Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 190450
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
950 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...A MORE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY USHERING IN MUCH COOLER...BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA.
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PASSES
TUESDAY WITH BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KERN COUNTY.
QUIETER AND WARMING WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE WILL SEE
RENEWED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT QUITE AS JUICY AS EARLIER TODAY...AND QUITE A BIT LESS
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AS WELL. NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19Z SATURDAY AND 03Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 455 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2345Z /1645 PDT/...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL
PARK SOUTH TO THE TULARE/KERN COUNTY LINE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL UP TO HALF INCH IN DIAMETER. BOTH RADAR AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
INDICATE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN RATES ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING HAD BEEN
REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-TO-CLOUD LIGHTNING
SPREADING WESTWARD OVER THE TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND DEBRIS
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. LIGHTNING ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIUTES AND ALONG
THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE SIERRA NEVADA NEAR CACHE CREEK.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EAST SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941
KFAT 04-19       93:2009     54:1967     64:1938     35:1955
KFAT 04-20       96:2009     53:1957     62:1989     36:1896

KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
KBFL 04-19       98:1910     54:1967     62:1938     38:1996
KBFL 04-20       98:1906     59:2007     64:1939     36:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







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