOON THE
COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY...AND THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL
LIKELY BREAK APART THE WEAK MULTIPLE BANDS INTO CELLULAR SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCAL 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE AN EXTREMELY COLD DAY BY MID MARCH STANDARDS...
WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID TEENS WHILE
SOME OF THE HILLTOPS STRUGGLE TO 10F. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LIKE MID-WINTER. IN FACT...DURING THE MORNING WIND
CHILLS MAY RUN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF BUFFALO...WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. SOME WIND
CHILLS MAY ALSO DROP TO -20 OR A FEW DEGREES COLDER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF LEWIS COUNTY SO A WIND CHILL HAS BEEN ADDED THERE
AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FROM
JUST EAST OF ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY...LIFTING FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST TOWARDS THE EAST END OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW BACKS. A NARROW RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
AND ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MANY AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LATE AS WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT.

ON FRIDAY A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A PERIOD
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE COLD OF
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RAPID TURNAROUND WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND UPPER 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY NIGHT SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEGINS FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT...BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS DEBATABLE...WITH THE
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY ON TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UTILIZING A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE...SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A CHILLY DAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. THE AIR MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A COASTAL
LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL BRING FAIR
BUT CHILLY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THIS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...BUT STILL PROBABLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN FROM WEST TO EAST. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE DOMINANT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING AS BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AFFECT WESTERN NY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35KT BY THE AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH THE HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS...SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW MAY FURTHER DELAY
GROUND OPERATIONS AT AREA TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A LESSENING OF
THE HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AFTER 00Z...SLACKENING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...LIFR/IFR IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SNOW IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE SNOW LINGERING LONGEST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR...WITH IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...REACHING NEW
JERSEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY GALES TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS THEN DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ008-
     012-019>021-085.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ001-002-
     010>012-019-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-
     014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043>045-
         063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH