Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 231745
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1058 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

UPDATE...
Current forecast is in good shape this morning. Surface high
pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states is responsible for
ridge/wedge down the lee side of the Appalachians into Georgia.
Low level cloud cover has accompanied the wedge.

Expect wedge to keep temperatures a bit cooler today than previous
few days with highs in the 60s for most places /50s higher
elevations of north Georgia/. Low level clouds may scatter out
through the day...but do expect an increase later this evening
into the overnight hours. No precip expected today or tonight.

Current fire weather thoughts do not deviate from midnight shift`s
reasoning so refer to fire weather section for more details on
expected conditions this afternoon.

Kovacik

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Relatively quiet short term fcst given ridge dominated regime and
some mid-level moisture return to allow for relatively cloudy but
precip-free conditions through Friday. The strong parent 1035mb+
high currently sliding into New England has allowed inverted ridging
east of the Appalachians and resultant NE to east sfc fetch
characteristic of a classical CAD setup. While temps should be
limited to the low to mid 60s for much of the CWA today, the wedge
effect should be short-lived since the high is progged to quickly
push off the mid-Atlantic coast by Friday. This orientation will
also allow for a bit stronger moisture transport off the Gulf and
Atlantic in the form of a thicker/lower stratocu deck early Friday.
Not seeing much in the form of lifting mechanisms so just expecting
mostly cloudy Friday morning becoming a pleasant partly cloudy
afternoon and near normal temps in the 70s for most locales.

Baker

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

Surface high pressure well off-shore will continue to move further
out to sea Friday night into Saturday. Meanwhile, ridging aloft
will erode ahead of the next storm system. Expect increasing
clouds Saturday afternoon/evening as a front approaches. In the
mid- levels, a closed low dropping out of the Rockies will pivot
toward the Ohio River Valley through the weekend. A cold front
associated with this system will continue to track east across the
central CONUS, becoming washed out before reaching Georgia. In
addition, the dynamics associated with this system will lift north
as it approaches Saturday night into Sunday. Anticipate showers
will move into northwestern Georgia Saturday afternoon/evening.
With very little surface convergence and much of the energy within
the mid-levels waning, do not have the highest confidence that
this system will hold together, especially through the day
Sunday. Therefore, current thinking is highest pops across the
northern tier of Georgia Saturday night into Sunday with the rest
of the area experiencing chance pops. Also, given weak
instability and shear, kept schc thunderstorm in Saturday evening
through Sunday. The system will lift to the north with the front
never quite making it into Georgia.

For the first half of the work-week model inconsistencies are
making confidence a bit lower. However, a progressive pattern will
continue during this time with another wave of precipitation
(showers/thunderstorms) possible Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. The ECM has another potent system approaching quickly by
mid-week under warm southerly flow. While the GFS is introducing
a distinct frontal passage by Wednesday, bringing drier and cooler
air into the region thereafter. Have hedged at the end of the
period in hopes of seeing better model continuity in time.

Under warm southerly flow through much of the long term, expect above
normal temperatures, highs primarily in the 70s.

FIRE WEATHER...

A building ridge of high pressure from the northeast will allow for
dry conditions today. While the low levels should remain dry, there
does look to be some mid level moisture that should result in some
more enhanced cloud coverage today into tonight. Resultant RH values
may approach 25 to 30 percent briefly in portions of the far east
this afternoon, though for now not reaching critical fire danger
thresholds. Winds look to be in the 10-15 mph range out of the east
for this morning into early afternoon, though begin to decrease to 5-
10 mph for the latter/drier part of the day. No fire danger
statement will be issued at the moment but if stronger winds or
lower RH values start trending, then one may be warranted in parts
of the east CWA.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Not many wholesale changes since the 12z update. VFR conditions
expected through the rest of today...with clouds increasing from
the south. Seems likely that MVFR conditions will spread into the
region late in the overnight hours from south to north...but
confidence is not high on coverage. Any MVFR should scatter out
and become more of a BKN VFR deck Friday afternoon. Despite
increasing cloudiness...precip is not expected this TAF cycle.
E/SE winds 10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts today will decrease this
evening...picking back up to around 10kts late Friday morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on cloud trends...especially MVFR coverage Friday morning
High on all other elements

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  44  70  52 /   0   0   0   5
Atlanta         62  49  70  55 /   0   0   0   5
Blairsville     57  41  62  49 /   0   5  10  10
Cartersville    62  48  70  53 /   0   5   5   5
Columbus        68  52  76  57 /   0   0   0   5
Gainesville     59  45  66  52 /   0   0   5   5
Macon           66  48  75  53 /   0   0   0   5
Rome            64  48  71  53 /   0   0   5   5
Peachtree City  64  47  72  52 /   0   0   0   5
Vidalia         67  50  74  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...Kovacik



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