Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 012219
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
519 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CREST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOP NEAR LONG ISLAND NY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT
FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE SNOW SHIELD FOR
AWHILE...BUT THE LEADING EDGE SHOULD GET TO THE BIGGER CITIES SUCH
AS MANCHESTER...NASHUA...CONCORD WELL BEFORE DAWN AND PORTLAND BUT
THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE.

LOWS WILL BE COLD...AND IT MAY EVEN RADIATE FOR AWHILE THIS
EVENING WHERE THE WINDS GO CALM AND CLOUDS HOLD OFF FOR A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GROUNDHOG DAY SNOWSTORM IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. OVERALL...THE LATEST
MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL...AND THEREFORE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED NORTHWARD. WE ARE EXPECTING A GENERAL 9-13 INCH SNOWFALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

AS FORCING INCREASES AS MONDAY MORNING WEARS ON...THE SNOW WILL
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...POSSIBLY FALLING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
FOR A TIME. A SHARP COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP JUST SOUTHEAST OF
OUR FORECAST ZONES...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES AND
TOTALS NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. MID
LEVEL WARM AIR WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THWARTED. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT SOUTHERNMOST NH SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST THAT.

THIS WILL BE A VERY COLD STORM...NOT UNLIKE THE ONE WE EXPERIENCED
IN EARLY JANUARY 2014. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST...WITH LOWER TEENS POSSIBLE ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SOUTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WITH WINDS INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE. IN
ADDITION...THESE INCREASING WIND GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH DEPENDING ON
LOCATION /STRONGER AT COAST/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A FLUFFY SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING IN WESTERN NH...THEN FINALLY OFF THE MID
COAST BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNWFL WINDS DOWN EARLY TUE AS LOW PRES DEPARTS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH GUSTY
WLY FLOW. NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS MID...WED AND THU...AS A QUICK
MOVING NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES USHERING IN
THE NEXT ARCTIC BLAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW MUCH THIS FEATURE AMPLIFIES ONCE IT REACHES THE NORTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF A COLD FROPA
WED...FOLLOWED BY MORE FOCUS ON THE SRN STREAM S/WV OFF THE COAST
THU. AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE
THU...THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST DOES QPF MAKE
IT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SN OR SHSN ARE LIKELY WED INTO
THU...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ALSO LOOK TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE RECENT RUN
OF STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASE POP AND
QPF SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO AGGRESSIVE AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL SHIFTS ARE STILL LIKELY OVER
THE COMING 24 TO 48 HOURS.

BEYOND MIDWEEK A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS PREFERRED. IN GENERAL
WE/LL SEE TRANSIENT HIGH PRES FOR THE LATE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FROPA LATE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK IT IS POSSIBLE ANOTHER
LOW PRES TRIES TO FORM ON THIS TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHETHER
OR NOT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT OUR AREA IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL DETERIORATE
LATE TONIGHT TO IFR IN SNOW FROM SW TO NE...ARRIVING IN MHT AND
CON AROUND 09Z...AND PWM AROUND 12Z. LIFR VIS AND CIGS EXPECTED
ALL DAY MONDAY THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING. SFC
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY...AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON THE
COAST.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. WED INTO THU A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSSING THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
AREAL EXTENT OF STEADY SNWFL AT THIS TIME...BUT AT LEAST A PERIOD
OF SHSN IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE FORECAST TRENDS TO
MORE WIDESPREAD AND PREVAILING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...RATHER
THAN TEMPO.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL
ZONES AS GALE CENTER MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS LOW PRES
PULLS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO LINGER INTO TUE. WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE WATERS THRU THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS MID
WEEK.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THIS STORM AS
TIDES WILL BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ018-023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014-019>022-024>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ007.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MEZ008-009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NHZ003>015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE/CEMPA
SHORT TERM...MLE/CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO



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