Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 261005
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
605 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today and persist into
the weekend, bringing dry weather and increasing heat. A cold
front will reach into the Carolinas early next week, moving off
shore by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...Progressive flow aloft this morning will
gradually transition to weak ridging as 5h ridge over the Gulf
of Mexico expands north. Ridge remains somewhat flat through the
period but will cause flow aloft to transition from deep
westerly flow to northwest flow by evening. Downslope flow and
subsidence at the top of the expanding 5h ridge and in the wake
of the exiting 5h trough will keep the region dry and mostly
free of clouds through the period. Meanwhile, at the surface,
high pressure centered over the Florida peninsula will expand
north. This will maintain low level westerly flow. Forecast
soundings do show some higher wind speeds at the top of the
mixed layer which could surface during peak heating. Do not
expect a lot of gusts but an occasional gust of 20 to 25 mph is
possible. Downslope flow combined with sunny skies will produce
highs 3 to 6 degrees above climo today, mid 80s. Deep westerly
nature of the wind field will keep sea breeze pinned close to
the coast. Lows will also run 3 to 6 degrees above climo, mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...Warm SWly flow around the backside of a
ridge over the western Atlantic will keep temperatures summer-
like over the Memorial Day Weekend. Temperatures will peak at
right around 90 both days, with lower to mid 70s at night. A dry
Saturday may be followed by isolated to scattered convection on
Sunday as a cold front drops south towards the area, with
moisture and convective indices also becoming more favorable for
activity. A consensus of guidance has the front just north of
the CWA by daybreak on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...The weather will becoming increasingly
unsettled through the latter half of Memorial Day weekend. We
will basically remain under the grips of high pressure to our
south on Sunday with a warm and moist SW return flow. Aloft, the
winds will be more westerly atop a ridge extending up form the
Gulf of Mexico. Initially on Sunday, the ridge builds north with
increasing subsidence and dry air aloft into the early
afternoon, but the ridge flattens out as mid to upper trough
digs down from the upper great lakes. This will push cold front
closer to the area. There will be a general increasing potential
for clouds and showers/tstms late Sun through mid week ahead of
this slow moving front. It looks like the most widespread
convection will come on Mon into Tues as the front gets a push
south and east into and through the forecast area. Expect the
surface front to make it just south by Wed, but it remains
aligned SW to NE near or just south of area as a broad upper
trough remains over the eastern CONUS. This front looks like it
will remain close enough to produce unsettled weather over at
least coastal portions of the forecast area through the
remainder of the work week. Overall convection should be more
localized Sun into Mon and become more widespread late Mon into
Tues with a possible break on Wed as front moves south with
continued convection mainly along the coast or south on Thurs.

Mid level heights will continue to rise through Sun with GFS
showing peak Sun aftn but remaining high through Mon. This will
maintain very warm temps both Sun and Mon, crossing into the 90s
most places. Max Temps will run in the 80s through the rest of
the period dampened by clouds, and the moist air mass will keep
overnight lows up around 70 most nights in a more summerlike air
mass with a slight cooling as front passes through Tues night
into Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 12Z Friday...High confidence VFR all terminals through
the TAF valid period. Westerly winds will occasionally gust as
high as 20 kt this afternoon.

Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions possible in scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...Small craft advisory continues for the
next few hours. Seas near 20 nm still running around 6 ft but
continued offshore flow should drop seas within 20 nm down to 5
ft or less by 6 AM EDT. Westerly winds today will slowly back to
southwest this evening and overnight as surface high centered
south of the area gradually shifts east. Although gradient
weakens throughout the day speeds will be slow to fall below 15
kt as daytime heating leads to a slight increase in winds this
afternoon. Seas follow a downward trend through the period
ending up 2 to 3 ft by Sat morning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...High pressure over the western Atlantic
will keep up a steady SW flow of 10 to 15 kts through the
weekend. Afternoon winds near shore will gust up to around 20
kts as the diurnal sea breeze circulation sets up. Seas will run
within a foot of 3 feet through the period. Some showers and
thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Sunday night as a front
drops down from the north.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure to the south will
maintain a SW return flow 10 to 15 mph through much of the
period. Seas will remain between 2 and 4 ft through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK
MARINE...REK/III/RGZ



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