Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240628
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Short range models show an upper level shortwave moving eastward
across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today, ushering a
cold front through western Kansas this afternoon. Although a
northwest flow aloft will intensify across the Western High Plains,
a lack of moisture/instability will hinder precip chances across
western Kansas during the period, however some increased cloud
cover is likely. Temperatures will be well above normal today
regardless of a cold front pushing through western Kansas this
afternoon. Should see highs back up into the 70s(F) toward early
afternoon with temperatures then dropping during the mid to late
afternoon hours as colder air begins to surge southward across
western Kansas. Expect lows generally down into the 30s(F)
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The extended stretch of dry weather for SW KS will continue
through Monday, and probably Tuesday. There is some hope for
needed rain and/or snow around Wednesday next week.

Saturday..."Cooler", but still well above where we should be in
late November. Shortwave embedded in NW flow aloft will be
accompanied by a cooler surface high at the surface, trimming
afternoon temperatures back to the lower 60s. With the surface
high nearby delivering a weak pressure gradient, winds will be
light and Saturday will be a good day to hang the Christmas
lights on the house.

Sunday...Warmer. Persistently strong upper high over NW Mexico
expands NE into the plains with strong 500 mb heights rises. The
next warming trend will begin, with many locations reaching 70
degrees. Winds will still be light.

Monday...Even warmer. The warmest temperatures of the forecast are
expected Monday afternoon, as a very warm plume originating off
the Mexican plateau is directed onto the plains, ahead of a
pattern-changing strong cutoff low in Nevada. Expect 70s at all
locales Monday afternoon, with some lower 80s here and there. The
record high at Dodge City for November 27th is 81/1933. It will be
tough to reach, but not impossible with gusty downslope SW winds
and a very dry ground.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Weather pattern will finally change across
the plains, with models in agreement on a strong shortwave/closed
low quickly crossing the plains during this time frame. 12z GFS is
much more progressive than the 12z ECMWF, and GFS displays a known
progressive bias during the medium range. For example, GFS places
its closed low in western Oklahoma 6 pm Tuesday, while the ECMWF
has its closed low over the Four Corners. A huge difference, and
this timing disparity will impact when our precipitation chances
will occur. Feel the slower ECMWF solution will win out, but even
its eastward translation is faster than we would like to see for
significant precipitation generation in SW KS. Still, 12z
deterministic ECMWF offers some hope for a parched plains,
tracking the upper low directly over SW KS on Wednesday, with
strong lift producing a strong QPF signal across the NE zones.
Seems a bit wet for a system moving so quickly, and with everybody
looking for moisture, there are precious few pops in the grids and
forecast until we know more. Much cooler Tuesday and Wednesday,
almost down to normal!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Friday
evening. West-southwest winds 5 to 10kt will persist through late
Friday morning as a weak surface trough moves east across central
into eastern Kansas. Winds will turn northerly 10 to 20kt Friday
afternoon as a cold front pushes across western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  77  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  75  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  75  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  77  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  75  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  43  78  39  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson



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