Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 260222
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
922 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES EAST A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING
TREND WILL BE OBSERVED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AHEAD OF TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF SPRAWLING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AS IT BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR SE. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING
EAST...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS A FEW CIRRUS WAFT IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU THE NIGHT. SRLY WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 20S NE TO THE LOWER 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH TROF OVER THE ROCKIES AND LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SRLY FLOW ON THE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US WILL USHER WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

WAA MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SFC
WAVE EJECTING NE INTO THE MID MS VLY. SRLY FLOW ALONG WITH THESE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE UP WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO
THE UPPER 30S WEST.

NORTHERN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES SAT/SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC FRONT TO TRACK EAST THRU ILN/S
FA SAT NIGHT. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE WEST SAT AFTN
WITH TAIL OF 50-55 LLJ PROVIDING AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SO MILD TEMPERATURES
TO REACH HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY SATURDAY WITH FROPA. DEEP
MOISTURE LOOKS TO EXIST PRIOR TO COLD AIR ARRIVING. HAVE ONLY
ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF R/S MIX TO SNOW PRIOR TO ENDING.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 12Z MODEL UPPER AIR PATTERNS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
FEATURING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHEARING SHORTWAVE
EJECTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION...THOUGH LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...THOUGH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUDS MOVING EAST THROUGH EVENING. SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
OUT OF TAF SITES BY 04Z. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE LEFT FOR FCST
PERIOD. WINDS LIGHTER TONIGHT BUT PICK BACK UP DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY BEFORE BACKING OFF AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...JDR/PADGETT





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