Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 201015
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS
NORTHERN BAJA THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER OVER PT CONCEPTION CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT. CONVECTION FIRED UP ACROSS THE SIERRA YESTERDAY AND
BROUGHT IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE VALLEY AS EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LOW AS IT MOVED SOUTH. TEMPS WERE DOWN A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY DUE TO MORNING CLOUDS AND THEN
AGAIN CLOUDS RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THE GUIDANCE IS MOVING THE LOW INTO AZ BY
THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTION IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
AREA...MANLY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTER WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY AND WILL
CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO MONTANA AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH CENCAL EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK AND DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT AFTER 19Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY AUGUST 20 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
MADERA COUNTY.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-20      108:1919     76:1959     75:1986     54:1974
KFAT 08-21      108:1919     80:1968     76:1913     51:1959
KFAT 08-22      108:1897     81:1960     75:1995     50:1899

KBFL 08-20      112:1950     77:1959     79:1950     52:1912
KBFL 08-21      110:1919     80:1968     77:1982     51:1918
KBFL 08-22      109:1919     82:1983     78:2009     44:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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