Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 292329
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
729 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PREVAIL THIS
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MORE MOISTURE LADEN AREAS NEAR SOUTHPORT AND ALONG THE BLACK RIVER
ON THE BORDER OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A LINE FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO
EAST OF WHITEVILLE. THUS THE AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE MAY SEE A
THUNDERSTORM. ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL CEASE TO
EXIST AFTER SUNSET. A VERY QUITE NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60 WELL INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES TUE/WED IS A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH A HIKE-UP IN RAIN CHANCES
LATE TUE AND WED AS A SHORT-WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS
AND FORCES A LEE SIDE TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST OF NE SC AND SE NC.
AN ISOLATED SHOT AT CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A
MID- LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL NOT ERODE UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z...SQUASHING
RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EARLY GOING...UNTIL
COLUMN WETTING ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AT ILM
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY AROUND THE 5TH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD
BY THE CLOSE OF TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY END UP BEING OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD
FROM A RATHER NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO A LESS
ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. FLATTER FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS THOUGH A DRY AFTERNOON
IS TOUGH TO FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND SEA BREEZE. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION BY DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY SLOW RISE THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH ON TUESDAY.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
VFR PREVAILS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASING TO AOB 5 KTS AND
FEW/SCT CIRRUS. WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY
LIGHT FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS WHICH COULD
CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR VCSH...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED INTO GOING
FORECAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER OFF SHORE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP
TUE/WED AS AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS AND INTERACTS WITH
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS 10-20
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET AND PERHAPS NEAR 5 FT
OUTER PORTIONS. SEAS A COMPOSITE OF SW WAVES 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KT
LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE PERIOD AS WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH SHOW LITTLE VARIATION. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4
FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT FETCH THE OCCASIONAL
5 FT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE OUTERMOST SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ZONES NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL



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