Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 300807
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
407 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT.
SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA...WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT DRYING THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING
AND COOLING AIR TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...WILL
PROMOTE MIST AND STRATUS OVER NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH DAYBREAK.
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRENGTHENING
LATE APRIL SUN...AND ALSO THAT UPSTREAM CIRRUS CONTINUES A
THINNING TREND.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PROMPT
CONVECTION OVER OUR INTERIOR FROM INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTY ACROSS
NE SC...EXTENDING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE AIDED BY A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. COLUMN MOISTURE IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY ALOFT BUT THIS COULD
IN TURN HELP CONVECTION ENTRAIN DRY AIR TO BRING AN ELEVATED GUST
POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAN AN AXIS OF 0-1KM ENERGY
HELICITY INDICES IMPINGE OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PEAK HEATING. A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR ROTATING SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM FLORENCE TO HARTSVILLE TO DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION.

MAX TEMPS MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S INTERIOR NE SC...WITH MINS AT
DAYBREAK SUNDAY LOWS/MID 60S SE NC AND UPPER 60S NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN WEATHER CAPTION IN INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS COLUMN MOISTURE RAMPS UP SUNDAY. A BOUNDARY N AND W OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MAY SEE STORM AND SHOWER INITIATION WHILE THE
STEERING FLOW POTENTIALLY GUIDES SOME OF THE CONVECTION INTO SE NC
AND NE SC. THE DAYTIME WARMING WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE COAST INLAND. BECAUSE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...SPC HAS HELD ONTO A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SE NC AND PARTS OF NE SC. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S COAST AND
LOW 80S INLAND.

ELEVATED COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY WITH BRIEF MID
LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HEATING AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY
IN PROXIMITY TO SE NC WILL AGAIN PROMPT A CHANCE AT A MARGINALLY
STRONG TSTM. MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY WILL
FATTEN LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ABOUT
THE AREA WE SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
POTENT SYSTEM AND THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN GOOD RAINFALL WITH
THESE WEAKER SYSTEMS RECENTLY. BY THURSDAY A FULL BLOWN OMEGA
PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE GETTING A GOOD PUSH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS EARLY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE A CHANCE FOR STRATUS/FOG
OVERNIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DEBRIS CIRRUS MOVING OVER
THE REGION FROM A LARGE MCS. IF THE CIRRUS BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH
IT COULD HINDER FOG FORMATION. MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH KEEPING NORTHERN TERMINALS
IN A MVFR STRATOCU CEILING...POSSIBLY IFR 10Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND
01Z ONWARD TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY BUT LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE
CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SURGE OF NE-E WIND WORKS DOWN THE COAST
THIS MORNING...GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY BE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY TODAY.
SEAS OF 2-3 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT BEFORE EVENING IN
THE MODERATE ONSHORE WIND. WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND TO SE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY HELPING TO MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEA HEIGHTS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN MARINE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IN THIS WARM FLOW
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...A RADAR UPDATE
IS A SMART IDEA BEFORE VENTURING OUT. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 3-4 FT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT OUTER WATERS LATE MONDAY
BRIEFLY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED.
OVERALL EXPECT A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS STRUGGLING TO
ECLIPSE TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN MUTED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/DL


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