Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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194
FXUS61 KILN 050531
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
131 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BRINGING A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA...BUT WE/LL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND...AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

BASED ON RADAR...INITIALLY THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA BUT WITH WRAP AROUND
FROM THE UPPER LOW EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA...THE MIAMI VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW AND A LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAYING OUT OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL KEEP A
CLOUDY AND COOL AIRMASS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CURVE
CYCLONICALLY AND WRAP FROM EASTERN OHIO THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AS
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH KENTUCKY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE
LIFTING MECHANISM OF THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW-SE LATER THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE A REBOUND OUT OF THE UPPER 50S/60S ON
FRIDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AS BUILDING
HEIGHTS TAKE PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S
TONIGHT AND MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE WARMING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL FIND THE REGION IN A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN...WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING EXITED TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER
LARGER CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS LOW
DROPS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS OHIO...AS WELL AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP TO PUSH
ACROSS ILN...GENERALLY STARTING IN THE NW CWA IN THE
MORNING...EXPANDING THROUGH 18Z...AND COVERING THE MUCH OF THE CWA
BY 0Z SUNDAY. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS OF
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH KY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH PRECIP FINALLY COMING TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING /EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER/ AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM BEHIND. THIS
AIR WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER...WITH STRONG NRLY FLOW RESULTING IN
GOOD CAA. WHILE SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S...CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SUNDAY.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE
IN THE DAY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH POPS BACK
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS ILN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST AND PRECIP
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OHIO FASTER. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...BEST
PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL LIKELY STICK TO A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS
PERIOD. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT THE RETURN OF WAA...WITH
LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE /OR CLOSED
LOW ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE INCOMING
BOUNDARY...STRONG WAA IN PLACE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE OFF OF THE
GULF COAST...COULD WILL BE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING MUCH OF ILN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. BEST
COVERAGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS CLOSER FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW IS DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ATTM. WRN EDGE
OF PCPN WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS BRUSHING BY CVG/LUK SO
HAVE A VCSH FOR THOSE TWO LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AS THE LOW TRAVELS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER.
EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 09Z. CIGS WILL
RECOVER TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE...THEN RISE TO VFR BY AFTN. BY THEN THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHRA AROUND AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN PASSES THRU
THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME MIXING.

CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SITES



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