Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 062021
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1000 AM HST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface ridge will remain near the islands and keep winds
gentle for the next week. The winds will be light enough to allow
afternoon sea breezes to develop and produce clouds and showers over
interior areas. Land breezes will produce partial clearing at night.
A trough aloft will linger west of Kauai through the weekend.
Showers will become more active and wintry weather will become more
likely as the trough deepens starting Wednesday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analyses show a northeast to southwest surface ridge north
of the area with a small high about 75 miles northwest of Kauai near
23N161W. This ridge will maintain gentle trade winds over the
islands through tomorrow. The winds will remain light enough for
daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to prevail through
the weekend. A north to south trough is about 1000 miles west of
Kauai. Southwest winds aloft associated with this trough are
carrying layered clouds over the Big Island and bringing fog and
drizzle to the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. We may need to
issue a Winter Weather Advisory for those developing conditions.

The trough aloft is forecast to weaken Thursday evening. As that
happens, the atmosphere may temporarily stabilize and dry out a bit.
The trough is forecast to deepen again starting Friday, and bring
another increase in moisture and instability over the weekend. The
global models suggest the trough aloft may move east of the islands
around next Tuesday, but that is too far out in time to have high
confidence in the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail at all the Hawaii terminals through Wednesday and
no AIRMETs are expected during that period. As the trough aloft digs
toward the area, clouds and showers will increase starting Wednesday
evening. MVFR conditions are likely, and AIRMET SIERRA for MTN OBSC.
AIRMET SIERRA for turbulence aloft and ZULU for icing may also be
needed.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below the advisory thresholds
for the next several days. A series of northwest swells will
continue, but surf will remain well below the High Surf Advisory
threshold.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
Donaldson



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