Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 012057
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
257 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WILL MOVE OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY MIDDAY MONDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WAS ONGOING
OVER WESTERN KANSAS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. COLD AIR
ORIGINATING FROM THE YUKON/NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION HAD
MOVED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TONIGHT, THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK WITH TIME TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS, THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER WITH LOWS AROUND
ELKHART FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. AS THE COLD AIRMASS ERODES FROM THE WEST, WESTERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOST WARMING WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. TOWARD
CENTRAL KANSAS, HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
OTHERWISE, ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS WILL FEATURE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRIER
THAN AVERAGE PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD AIR IS POURING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND HAYS. HOWEVER, IT
IS HARD TO KEEP ARCTIC AIR WEDGED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES IN THIS
KIND OF PATTERN AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
TENDS TO SHUNT THE COLD AIR EASTWARD QUICKLY. A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE WEEK AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AGAIN, WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY AND 60S AND
70S BY SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS WELL
WITH A CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME VARIABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY MORNING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
VFR SKIES AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS COULD PERIODICALLY OCCUR AT HAYS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  44  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  11  48  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  19  55  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  16  50  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   5  40  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  10  39  26  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD



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