Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 242348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
748 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this
morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week.
In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the
region by midweek. A cold front will likely push southeast
across the region next Friday.


Front passing with much drier (finally) air behind it. Last
vestiges of storms leaving the SE counties now and all should be
rather quiet as the front passes the very wet locations in the
Mid and Lower Susq. There could be an isolated shower or two but
large scale subsidence and drying will keep it mainly fair
through the rest of the evening. There are some low clouds under
the trough over the NW now, but any associated showers are
expected to be light and also stay mainly to the north of the NY
border. Fog may develop through the night - especially in the
east where the ground is very moist - but that drier air could
make it difficult to get back down to the dewpoint tonight. Of
course the temps in the NW/Wrn valleys could make river valley
fog with small/nil Tw:Ta differences. Will hold on that thought
for the moment, as the air is pretty dry and the clouds moving
in should keep it from radiating to really cold temps there.


A much more pleasant air mass will be over the region on Tuesday
bringing a more comfortable day with little to no chance of rain
for a change. Clouds may linger for a time over the Alleghenies
and keep temps a bit lower than guidance. Highs will only reach
the upper 60s north...and range through the 70s to the lower 80s
elsewhere. A nice change with dewpoints in the 50s.


High centered over central PA Tuesday night. Marine layer in
easterly flow may bring some clouds and a slight chance of a
shower into the eastern zones Wednesday. Next weather sytem
moves in Thursday with increasing chances of storms into the
night. Cold front moves southeast of PA Friday morning with a
lingering chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day as a
short-wave drops over the ridge to the west and into the trough
on the east coast. Conditions dry out for Saturday as high
pressure builds in. A wave on the front that moved south of PA
may bring showers up around the Mason-Dixon line Sunday.


Upper trough and sfc cold front will cross central PA by evening
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to central
and eastern PA mid to late afternoon with intermittant
localized impacts.

Showers diminish by evening, but linger the longest in the
northern mtns. This is also the best chance for ceiling
restrictions tonight. With plenty of low level moisture around,
expect valley fog to develop areawide as well.


Tue-Wed...AM cig restrictions north/west. Valley fog areawise.
Otherwise no sig wx.

Thu...Chance of afternoon TSRA/SHRA.

Fri...Slgt chc of morning shra...otherwise VFR.





NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.