Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 251358 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
958 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO NH AS WELL AS AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. SO FAR LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND AND ACCORDING TO AREA SOUNDINGS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE STILL
BEFORE IT DOES WITH QUITE A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. ADJUSTED SKY COVER... HOURLY TEMPERATURES...
AS WELL AS TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ROOM FOR PORTLAND
AND AREAS LIKE WISCASSET TO REACH 80S AS THEY ARE WARMING RAPIDLY
WITH THE HELP OF WEST WINDS. THEREFORE WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FORECAST AND BROUGHT HIGHS UP A LITTLE IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT
ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE
NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS
MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO
PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS.

GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE
DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPRINKLES ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF
MID DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA
BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE
HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU
THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE
NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING
AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE
THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWING
MORE RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG
MOST OF THE COAST. THE MIDCOAST AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO
VFR ON TUE.


LONG TERM...WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME
CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY.


LONG TERM...WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST
TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG
CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES


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