Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 280341
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CAP WAS FAIRLY STUBBORN THIS EVENING...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DID EVOLVE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH DURING
MAX HEATING. ZONE OF GREATEST INSTABILITY EXTENDED FROM THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY WHERE MESO
ANALYSIS DEPICTED CAPES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1200 J/KG. SEVERAL
STORMS GARNERED SUFFICIENT CONCERN FOR SPSS AND EVEN A FEW FOR
WARNINGS GIVEN THEIR VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH LITTLE
AMBIENT WIND TO WORK WITH AND INSUFFICIENT COLD POOL
GENERATION...NO SEVERE REPORTS HAVE BEEN FIELDED THUS FAR.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY SEWD ADVANCING
SFC FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS AT THIS HOUR FROM JUST SE OF KJST
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR KIPT.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT A PATCH OF CIRRUS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO WHICH WILL FILTER ACROSS
CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS THE FRONT CLEARS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DECOUPLING IS
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS...LEADING TO THE USUAL RIVER VALLEY FOG
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MINS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE REFRESHING
UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE L60S IN THE SRN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COOL POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT MIGHT BE THE
APPROACH OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK FROM THE N/NE AS A STRONG PORT MAX
DROPS S ACROSS NY STATE. WILL KEEP POPS UP NEAR ISOLD NUMBERS IN
THE NE...BUT NOT MENTION PRECIP QUITE YET. A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NE THOUGH. MAXES WILL BE ABOUT 8-10F BELOW WEDNESDAY/S
LOFTY NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE WEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED
BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CANADA...AND TO A NEGATIVELY
TILTING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE
BIGGEST MOISTURE FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF PA.
 HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...WITH ENOUGH FORCING
TO WARRANT INCREASING PROBABILITY/OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIATION SO EXPECT SOME
MODIFICATIONS AS TIME PROGRESSES. A GFS AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE
ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING THE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE...LOCATED NEAR A KPIT-KUNV-KSEG LINE AT 03Z. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THIS AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT A PATCH OF CIRRUS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. USUAL VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN
THE NRN VALLEYS AS THE TEMPS DROP OFF WELL BELOW THE RIVER WATER
TEMPS. BUT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE WIND WHICH COULD IMPEDE FOG
FORMATION. WILL KEEP MVFR FOG IN MOST TAFS AND IFR FOG IN BFD FOR
A FEW HRS LATE TONIGHT.

THE NW WINDS PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE BUT SKIES AND VIS SHOULD
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW-
END VFR CLOUD DECK MAY DROP DOWN FROM WRN NY STATE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS ON THURS.


OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE
VFR.

SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.