Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 060242
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
942 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY AND
QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST WITH WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW MIXING IN...MAINLY INLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

COLD ADVECTION IS ENDING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL BUT SHOULD CONTINUE
AT 925 MB UNTIL MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR IS FINALLY ARRIVING AT THE
COAST WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER
MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSISSIPPI MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE
PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS THE WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MORNING 4-INCH SOIL TEMP IN
CADES SC WAS 53 AND IT`S CURRENTLY 56 HERE IN WILMINGTON. THAT HEAT
SHOULD BLEED OUT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS INDICATES. MY FORECAST LOWS
ARE IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL START OFF THE
WEEKEND BUT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OFF
SHORE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME SNOW.

SATURDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY AND COOL WITH TEMPS INCREASING UP
CLOSE TO 50. EXPECT CLOUDS INCREASING LATE DAY INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS THROUGH THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROUGH
DEEPENS ALOFT AS IT DIGS DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES BRINGING MOISTURE
ALOFT AND THEN RECEIVES ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND CAA IN E-NE FLOW AS
LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DEEP FEED OF MOISTURE.
LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE AND SOUNDING PROFILES BECOME NEARLY SATURATED
ABOVE 3K FT FT BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER
ALONG THE COAST DOWN TO 1500 FT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO PRODUCE SNOW. ALONG THE COAST THE WARM NOSE
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE TOO DEEP AND WARM...FROM 1500FT TO 5KFT AND UP
TO AROUND 4C BUT IT DOES DECREASE AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THROUGH
SUN MORNING. INLAND SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
ABOVE 2500 FT REMAINING AT OR BELOW 0C. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME AREAS
WILL SEE SNOW WITH BEST CHC INLAND BUT THE BACK EDGE OF MOISTURE
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST WEST OF CWA DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH
AND REACHING UP TO NEAR .85 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE THERE
WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN PCP AND NO PCP. THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY LOOKED BEST EARLY MORNING SUNDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT MOISTURE AND END PCP LATER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST WITH QPF UP OVER AN INCH IN
PLACES. THIS COULD INTRODUCE SOME FLOODING ISSUES WITH SUCH
SATURATED GROUNDS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL.  AS FOR SNOW...WITH
INCLUDE RAIN AND SNOW MIX WITH UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING...MAINLY ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW MIX ALTHOUGH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT
THE SFC...WITH SUCH A DEEP SYSTEM THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PCP COULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS TEMPS COOL RAPIDLY IN PLACES WITH VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS IN PLACE.

WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF SHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND MUCH STRONGER OFF
SHORE.

TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL SAT NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST PLACES. AS PCP BEGINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTH...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL
BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING IN PLACES...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT
DEWPOINT TEMPS BELOW FREEZING INLAND.

THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST
FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A RETURN TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER
DEVELOPS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REINFORCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK...REACHING -3 TO -4 SD`S FROM NORMAL. THIS IN
ITSELF IS A SIGNAL FOR VERY COLD AIR LOCALLY...BUT IS ACCENTUATED BY
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND A REINFORCING SHOT OF VORT ENERGY/COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CRASH FROM ABOUT 0C TO -10C DURING
TUESDAY...THEN REMAIN THERE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SLOWLY FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE
GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP MINS
FROM FALLING TO EXTREMELY COLD VALUES...HIGHS AND LOWS TUE/WED/THU
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND APPARENT TEMPS DUE TO WIND CHILLS
TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT COULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR...FALLING
INTO THE TEENS. BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND MOVING
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION THIS PERIOD INVOLVES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE POTENT VORT AND COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S DURING PRECIP...SOME SIGNALS POINT TOWARDS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONG LIFT DUE TO PVA AND A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SUGGEST PRECIP WILL ORIGINATE AS ICE BEFORE MELTING ON THE WAY
DOWN. HOWEVER...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG OMEGA CORRELATED WITH
DECREASING THETAE WITH HEIGHT IN A REGION OF HIGH RH. THIS COULD
DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND NOTE THAT ABOUT
1/5 OF GFS ENSEMBLES PRODUCE SNOW LOCALLY. LOCAL TOP DOWN DID
PRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT HAVE KEPT ALL PRECIP AS -RW /RAIN
SHOWERS/ FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND TO ELIMINATE CONFUSION WITH
THE POSSIBLE SNOW ON SUNDAY.&&

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM BY 03Z. ON SATURDAY
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BEGIN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CLOUDS WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OR BEGIN
TO FORM OVER THE REGION AS SOME GOOD DYNAMICS BEGIN. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN OR POSSIBLE SNOW SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO IFR. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. PREDOMINATELY VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
TIME...LEADING TO SLOWLY DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA WATERS...BUT SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW THE REQUISITE 6 FEET
EVEN OUT AT 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE LATER THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHEAST WINDS OF
15-20 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
EXPECT AN INCREASE INTO 20-25 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND
DEEPENS RAPIDLY. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NORTHERN 2 MARINE
ZONES AND EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS ESPECIALLY IN OUTER
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE FROM
2 TO 4 FT EARLY SATURDAY...REACHING INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY SAT
NIGHT NEAR MIDNIGHT AND MAY PEAK AS HIGH AS 12 FT IN OUTER WATERS
BY SUNDAY EVENING AS LOW RIDES BY TO OUR EAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH 15-20
KTS MONDAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AT 20-25 KTS
BEHIND FROPA. THESE WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST
AT 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A
PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK...THE
STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS WILL STILL DRIVE SEAS UP FROM 3-5 FT EARLY
MONDAY TO 4-8 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEAS MAY BEGIN TO EASE VERY
LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE RAISED FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW/RGZ


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