Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 202125
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
225 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sun...
A closed low presently sitting off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest remains encased in a broad upper trough extending
eastward from the western coast of the U.S. through the Northern
High Plains.

A band of light showers has steadily made its way east across the
forecast area today and is expected to continue to do so tonight.
In fact, 12z operational guidance shows potential for light
showers through the day on Sunday. An examination of Bufkit
forecast soundings at Sidney show that while an elevated warm nose
will exist at times into the weekend, the dew point depression
within the boundary layer is relatively large. Therefore, while
snow showers and flurries will continue at times, precipitation
should allow enough evaporative cooling of the column to avoid
freezing rain and/or drizzle. However, if precipitation is
sufficiently light, evaporative effects may be lower than
anticipated and some patchy freezing drizzle may occur. This was
left out of the forecast for now but may need to be considered for
late tonight into the weekend. Maliawco



.LONG TERM...Sun night through Fri...

Blended inherited grids with 12Z guidance. System that bypasses
the CWA to our south late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning could
clip our southern zones but dry slot from the north will allow for
a sharp cut-off near our southern border. TFJ

Previous Discussion...
Amid some weak low pressure systems and a generally progressive
upper-level flow pattern, northeast Montana is in for only a few
passing slight chances for scattered snow showers in the extended
forecast period.

The general large-scale upper-level trough pattern concentrates
the best of these chances for snow from Monday through Wednesday
night. Otherwise expect a very quiet weather pattern with
temperatures at or slightly below normal level for this time of
year.

BMickelson

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: Mainly VFR.

Moisture from a system that has produced Freezing Rain and/or
Drizzle should move south of KGDV/KSDY tonight east into North
Dakota. An isolated patch of Freezing Drizzle cannot be ruled out,
as well as fog and/or IFR Stratus clouds.

WIND: From the west or northwest at or less than 10 mph.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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