Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 220630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW. A HIGH
BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 800 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 480 MILES WEST
OF LIHUE AND ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. ANA
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
AND TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATIVE OF EAST SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BUT THE BIG ISLAND IS
PARTLY BLOCKING THE FLOW...SO WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. LEEWARD CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLANDS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES INDUCED FROM TODAY/S HEATING OF THE
LAND...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS LAND
BREEZES SET IN. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE AROUND THE
STATE...THOUGH WINDWARD FOCUSED SHOWERS HAVE PICKED UP SLIGHTLY
ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THIS EVENING.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SOME SHOWERS
ASHORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT. WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
PARTLY BLOCKED BY THE BIG ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW THAN
TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM A REMNANT FRONT CLOUD BAND SLOWLY EDGES
TOWARDS THE STATE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE
SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN STRONGER NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THE HAMAKUA COAST AND
SOUTH POINT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO A BIT STRONGER WINDS DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF TERRAIN AND WIND FLOW.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUILDING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING
THE TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. THE TRADES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THAT WIND
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...
ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NE OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS
OF MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUD BUILD UPS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SMALL SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST ARRIVES THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF FROM THESE SWELLS WILL
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ACCELERATING
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND UNDER THE CURRENT SOUTHEAST FLOW COULD COME
CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIONS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON




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