Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Updated aviation section

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have fired again this
afternoon but unlike the last few days, available moisture has
lessened somewhat. This happened because the high pressure
centered to our east has built westward causing moisture
transport from the south to lower considerably. However, with
enough moisture remaining in the atmosphere, daytime heating will
be more than enough to fire off convection. As one would expect,
as heating wanes, most convection will end though a stray shower
is certainly possible. Tomorrow, more of the same as remnant
monsoonal moisture allows convection to fire yet again. Coverage
will be less than seen today. Expect normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

It`s not a question of if but when the next monsoonal push of
moisture returns. The general gist is that an approaching trough
will push the center of high pressure back to the east over the
weekend allowing another surge of moisture to stream into the
area. Some timing issues arise as to when exactly this will happen
so confidence not as high as it could be. The biggest push looks
to occur Sunday into Sunday night with the San Juans and central
mountains being the big winners. Having said that, expect more
plentiful showers and storms Saturday evening through Tuesday
evening with a downturn expected Wednesday onwards.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Afternoon tstorms will develop after 18z Thursday over the higher
terrain, but will be mostly confined to the mountains on Thursday.
Gusty winds will be possible at mountain sites with lightning
possibly around or within 10nm.




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