Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 291747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY BEFORE
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO GUST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOOKING
AT MODEL SOUNDINGS GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH LOOK LIKELY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WERE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED THIS THINKING WITH STRONG WAA.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING. WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAIN SO WILL NUDGE
POPS UP INTO THE LOW CATEGORICAL CATEGORY FOR THIS EVENING. AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN ALL RAIN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODERATE...EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
MODELS HAVE PERHAPS TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WITH
THIS FEATURE...KEEPING OUR FA MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...WITH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAY4 /WED/ BEFORE CONFIDENCE UNRAVELS
RATHER QUICKLY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK - WHICH IS A BIT
UNSETTLING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WX
EITHER THURS OR FRI...OR BOTH.

WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL
LIKELY TEMPER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL HELP US BACK INTO THE 50S /NORTH/ AND 60S /SOUTH/ BY DAYS END
AS FLOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TURN AROUND BY WED EVENING. THIS
DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
MT/ND AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS SHUNTED EAST. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER
THREAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...BUT NOT AN OVERLY GOOD
SIGNAL AS FORCING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED TO POINT TO BETTER CHANCES
FOR THURS.

GETS INTERESTING THU/FRI...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AS IT
SLIDES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES WILL TELL HOW FAR SOUTH
FRONT PUSHES. MAY BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR A STRONG/SVR STORM THUR
IF A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OCCURS /GFS/...BUT DEAMPLIFYING NATURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SLOWING FRONT...OR POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BE
SPREADING IN EARLY THUR LIMITING HEATING COULD BE FACTOR - EITHER
WAY - WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY - AND LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING FRONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THUR EVENING.
DID ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY THUR AHEAD OF FRONT ON GOOD LOW LEVEL
WAA SIGNAL /60S AND 70S/.

ADMITTEDLY THERE IS MORE INTEREST/CONCERN FOR FRI ALBEIT AT THIS
TIME RANGE THERE ARE HUGE INCONSISTENCIES AND VARIABILITIES THAT
WILL TAKE MANY DAYS TO GAIN CLARITY ON - BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NATION/S MIDSECTION MAY PAIR UP WITH STALLED
FRONT FROM THURSDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWER/STORM THREATS. 28.00Z AND
28.12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE CONCERNING IN THAT A DEEPENING CYCLONE RUNS NE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN/EVE WITH VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS
AMIDST A MOIST WARM SECTOR AS STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO/INDIANA. SIMILAR RUNS OF GFS ARE FLATTER WITH A COLD
RAIN THREAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC LOW PULLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACED FRONT AND WARM SECTOR
REMAINING SOUTH. EITHER WAY - APPEARS A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG FLOW AND BAROCLINICITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD /PLUMES
OF TEMP WHICH ARE PROXY OF VARYING SFC LOW TRACKS/...JUST KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES MODERATE FOR FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDER MENTION UNTIL
CLARITY IS GAINED...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN
COMING DAYS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/THERMAL GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT KDAY AND KILN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BECOME WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT.
HI RES MODELS SHOW THREE WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE TAF SITES DURING THIS TIME. DO NOT EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL LAST
LONGER AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...NOVAK





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