Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 190609

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
109 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

A warm front will approach the region from the southwest
tonight. It will then lift northeast across the area on Monday.
Much of the region will dry out for Monday night into Tuesday
as frontal boundaries remain to the north and west. Unseasonably
warm air will bring the potential for record temperatures on


Temperatures have fallen off into the mid 30s to lower 40s
across the region. This should be close to the min temperature
for tonight. Expect temps to begin to creep up overnight.

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower as the night
progresses. Still expect rain to develop late tonight as two
areas of upper level energy come together. Latest runs of the
mesoscale models are suggesting that development might be
delayed by an hour or so adjusted accordingly.


On Monday, the warm front is forecast to lift north across the
region, being located across the southern Great Lakes by
evening. Again, showers (isolated thunder) will be most
widespread along and north of I-70 during the morning, with
decreasing chances as one moves south. By afternoon, much of
the precipitation will have lifted into northern Ohio. Total
rainfall amounts will range from a half inch to and inch along
and north of I-70, with a tenth to one half inch elsewhere.
This should not pose a need for an areal flood watch. Under an
increasing southerly flow, locally gusty, temperatures will warm
into the lower 60s north to near 70 along and south of the Ohio
River. These values are well above normal by about 25 degrees.
However, it appears records at the three major airports should
be safe.

For Monday night, much of the region will be in the wake of the
warm front and warm sectored. Some spotty shower activity in a
moist southwest plume aloft will prompt to keep at least a
chance of showers going for the far northwest. Overnight lows
will also be unseasonably warm, ranging from the upper 50s to
the lower 60s. These values will be some 30 to 35 degrees above
normal. Given predicted warmth on Tuesday, it looks like record
low maximums for February 20th (Tuesday) are going to be broken.


An unseasonably warm forecast with a very moist airmass and periods
of rain will remain the general consensus over the Ohio Valley
through the period. Record warm temperatures are expected through
Tuesday night. While daytime records are forecast to be broken,
they`re still within 3-5 degrees of the records and not a sure bet.
Overnight lows are forecast 10 deg warmer Mon night/Tues morning and
3-9 deg warmer Tues night, and much more likely to be set.

A front will be found northwest of the area through early Wednesday
and then work through the region with an early high in the southeast
and falling temperatures for the rest of the area during the day.
This will bring the coldest temperatures of the period Wed night
through Thurs night - still 10 deg warmer than normal on overnight
lows and 5 deg warmer on highs.

Southwest flow then sets back up for the latter part of the forecast
and brings a return of unseasonably mild temperatures and increased
threats of rain.

Regarding rainfall, a prolonged period of steady and sometimes
moderate rain will occur with the frontal passage Tues night through
Wed night. Have indicated moderate rainfall where pops were likely
and higher, and also put in a chance of thunder for the same area
through Tuesday night. Not to say that thunder won`t be possible on
Wednesday, but the zonal upper flow and lack of defined shortwaves
in the flow this far out had me leave this out beyond then.

Likewise with the second threat for rain on Friday and beyond,
models disagreed significantly enough with placement, timing, and
upper level features to have me top out the max chance of rain at
the chance category, though it will likely occur at times.


VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. Low level wind
shear will be possible overnight. Lower CIGS will move into the
region overnight and into the day on Monday with a warm frontal
boundary. An area of showers and potentially isolated
thunderstorms will move into the TAF sites Monday morning. This
main area of precipitation will lift northwards by late morning.
A few showers will remain for the afternoon, but primarily dry
conditions will be present. Cannot rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, but probability was too low to include at this
time. Winds will pick up for the afternoon and early evening
hours with wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities to return Tuesday
night into Wednesday night. MVFR conditions possible at times
Thursday and Friday.




SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Novak is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.