Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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194
FXUS66 KHNX 131105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN AND
HIGH SIERRA SNOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER TO THE CWA LATELY HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED EASTWARD
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY AND JUST A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY FOG WILL
OCCUR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AGAIN THIS MORNING AND MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...LOWER FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LOWER PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
FORECAST AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT EXITS QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE ECM WHICH OVER THE
PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN MUCH DEEPER...POTENTIALLY WETTER AND
SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE LATEST RUN IS NOW
STARTING TO TREND A LITTLE FASTER...ALTHOUGH STILL SLOWER AND
WETTER THAN THE GFS. THE ECM WOULD BRING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECM AND
HAVE SEVERAL MEMBERS THAT ARE MORE LIKE THE PREVIOUS ECM...SO
HAVE NOT BACKED OFF COMPLETELY FROM SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE FASTER MOVEMENT IS CORRECT...THE
IMPLICATIONS WOULD BE LESS PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG POSSIBLE THRU 18Z TODAY AND AGAIN AFTER 09Z SUN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-13       79:1921     43:1903     56:1987     24:1949
KFAT 02-14       79:1924     46:1903     55:1986     25:1949
KFAT 02-15       79:1977     49:1990     58:1902     24:1990

KBFL 02-13       83:1924     49:1949     55:1986     25:1908
KBFL 02-14       78:2014     47:1990     55:1986     21:1903
KBFL 02-15       84:1977     50:1911     56:1982     21:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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