Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 191139
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
339 AM PST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Another relative lessoning in the showers possible
today during the afternoon. More steady precipitation will return
tonight and continue through Tuesday night. Heaviest rain will
occur from Monday into Tuesday morning, with around 2 to 4 inches
of accumulation. A drying trend is expected to start around mid-
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The next round of more steady rain is expected to
arrive tonight. We expect another short lived break in the
showers this afternoon. However, the break will not last long and
may only be a lessoning in the showers as the next system
approaches rapidly from the west.


The next batch of heavier precipitation will move into the area
overnight. Rain will intensify by morning, and continue through
Monday into Tuesday morning. Precipitation amount will be less
than an inch today. Snow level will be 3500 to 4500 feet.
However, expect accumulation only up to around an inch at these
elevations with up to 2 inches at higher elevations. The big
weather maker will be the next system bringing in the atmospheric
river with it`s increasing snow levels. For the last few model
runs, ECMWF and GFS are hinting on that the main axis of the
atmospheric river will aim towards the Bay Area and this continued
with the over night runs. For NW California, we will be on the
northern fringe of this atmospheric river. The axis of heaviest
rainfall should stay south of the area. However, we will still be
seeing persistent southwesterly onshore upslope flow. We will be
seeing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, with around 2 to 4
inches of rain expected from Monday through Tuesday. Just to note
there are still some uncertainties in the forecast so have
continued with an areal flood watch for now. If the actual track
of the atmospheric river shifts, that can lead to major changes
in the location of the impacts of the system. We will be
monitoring the situation closely, as models still haven`t come to
a conclusion on the location and orientation of the axis of
heaviest rainfall. Showers will continue from Tuesday into
Wednesday. After that, looks like we will finally be going into a
drying trend. But models are indicating...with a healthy amount of
uncertainty...that a much colder northerly flow will also
accompany that drying trend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR to MVFR conditions and moderate to moderate and gusty winds will
continue at KCEC and KACV through this evening. The lower conditions will be due
to reduced ceilings. Showers will move across the region at times this morning.
The winds will be moderate and gusty overnight tonight at KCEC and KACV with
showers moving through the area overnight tonight. Reduced ceilings and/or
visibilities will occur overnight with increased cloudiness and showers moving
through the region. MVFR conditions and light winds will continue at KUKI
through this morning with the lower the conditions due to reduced ceilings
and/or visibilities as showers move across the region at times today. The winds
will become moderate and gusty this evening and overnight at KUKI with showers
moving across the area overnight tonight reducing ceilings and visibilities to
MVFR and IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...The winds and seas diminished across the waters Saturday evening. A
cold front will approach the waters today and Monday. The winds and seas have
increased across the waters this morning as the cold front approaches the
region. The front will move through the waters on Monday. Small craft advisories
are in effect across the outer waters and northern near shore waters through
Tuesday morning due to increasing winds and seas. A small craft advisory will be
in effect across the southern near shore waters this afternoon through Tuesday
morning due to increasing winds and seas. Wind gust near gale force will
occur across the northern portions of the northern outer waters Monday as the
frontal boundary passes through the area.

&&

HYDROLOGY...River level forecasts have been adjusted down. The
Navarro River at Navarro is still forecast by the RFC to rise just
above flood stage on Tuesday, but crest is forecast to be several
feet below Friday`s forecast. The Eel River at Fernbridge and the
Klamath River at Klamath are still forecast to rise above monitor
stage early next week. The latest forecast for the Mad River at
Arcata brings the crest just below monitor stage. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for
     CAZ101>106-108>113.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for PZZ450-470-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon PST
     Tuesday for PZZ455.

&&

$$

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