Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290802
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
302 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...Updated Short and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Subtle upper level waves embedded in a southerly tropical flow
will cross western Kansas today and tonight as they rotate around
an upper level ridge axis that will be located over the Mid
Mississippi Valley. Any one of this disturbances could easily
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time
confidence is not high that any model has a good handle on where
and when the convection will develop later today so will stay
fairly general on precipitation chances this afternoon and
tonight. Very heavy rainfall still appears to be the main hazard
from these storms.

For early today...the latest radar loop indicating a few
thunderstorms were already developing along the I-70 corridor and
another area of storms were increasing in coverage just west of
the Colorado border. Given this along with the latest NAM and HRRR
suggesting that convection will either develop or move into
western Kansas through through daybreak will lean towards
following the general solutions of these models for the first 6 to
9 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Subtle upper level disturbances embedded in a tropical air mass
will continue Tuesday as the upper level ridge axis shifts
westward into western Oklahoma and the upper low, located near the
four corners region at 00z Monday, slowly moves east northeast
across northern New Mexico. At this time given the poor
performance on timing and track of the upper waves and storm
initiation over the past the last few days beyond 12 hours
confidence is low on exactly where and when the better chances for
precipitation will occur so will stay close to persistence through
mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

A south to southeasterly wind at less than 10 knots can be
expected through Monday morning across western Kansas as a trough
of low pressure at the surface remains nearly stationary over
eastern Colorado. Some patchy fog can not be completely ruled out
around daybreak given the low to mid 60 degree surface dew points
and a light south to southeast flow. Models soundings indicating
low level moisture will be very shallow with the bulk of the
moisture in the model soundings being at or above the 700mb level.
Dense fog is not anticipated but possibly a brief period of 3-5sm
in fog could develop. Otherwise VFR conditions can be expected at
all three taf sites through the remainder of the night and early
Monday. There will also be a chance for some rain showers or even
a few thunderstorms today as subtle waves embedded in a tropical
southerly flow crosses western Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  65  84  64 /  40  40  40  50
GCK  82  63  82  63 /  40  40  30  50
EHA  80  62  81  62 /  40  40  40  60
LBL  82  63  82  63 /  50  50  40  60
HYS  83  65  81  64 /  40  40  40  50
P28  87  68  86  68 /  30  30  40  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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