Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 230933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
333 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Sun...

Broad upper trof will be swinging through the Great Lakes over the
weekend as upper ridge builds over the west coast. Northwest flow
into Montana will keep temperatures generally below normal but
with a warming trend expected as the ridge pushes east.

High pressure sliding down the front range will provide pressure
rises and gradient for another breezy day in northeast Montana.
Strongest winds will be in the eastern zones, but enough for Lake
Wind Advisory again on Fort Peck Lake today. High pressure pushes
east over the weekend for diminishing winds.

Some moisture in the northwest flow, which could provide enough
instability for showers, however with lack of forcing will keep
forecast dry. Ebert

.LONG TERM...Sun night through Fri...

The upper flow pattern beginning Sunday evening will consist of a
high pressure ridge axis lined up near the Divide, and a long-wave
trough over eastern CONUS. This pattern will maintain a northwest
flow over eastern Montana. The ridge will shift east Monday to
increase heights for the Northeast Montana forecast area. Expect
temperatures to rise around 10F degrees over Sunday, and the same
amount above average. Flow aloft begins to back around to the
southwest Monday night or Tuesday as a weak disturbance kicks
across the Divide. The associated frontal boundary could initiate
showers Monday evening and Tuesday. Beefed up pops in this area
beyond blended model guidance. Timing is not yet settled, and
the strength of convection will depend on timing.

Tuesday night a short-wave, embedded in a broader trough, swings
across northern Montana and southern regions of the prairie
provinces, which could bring more showers and convection up to the
weekend. The uncertainty caused by model differences means there
is a rather wide range of possibilities from scattered showers and
thunder to much warmer and drier conditions by the weekend. Due to
the uncertainty, went with the forecast builder for the most part.




Expected flight conditions: VFR

A short-wave disturbance dropping south through Saskatchewan into
North Dakota will spread low-to-mid level, broken stratus over the
terminal areas near the North Dakota border.

Winds: the vertical wind profile will line up with northwest
winds. Expect surface winds to become gusty by late morning and
increase to 20kt to 25kt, gusting to 30kt to 35kt.



Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...
Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.


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