Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 032103
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
203 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FETCH OF TROPCIAL MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HAS
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE BREAKS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE CA COAST
NEAR 33N/126W. A DRY SLOT PUSHED INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. AS A RESULT OF THE ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL READING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. WV/IR PICKING UP ON SOME UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL CA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS...THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO TO DRIFT FROM THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.

12Z WRF INDICATING THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD. RH PROGS INDICATING
DRIER AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS WELL WHICH WILL IN
TURN SHUT OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND PROGGED
INSTABILITY WILL WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
CLOSE TO TODAY.

WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO BECOME CENTERED NEAR 130W BY SUNDAY
AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ON MONDAY...DECREASED HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A DRYING
TREND TO OUR AREA AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LOWER TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR AND ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE OFFSHORE LOW MOVING SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE CA COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN CROSSING
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY NEXT FRIDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
RH PROGS ARE INDICATING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW....AND
WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

.AVIATION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST UNTIL 06Z
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA
NEVADA...KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT...AND NEAR KBFL IN THE
SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SATURDAY JULY 4 2015...UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA AND TULARE
COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901
KFAT 07-04      112:1889     79:1955     81:2001     51:1951
KFAT 07-05      112:1991     77:1909     77:1991     52:1948

KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
KBFL 07-04      114:1931     82:1955     81:2001     49:1913
KBFL 07-05      114:1931     80:1961     81:1970     53:1948
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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