Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 302013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
213 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FILLS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF CONUS WITH
TWO EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW/STORM SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BECOME THE MAIN REGIONAL FEATURE
TONIGHT AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INCLUDING NEMONT.

THAT NARROW WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER ALBERTA INTO
MONDAY AND PUT NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING THICKNESS HEIGHTS TO AROUND 560DM BY 00Z TUESDAY
WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND. THIS IS A VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA PUMPING IN DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO UNUSUAL WILL BE
WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS
WILL BE REVERSED FROM THE WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE BRINGING IN DRY AIR
AS WELL. EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT.

SCT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT NORTHEAST MONTANA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS CONTINUED TO TREND UP CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPING THIS LOW AND SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
MONTANA...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION RESULT IN LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFICS. WILL PUSH BACK THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
TO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD THEM EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...ALSO
EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SKC.

WINDS: EASTERLY AT 10-20KTS...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10KTS AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING. KGGW WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS.
GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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