Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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854
FXUS62 KILM 271913
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
313 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm late summer conditions will prevail through the weekend. The
chance of showers will increase as well, as moisture from the
tropics moves across the area early next week. A strong cold
front is expected to move across the region late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...Analysis of todays sounding data and latest
guidance shows convection will be limited today due to very dry air
and weak lapse rates aloft, a marginally unstable column and strong
upper ridging. Expecting only isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms into this evening as a result, mainly away from
the coast, with no severe weather likely. This activity will move
ahead of a slowly advancing and weak cold front which is the only
substantial trigger we will see today for convection.

For tonight, surface high pressure to the north will continue to
push the aforementioned cold front south towards the forecast area
as it further weakens and dissipates. There will be little to no
impact from this feature overnight, with no weather and only a
subtle wind shift to the NE assuming the front makes it this far
south. Guidance assumes that it will, with some post frontal stratus
in the early morning hours. Model consensus gives us minimum
temperatures in the mid 70s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...The remnants of long-dead Fiona, now
manifesting itself as a loosely organized low with some tropical
features, is forecast to drift slowly west towards the local area
through the period as either a tropical-like wave or a weak low
pressure system. Due to the weakness of this feature, its slow
westward movement and poor prospects for development it is expected
that there will be little to no impact on the local area during the
short term. We will see a gradual return of deep moisture through
the period and improved chances for mainly diurnal convection.
Sunday looks to be the better day for rain chances as subsidence and
dry air to the west of the aforementioned system will help suppress
convection. Daytime temperatures will be seasonal or even a little
below depending upon extent of cloud cover. Nighttime temperatures
will remain a bit above normal with dewpoints remaining elevated in
the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...Uncertainty is the theme for the extended
as several components namely tropical or possible tropical
entities are poised to affect the area. First, the moisture and
system moving across the Caribbean may shift to the north and west
and link up with yet another system, the remants of Fiona which
are forecast to move due east with possible redevelopment. A mid
level low churning off the southeast coast will be modulating the
moisture for the most part. Usually with systems similar to these,
the moisture remains mostly confined to the eastern half of the
system as continental air is just too much to overcome with weak
advection. Overall the strategy of chance to isolated pops for
Tuesday and Wednesday looks good with higher values along the
coast.

The end of the period is suddenly looking a bit messy as well. The
mid level trough that pushes a front through the area Friday and
Saturday looks somewhat weaker and mid level drying remains to the
north. I have incrementally increased pops and cloud cover to
address.

Temperature forecast is at the mercy of the moisture and is low
confidence as well but didn`t make wholesale changes from the
previous package.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through tonight other than some
potential short duration vsby restrictions in tstms inland this
evening. Stratus is possible overnight.

A weak back door type cold front is slowly shifting southward this
aftn, and will weaken as it drops across the CWA tonight. This front
is the driver for some showers/tstms to the north, and as it pushes
southward a few of these are expected to approach the inland
terminals. Have included VCTS, but not enough confidence in coverage
or timing for a TEMPO or any restrictions attm. Coastal terminals
are expected to remain dry today. Winds through the evening will be
generally from the E/SE around 10 kts.

As the front pushes across the area tonight, winds will return to
the NE at around 5 kts, with subtle increase late in the overnight
possible. This will likely prevent much in the way of fog, but
soundings suggest stratus is possible, mostly likely at LBT, which
is more typical with a setup like this. Some fog is possible at FLO
where the front will be slow to drop through. Any stratus will lift
after daybreak Sunday with VFR returning under continued light NE
winds.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Increasing chance of TEMPO sub VFR each day as
tropical moisture/shower potential increases through Tuesday. VFR
Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...High pressure to the north will push down
a weak and dissipating front south towards the waters overnight.
There will be little to no impact from this feature, with no
weather and a negligible wind shift. We can expect gradually
increasing long-period swell from distant tropical systems, but
seas will overall remain in their present 3 to 4 ft range. East
winds will maintain at around 10 kts or so through the period.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...The remnants of long-dead Fiona,
now manifesting itself as a loosely organized low with some
tropical features, is forecast to drift slowly west towards the
waters through the period as either a tropical-like wave or a weak
low pressure system. Due to the weakness of this feature, its slow
westward movement and poor prospects for development it is
expected that there will be little impact upon the local waters.
Expect NE to E winds in the 10 to 15 kt range through the short
term. Seas will stay mainly in the 3 or 4 ft range, although some
5 footers over our outer waters are possible due to the
contribution of swell energy from distant yet slowly strengthening
TS Gaston.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...With all that may be going on the winds
will be somewhat benign. For Tuesday and into early Wednesday
winds will be mostly from the northeast and ten knots or less. A
weak pattern later Wednesday will be followed by a possible
frontal passage Thursday with a shift to northwest winds. Not much
in the way of CAA with the front so speeds remain ten knots or
less. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet but longer period swell
may continue to warrant some rip current hazards.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW
MARINE...REK/SHK



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