Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 202049
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
349 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
FLOW TO TURN ONSHORE. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN REGIONS RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE INTO EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SC CONTINUES TO POUR IN OFF THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...SOME PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO ENTER
THE SEACOAST OF NH THIS EVENING. 12Z MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THESE SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
DROP A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IN THE MHT THROUGH PSM CORRIDOR.

WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UP NORTH...EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. SOME AREAS IN THE NORTH WERE BELOW
ZERO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE PERSISTENT OVER SRN NH EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO
OCEAN EFFECT...WITH DRYING OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN AREAS MAY BRING A
SNOW SHOWER OR TWO TO THE MIDCOAST AREA OF MAINE.

SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK SYSTEM SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ALONG THE COAST AND SOME LOW CLOUDINESS. THIS WILL KEEP MIN
TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY INTO TUE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEPEST ALONG THE COAST. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
OR EVEN SOME FRZG DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE MON AND MON NIGHT. ON TUE
THE WARMER ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENS AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE ALLOWING A SELY FLOW TO INCREASE...SO CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT IMTERMITTENT PCPN. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE THE ONSET OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT WHERE THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
AS A STRONG WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL JET AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR W AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. QPF TOTALS FOR LATE TUE INTO THU
COULD BE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE AND DUE TO VERY WARM AIR THIS WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME FLOODING
PROBLEMS MAY ARISE IN THE HEADWATERS BY WED NIGHT OR THU DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND THE HEAVY RAINS. ALL MODELS AGREE
ON MILD TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

SYSTEM FINALLY WINDS DOWN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE WEAKER APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND
WHICH ALSO LOOKS WARM AND WET.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERNMOST NH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR AT COASTAL TERMINALS
MONDAY AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MVFR
LIKELY TO HOLD TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...LOWERING TO IFR LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO THU IN RAIN...WITH INCREASING E-SE WINDS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW WIND GUSTS CONTINUE JUST BELOW 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES 4` OR LOWER...THEREFORE NO FLAGS IN THE
NEAR TERM. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES WILL MOVE WELL TO THE WEST AND WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH
BORDERLINE STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. SEAS COULD BUILD
IN EXCESS OF 15 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE
LOOKS LOW ON BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPE
OF EVENTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


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