Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 300321
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
921 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STABLE AIR SETTLING IN ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT EARLY TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS STABLE LOW LEVEL COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONLY
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. COULD EVEN
SEE SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR FOG
SUCH AS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHWEST INTO NM. POTENT SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NE PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTORMS. RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE NE
PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER. RADAR
RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WERE INDICATED. ISSUED A
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SCOTTS BLUFF AND NORTHERN
BANNER COUNTIES DUE TO SPOTTER REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING AND
STANDING WATER. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.

SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AS TROUGH AND
INSTABILITY DEPART TO THE EAST. LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THE SHORT RANGE MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER AS
700MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 8 DEG C. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE CREEPING NORTHWARD
UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL AS SOME INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER
5 DEG C SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES FOR MONDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE US DRY
CONDITIONS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES +10 TO +12C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE PANHANDLE.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO
BELIEVE MOST OF TUESDAY THOUGH SHOULD BE DRY. 700MB TEMPERATURES
MAXING OUT TUESDAY AROUND +12 TO +14C. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO
MONDAY.

LATEST ECMWF REALLY BULLISH ON POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS SHOWING
ALMOST AN INCH OF QPF IN THE PANHANDLE AND AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF US
DRY. DID BEGIN TO INCREASE POPS SOME FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
WE FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH 03-06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INCLUDED TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS AT CYS AND SNY BY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING BY LATE TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORT LARAMIE IS CURRENTLY AT 8 FT AND IS FORECAST TO FALL TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM AT LARAMIE...
BANKFULL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF.

ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...HENRY NE IS CURRENTLY AT 5.6 FT AND
IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. AT MITCHELL NE...
THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY AT 8.9 FT AND IS FORECAST TO FALL TO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT MINITARE NE...THE STAGE IS
7.1 FT AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 7.1 AND 7.2 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NOTE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON RESULTED IN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 2.5 INCHES OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL NE PANHANDLE. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN MINOR RISES ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER NORTH
PLATTE RIVER AT SARATOGA IS PREDICTED TO SLOWLY RISE AND REACH
BANKFULL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
HYDROLOGY...MAJ



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