Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 271738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
138 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will result in warm and
humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night
into Monday.


Based on latest hrrr model and mesoscale analysis, it appears our
forecast area will be in a min in terms of shower/thunderstorm
chances this afternoon due to the lack of any significant mid
level disturbances and/or low level boundaries. It looks like
there could still be a mid to late afternoon pop up shower or
storm, but this may be less than 15 percent in terms of measurable
precipitation. Have made this adjustment. Otherwise, partly cloudy
skies are expected this afternoon with warm and humid conditions.
highs will be in the mid 80s.


Appears that some energy from subtropical low that will impact
the southeast will shear north into the region over the weekend.
This forcing will help provide a better chance for precipitation
area wide, especially Saturday into Saturday evening. With the
onset of any precipitation potentially earlier in the day along
with more cloud cover, expect highs a bit lower than today. There
could still be some storms on Sunday in the eastern counties from
this sheared energy. But there also could be some showers and
storms in the western counties in advance of a weak cold front.
Forecast is generally closer to cooler guidance each period.


A short wave lifting northeast through the Great Lakes will result
in a weak cold front pushing through the area Sunday night into
Monday. Upper support is moving away from the area and instability
will be decreasing as the front moves in. So chance of
precipitation will be diminishing through the evening even with
the front moving in.

High pressure will build in later Monday and continue to extend
across the area on Tuesday. This will result in slightly lower
humidity along with little if any chance of rain.

A deep trough will develop and then move out of the Plains late in
the week. This will bring another cold front into the region with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms along it.

Temperatures slightly above normal will persist.


Mid level ridging will continue to extend from the mid Atlantic
coast into the upper Ohio valley through Saturday.

Our terminals will be in a lull this afternoon and tonight in
terms of the threat for showers/storms, with an isolated
possibility existing southeast of the terminals late this
afternoon into this evening. Diurnal cumulus should give way to
some mid and high clouds overnight. Some river fog is expected
again at KLUK and have placed a TEMPO 1/2 mile between 08Z and

On Saturday, low to mid level flow will continue from the south.
There still looks to be a lack of any strong forcing. Thus, some
scattered showers/storms could still develop in the heat of the
day, perhaps aided by any weak disturbance rippling through the
flow. Have added a VCSH at the 30 hour KCVG terminal to account
for this.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.




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