Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 241050

National Weather Service Eureka CA
350 AM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Warming trend for NW California through Tuesday, with
above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected for the next
seven days.


.DISCUSSION...Overnight temperatures wasn`t as cold as the previous
two nights. This is due to the fact that the upper level trough have
shifted east of the area into Intermountain West. However, there are
still a few chilly spots overnight, with mid to upper 30s observed
in Ruth and Hayfork. Will be another sunny day today, and do expect
temperatures to get to around 80 degrees for interior locations.

As the upper level ridge builds over the West Coast, height will
rise through Tuesday. Do expect warming temperatures through
Tuesday, with highs around 90 degrees in the warmest interior
locations. The upper level ridge will persist through Wednesday.
After that, looks like the ridge will flatten, but the main storm
track will remain in the Pacific Northwest. Thus, do not expect
precipitation for the next 7 days.


.AVIATION...High pressure continues to bring clear skies and dry
conditions to the area. Some marine stratus has developed around
Humboldt Bay and may push into KACV this morning although
confidence is low on this. Any stratus that does form is expected
to clear by midday. Breezy conditions are expected this afternoon
along the coast once again. Tonight there may be some areas of
stratus along the coast especially around Humboldt Bay, but
confidence is low on the duration and coverage and whether it will
impact KACV or KCEC. For now will just put some scattered clouds
in the forecast.


.MARINE...Moderate northerly winds continue across the outer
waters this morning with high pressure over the area. Winds and
waves have diminished in the inner waters and will allow the small
craft advisories to expire. The northwesterly swell has diminished
to around 3 feet at 11 seconds. Winds and seas will increase again
this afternoon closer to the coast, but models are indicating that
the small craft advisory level waves will remain beyond 10 NM and
the winds will remain mainly below 20 kt. The exceptions will
likely be south of Cape Mendocino and Pt St George where local
gusts to 30 kt are possible.

Monday winds and seas are expected to peak. This will likely push
small craft level seas and winds into the inner waters Monday
afternoon and evening, but will hold off on issuing anything for
now. Winds and seas will start to diminish on Tuesday, but models
have slowed down shortwave that is expected to break up the
pressure gradient. Now it looks like the winds will remain
elevated through Wednesday morning so have extended the small
craft advisory for the outer waters.

Late in the week the ECMWF and GFS are in generally good agreement
that there will light winds across the area. The GFS is slightly
stronger with the shortwave and brings a longer period of light
southerly winds than the ECMWF. The ECMWF is also quicker to bring
high pressure and northerly winds back to the area for the
weekend. No significant swells are expected through the week,
although the northwest swell is expected to linger around 3 or 4
feet at 10 to 12 seconds. MKK


.FIRE WEATHER...Through early this week, do expect warming
and drying conditions. After that, above normal temperatures and low
humidity will persist through end of the work week. Through
Wednesday, nocturnal offshore winds will develop each evening and
continue through the overnight hours. The strongest winds will be
confined in Sacramento Valley and south of Mendocino County. The
offshore winds ill lead to moderate to poor overnight recoveries
along ridges. With a combination of gusty offshore winds and low
humidity, do expect quasi-critical fire weather conditions in
Mendocino and Lake counties on Monday and Tuesday.


NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470-475.



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