Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KHNX 011015
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. A NORTHWESTWARD
SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING AN INCREASED
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING THE SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL AND A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES OVER CENTRAL CA. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST TODAY WITH A REPEAT OCCURRENCE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY THEN...WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BACK
AROUND TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THAT MEANS ANY MID AND HIGH
LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CAN BE ADVECTED
NORTHWESTWARD. INDEED...THE MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA AND
FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...
THETA E...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...ISOLATED
TSTMS COULD ERUPT OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THAT
THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF KERN COUNTY. WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH THEM AS SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT COULD BRING ANY
ONE OF THESE TSTMS INTO THE SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SJ VLY WILL ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO NORTHWESTWARD MOVING TSTMS LATER
THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THE SJ VLY IN THE TSTM THREAT LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

THE GFS AND ECM FORECAST WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AGAIN ON MONDAY AND SO OUR WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD TRANSITION BACK
TO A QUIETER ONE AGAIN BY THEN. THE MODELS FORECAST A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SO
THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES CONFINED TO THE SIERRA
CREST EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL DOMINATE
THE PATTERN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THRU DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST FROM 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY AUGUST 1 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:1901     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.