Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 021913
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
213 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY BUT RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MARITIME PROVINCES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...AND
PRODUCING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND MIXED RAIN OR SNOW ALONG THE COAST.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
210 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE FOOTHILLS IN ME AND NH. STRONG NWLY FLOW
CAUSING SOME UPSLOPING SNOW IN THE FAVORED AREAS. THIS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AND DRY UP THIS EVENING.

945 AM UPDATE: AFTER INPUTTING LATEST OBS DATA FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND POPS. ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
OTHER INLAND AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

550 AM...MADE SOME UPDATES TO POPS...MOSTLY TO COVER THE WEAK
AREA OF SN OVER ERN ZONES...THAT SEEMS TO BE ORIGINATING FROM SOME
LOW TO MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WEAK 850MB FRONT...AND WEAK SFC WIND
BOUNDARY. 00Z NAM-DNG SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS AS IT
BUILDS A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND THEN SHIFTS EWD.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE SN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS WEAK 850 MB WAVE MOVING THRU NOW...AND THEN WILL SEE
500MB FOLLOW LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...FOR THE MOST PART...THE FINAL BIT OF LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE ERN ZONES
BY 09Z. 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS HANGING BACK AND WILL CROSS THE NRN
CWA BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHSN TO THE
MTNS AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE LATER THIS MORNING INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY...MESO MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST A FEW SHSN OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN ZONES AROUND MIDDAY
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL....ALTHOUGH DON`T REALLY EXPECT ANY
ACCUMS HERE. HOWEVER IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
IN THE LOCALLY FAVORED AREAS. DESPITE ALL THE COLD THIS
YEAR...UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT HAVE BEEN QUITE LIMITED AS MOST OF THESE
500MB SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN DEEP OR CLOSED OFF TROUGHS WHICH DRAG ALL
THE ENERGY TO OUR EAST AND PULL DRY AIR IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM...LEAVING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR INSTABILITY
TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE.

ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND...AT LEAST FOR M/CDY CONDS THRU THE MORNING...BEFORE THE
WINDS KICK IN AND THE DOWNSLOPE BEGINS WHICH SHOULD CLEAR THINGS
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD WARM UP NICELY HERE AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE [PRES GRADIENT HOLDS UP THRU THE EVENING HOURS...AND THE
BREEZY CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THEY START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR S. COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN AND SHOULD SEE SOME OF THE SHELTERED DECOUPLE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS BLO
ZERO IN THE N...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABV ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY THE HIGH WILL PASS JUST TO OUR S IN THE MORNING AND
THAN SHIFT OFF SHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW
LIGHT...AND WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 20S. PRECIP WILL LKLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET...BUT A LITTLE LIGHT SN COULD BREAK OUT IN SW NH FOR
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN SHORT...A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE
GRADUALLY FLATTENS AND MOVES ONSHORE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE WE SEE LINGERING TROFINESS HERE IN THE EAST AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PUNCTUATED BY PERIODIC BRIEF WARM UPS.
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE RACING EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A QUICK OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARM
UP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DRAG
TRAILING WARM AND COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ERALY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR THRU ABOUT SUNRISE...AND
MAYBE LOWER IN FOG AT KCON...BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD IMPROVE VFR
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHIE...WHICH COULD LINGER AT
MVFR THOUGH TODAY...AND MAY GO LOWER BRIEFLY IS SHSN. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD EXPECT VFR TONIGHT AND TUE.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - WED...MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

THU...SCT MVFR IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE GALES THRU THE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AS THE PRES GRADIENT LOOKS TO HOLD A LITTLE
LONGER...ESPECIALLY E OF CASCO BAY. BUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY TUE MORNING. AS THE WINDS PICK
UP THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TEMPS DROPS THIS EVE...LOOK FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT FZ SPRAY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

THU - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




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