Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 251124
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
724 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued /
SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
High pressure will move offshore today. Not much going on weather-
wise at the surface for the next two days. However, the mid levels
will remain active.
Nearly zonal flow aloft will allow for several shortwaves in the
flow to traverse the CWFA through Thursday afternoon. The hi-res
models are beginning to pick up on these features and produce a
little more coverage of convection than in previous forecasts. The
models, even the hi-res, still have difficulty timing these features
and struggle with convective coverage even in the best of times. So,
have blended the trends of the local arw and wrf runs to paint
iso/sct coverage mainly across the north Georgia mountains today. A
bit more coverage is indicated tomorrow...with iso/sct coverage
mainly north of I-20.
Temps will continue to above normal.
LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Extended forecast period starts out somewhat quiet as subsidence and
slightly drier air push in from the east ahead of the western
Atlantic low Friday through much of Saturday. Deep Atlantic moisture
pushes in by Sunday as the western Atlantic system edges closer.
First half of next week looks to be potentially quite wet as this
system lingers over the region. Still some differences between the
GFS and ECMWF models concerning some of the details...but both show
some manner of weak upper-level and surface low pressure wobbling
around the Carolinas and Georgia. Precipitable water values are
forecast to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range through the period but weak
mid-level lapse rates keep instability minimal.
VFR conditions through the period. Hi-res models are producing a
little more convective coverage for today and Thursday...but the
best chances remain to the north of ATL at this time. The main
forecast challenge remains the winds.Winds could go se for a few
hours around 12z this morning...but should go back to the w side
with mixing. Hi-res models showing winds going to the east side
again this evening and overnight. Speeds will remain light and
should average around 6kt or less.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence winds. Otherwise...high confidence all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 87 63 88 64 / 10 5 30 20
Atlanta 86 67 87 66 / 10 5 20 20
Blairsville 82 60 84 60 / 30 10 30 20
Cartersville 88 63 88 65 / 10 5 20 20
Columbus 88 66 88 67 / 10 5 10 5
Gainesville 85 65 86 64 / 20 5 30 20
Macon 89 64 89 63 / 10 5 20 5
Rome 88 62 89 64 / 10 5 30 20
Peachtree City 87 62 87 63 / 10 5 20 10
Vidalia 88 65 88 65 / 10 5 10 0