Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 301111
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
411 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED...MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF MENDOCINO...SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT...AND SOUTHERN TRINITY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE TRINITY ALPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE REDWOOD COAST WILL SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF W MENDOCINO COUNTY. THESE ARE THE
RESULT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT...AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT N AND NE
AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY. HAVE INCLUDED 15% POPS IN THE
AFFECTED AREA...BUT EXPECT MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
DRY AIR THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN DUE TO MONSOONAL FLOW TODAY.
EXPECT A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE TRINITY HORN AND UP INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR COVERAGE TO TUESDAY`S PATTERN.
GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...ALTHO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LOWER 500 MB LAPSE RATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP BREAK THE CAP...BUT SCATTERED COVERAGE
IS ONLY ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TRINITY/SISKIYOU LINE AND POINTS N.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON THU. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN POPS...AGAIN FOCUSED
TOWARD THE TRINITY HORN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING BENEATH THE N PAC LOW AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL INLAND
TEMPERATURE THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ENUF INSTABILITY FOR AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE N INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

THE BANK OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO SHRINK TONIGHT AND
THU...BUT A SMALLER AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE REDWOOD
COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT KCEC
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KACV DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH THIS
MORNING AT KACV. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTERACTING
WITH THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA MAINTAINING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE ELEVATED WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE THIS WEEK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRINITY/SISKIYOU BORDER. AT THIS TIME...
THE ZONE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER... WILL HIGHLIGHT TSTMS IN AN FWF HEADLINE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM SUN PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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