Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 231804
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
204 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD IS ENTERING NWRN PA AND THE CLOUDS LOOK TO BE
THINNING OVERALL AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MIXING DOWN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING HIGH. EXPECT SKY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
INTO THE EVENING...WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE WEST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
MOVING IN. WHILE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE FROSTY LEVELS IN OUR
COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

OVERALL LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THE SEASON...RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID
30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WIND...A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
BET.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.