Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 282321 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
421 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE CWA COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IT IS ONE SURE
SIGN THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THAT MEANS WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME EVEN HOTTER
IN MOST LOCALES...EASILY TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK IN THE SJ VLY
AND LOWER FOOTHILLS.

IN THE MEANTIME...AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN OUR DIRECTION. ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE
MARKED INITIALLY BY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM...FIRST OVER THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF KERN COUNTY AND TULARE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARD...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INITIALLY THE
MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES WILL BE HIGH BASED SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING MAY
NOT BRING RAIN BUT RATHER DRY LIGHTNING. A SOMEWHAT DEEPER INFLUX
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
TIP THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WET SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. HOWEVER...THIS PARTICULAR INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL BE NOTHING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE MUCH LOWER IN COMPARISON.

THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS ALOFT TO BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
SATURDAY WITH FURTHER BACKING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION LATER
THIS WEEKEND. IF SO...THIS WILL DRIVE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUT OF
CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY AND DIMINISH THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL OVER THE CWA ON DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL AVERAGE WARMER THAN
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR HOTTEST DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CURBED BY INCREASED CLOUDINESS LATER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL COME AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND
WARMER MINIMUM TEMPS. IN THE URBAN AREAS SUCH AS FRESNO AND BFL...
MIN TEMP RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975

KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     82:1965     82:2014     48:1914
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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