Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 161737
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1237 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the Carolinas through today. A
warming trend will occur Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front
which will drop south through the Carolinas late Wednesday. Cooler
and drier high pressure will follow on Thursday. Low pressure
moving up from the Gulf coast will drag a warm front through the area
on Friday. High pressure will build in on Saturday before another
system brings unsettled weather for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Monday...A gray for most of the area as high pressure
noses in from points north behind a backdoor boundary. 12Z area
ROABS show impressive inversions associated with the wedge. The
depth of the cool air extends to about 2kft at CHS but just over
5kft at MHX. Should cloudiness hang tough over our southern zones
our forecast may need to be refined-but the dry air above the sfc
based inversion at CHS gives hope that some breaks of sun are
possible. The diurnal curve is pretty flat however and forecast has
been adjusted accordingly. For this reason will carry fog in wx
grids for a few extra hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...The warm front should be moving N of the area
Tue morning. Warm air advection ahead of a cold front should allow
for much more in the way of sunshine compared to the first two days
of the week. A SW flow will help bring highs into the upper 60s and
lower 70s Tue. We will still be in the warm air on Wed, but the
column will be moistening up and will include mention of scattered
showers that day. However, there is westerly flow through a deep
layer and will confine POPs to chance at this time. A back door cold
front should move across the Carolinas Wed night.

Highest temps of the week should occur on Wed with widespread lower
70s. Coolest temps of the period will occur behind the cold front
Wed night, upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Ridge will build and move over the
southeast and east coast Thurs into Fri. As the ridge axis
shifts east by late Thurs the winds in the mid to upper levels
will shift to the SW allowing fro some upper level moisture to
spread into the Carolinas, but the column will start out very
dry early Thurs. Therefore expect some passing clouds Thurs
night into Fri but overall quiet weather to start the long term
with a relatively cooler air mass in place and plenty of
sunshine on Thurs.

By Fri, clouds will increase and so will chance of pcp as low
pressure lifts north up the Mississippi Valley with a warm front
moving through leaving a deep southerly flow of warm and moist
air through Fri into the weekend. The greatest QPF should lie to
the west of local forecast area through the morning hours with
pcp tapering off through the afternoon hours as system lifts
farther north. Winds will shift to the W-SW overnight Fri
leaving drier conditions as weak high pressure moves on
Saturday, but it looks like another system will follow spreading
more clouds and rain into the area for the latter half of the
weekend into early next week. Temps will stay on the warm side,
remaining well above normal through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...Cold front sagged back to the south overnight, and
wedge of high pressure currently exists down the Carolinas. The
front appears to be easily identifiable on satellite at the
sharp demarcation between clear and stratus, but the terminals
will remain socked into stratus today and tonight. While
terminals closer to the front, mainly FLO, will remain IFR all
day, the other sites should break into MVFR as slightly drier
air advects down from the NE on winds of 5-10 kts. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived, with IFR and LIFR
re-developing in stratus overnight. With little change in the
pattern through Tuesday, stratus is again expected to persist
well into Tuesday before slowly eroding late as winds become
more W/SW Tuesday aftn.

Extended Outlook...Cold front Wednesday, accompanied with
showers and MVFR. Showers possible Friday. Otherwise expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Monday...NE flow will dominate as high pressure
ridges south across the waters today. A front stalled to our S
will move back across the waters tonight and Tue morning. Winds
will veer to SE late tonight and to SW Tue morning. Wind speeds
are not expected to exceed 10 to 15 kt through the period,
strongest today. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft today, subsiding to 1 to
2 ft by later tonight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A warm front will be moving N of the waters
Tue morning. SSW to SW winds will become SW and increase ahead of a
backdoor cold front which will move across the waters Wed eve.
Winds will shift to the N with frontal passage. The strongest
winds this period will be up to 15 to 20 kt Wed and through the
first part of Wed night. Seas of 2 ft or less Tue will build to
2 to 3 ft by Wed morning with some 4 to 5 ft seas Wed and Wed
night. We will be watching for the development of sea stratus
and sea fog as higher dewpoints move back across the waters
during the period. At this time, we have patchy fog in the
forecast for Tue night into Wed.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Weak high pressure will build in behind
departing cold front on Thurs. Expect a deeper N to NW flow
behind it but on the weak side. Therefore expect seas to lower
through Thurs down less than 3 ft by Fri morning. Light and
variable winds early Friday will become on shore and eventually
southerly as low pressure lifting up through the Mississippi
Valley pulls a warm front through the Carolinas. This southerly
push will bring seas up to 3 to 4 ft most waters late Friday
into early Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RJD/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD/RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW
MARINE...


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