Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 290214
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK





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