Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 011520
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING UPTICK IN MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ANCHORING THE EXPANSION OF LIGHT SNOW AS EXPECTED.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION OF LIGHT
SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OHIO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY...WITH LIGHT SNOW NOW ALSO STARTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY...WITH SOME UPTICK EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A PERIOD OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT BEGINS.

STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WILL LARGELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK
STATE BORDER. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE ENHANCED FORCING TO SEE HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWS. WHILE MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND
SOUTHWESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AMOUNTS MAY ALSO
REACH 4-6 INCHES. AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEWIS COUNTY TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST.

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH VSBYS DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR THROUGH
MIDDAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE CIGS SHOULD DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH IFR BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH A WINTRY
MIX DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX
CHANGING TO RAIN. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK




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