Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KFFC 211919
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF
WARMING NOTED IN THE 12Z KFFC SOUNDING BETWEEN 700-850MB. THIS HAS
SERVED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
ACTUALLY A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH SBCAPE VALUES
LIMITED TO UNDER 2000 J/KG SO EVEN CONVECTIVE CU HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...BUT CONVECTION GOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WEST
GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH. CAPE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG WITH DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG SO EXPECT BEST CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THOSE AREAS.

RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
EXPECT EVEN LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW. SO THE OTHER BIG
STORY IS THE CONTINUED HEAT. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TOMORROW...GENERALLY FOR THE SAME AREAS. TOOK A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SINCE THE MET CONTINUES TO BE
COOLER AND MORE MOIST VS. THE MAV WARMER AND DRIER. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA...SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SEEN
IN A COUPLE OF YEARS.

TDP

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM
TRENDS ACROSS GEORGIA...AT LEAST REGARDING THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RIDGE IS DEPICTED
AT ITS STRONGEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME WEAKENING BY THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CENTER OF THE RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE
STATE WHEN THE RIDGE IS AT ITS STRONGEST...AND I DO NOT BELIEVE WE
CAN ELIMINATE POPS COMPLETELY...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHT AT BEST. BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD THE RIDGE WEAKENS ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS. ANY CONVECTION
WILL SHOW A DECIDEDLY DIURNAL BIAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MODERATION BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNS EASTERLY.

BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. 00Z/06Z RUNS FROM
YESTERDAY WERE PUSHING THE SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT HAVE
DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE 12Z/18Z AND NOW THE NEW 00Z RUNS.
THE TREND HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVELY MORE EASTERLY WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS IS STILL A LONG WAY OFF AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE HANDLING OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MCN
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. FEW-SCT CU BETWEEN 4-6KFT THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY NW
THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN 5-10KT AFTERNOONS AND NEARLY CALM
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AS USUAL A LITTLE HIGHER AT ATL. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF TSRA ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH IN THE TAF.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION TODAY...LOW ON IMPACTS TO ATL.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  99  74  97 /  20  20   5  30
ATLANTA         75  95  75  95 /  20  20   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     66  90  66  89 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  96  71  94 /  20  20   5  20
COLUMBUS        76  99  77  98 /  20  20   5  20
GAINESVILLE     72  95  74  92 /  20  20   5  30
MACON           72  99  73  98 /  20  20   5  20
ROME            70  96  72  95 /  20  20  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  71  96  72  95 /  20  20   5  20
VIDALIA         74 101  75  99 /  10  20   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.