Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXHW60 PHFO 021430
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS COMING IN WITH THE TRADES
WILL FAVOR MOSTLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS TRADE FLOW
IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME
LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BREEZY TRADES ARE IN THE MIX FOR TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E PASSES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT, EIGHT-E WAS 343 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTH POINT BIG ISLAND AT 4 AM HST. IT IS SPEEDING AWAY TOWARD THE
WEST AT NEAR 20 MPH.

BREEZY...GUSTY CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS OAHU
OVERNIGHT...AND LANAI AS WELL WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 42
MPH. WINDY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EASING OFF LATER THIS EVENING TO MODERATE
SPEEDS. THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO WILL START
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE THE OUTER FRINGE OF
EIGHT-E/S CLOUD MASS AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE BIG ISLAND. LOW CLOUDS
WOULD TIME TO TIME SPREAD OVER TO WINDWARD MAUI ONLY TO DISSIPATE.
THE MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE IN KEEPING THE REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO MONDAY WHILE EASING OFF WINDWARD MAUI THIS
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUILLERMO MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM THE BIG ISLAND AND RATHER DRY CONDITION FOR ALL
ISLANDS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE TRADES ESPECIALLY WEST OF MAUI. SO THE
FORECAST FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TONED DOWN CONSIDERABLY
FOR TODAY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST TRACK...GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT REACHES THE ISLANDS AND
CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT CUTS THROUGH THE MAINLY THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING
THIS STRETCH.  ELEVATED SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS POSTED FOR THE N THRU E SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 08E CONTINUES TO MOVE SW OVER THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECT
CIGS/VIS TO BE LOWERED ALONG THE N THRU E SLOPES INCLUDING
PHTO...WITH PREVAILING MVFR TO POSSIBLE ISOL IFR INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN EAST
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...HOWEVER N THRU E SLOPES ON MAUI ARE LIKELY
TO SEE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA
WILL BE EXPANDED IF NEEDED.

NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED...AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL
TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY S THRU W OF MOUNTAIN RANGES REMAINS
POSTED. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY EASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXTENDED ANOTHER 12 HOURS TO
6 AM HST MONDAY. THE WIND FIELD KEEPS THE SCA WINDS INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF THE TRADES.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN THE FUTURE...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED AN ABOVE SWELL TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK
MONDAY.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 12 NOON TODAY
FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
SHOULD BE REACH THE BIG ISLAND FIRST BY TONIGHT AND SPREAD WEST TO
THE REMAINING ISLANDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE KAIWI PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...LEEWARD WATERS OF OAHU...MAALAEA BAY...AND
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...EATON










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.