Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 301856
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PLEASANTLY MILD EVENING YIELDING TO A TYPICAL LATE
SEPTEMBER NIGHT. A BIT OF A BREEZE LEADING UP TO SUNSET ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE WELL
OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER SUNSET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP A SURFACE-BASED COOLING LAYER THAT WILL INHIBIT MIXING
AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF. A CONTINUATION OF THE LESSENING OF WIND
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME CALM WINDS INLAND DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MUCH MORE
MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD
OR DENSE FOG NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY...THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME FAIR WEATHER CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY VEERING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK RESULTANT. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING
CALM WITH A MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. LBT AND FLO STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT THE COAST. ANY FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY...14Z AT THE LATEST
WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...NORTHEAST FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR SAT AND
SUN WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL PINCH IN THE GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFF THE COAST. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY DROP TO JUST
10KT TOWARDS ITS END. AS SUCH ANY 4 FT WAVES SHOULD DROP OFF AND
SEAS WILL TEND TO BE CAPPED AT 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL



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