Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 291432
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW


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