Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 271017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
617 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A series of low pressure systems will bring rain chances today and
then every few days into early next week. Temperatures will
generally be near normal to above normal through the period.


.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Central Indiana is currently in between precipitation areas. However
that will change later this morning and especially this afternoon as
a surface low pressure area and upper trough approach from the west.

Rain is currently back across Missouri and Kansas. Isentropic lift
will begin to increase across the forecast area later this morning
as the systems approach. Hi-res models show better chances arrive in
the far southwest forecast area about 15Z and this looks reasonable.

PoPs will gradually spread northeast across the area today, but
forcing could initially be split into the afternoon. The northwest
forecast area will see better chances as a boundary sits near there,
while southern area see forcing from some upper energy ahead of the
main system. This leaves lower chances across the northeast. Tried
to show this trend with the hourly PoPs.

By 00Z most areas will have likely or higher PoPs.

The better instability across the forecast area will be across
southern sections of the area. Have seen indications in the hi-res
model data of a potential MCV impacting the southern forecast area
late in the afternoon, which could aid in the thunderstorm

The Storm Prediction Center has moved the Slight Risk out of the
forecast area due to instability concerns. However, a Marginal Risk
remains across the southern half of the area.

For temperatures, stayed with the model blend.


.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday night/
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Likely or higher PoPs will continue across the forecast area this
evening with the upper trough and surface lows moving through. Could
still see some strong or severe storms across the south early in the

Chances for rain diminish overnight with the exit of the system, and
some low PoPs will linger into Tuesday morning until the system`s
influence is no longer felt.

Dry conditions will then prevail Tuesday night into Wednesday with
some upper ridging moving through. However, the approach of yet
another system Wednesday night will bring some isentropic lift to
the area. This will lead to some low PoPs overnight Wednesday night.

The model blend temperatures look reasonable given expected


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...

Issued at 239 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ECMWF continues what a very appears to be a very repetitive
pattern through this period.

Southwest flow remains in place aloft through the period and we
start Thursday with yet another upper low over the southern plains
poised to push toward he Ohio Valley through Friday. Given the
upper support have continued to include high likely pops through
Friday. Forecast Builders categorical pops seem a bit over
ambitious at this time.

By Friday night the upper low and associated moisture quickly
departs Indiana...allowing yet another ridge of High pressure to
build across the area from the southwest. This should result ion
dry weather from Friday night through Sunday Morning.

On Sunday and Monday...this repeatable weather pattern once again
brings another low pressure system to Indiana from the southern
plains..bringing rain chances back to the state.

Given the warm...southwest flow through the period will continue
with temps at or above seasonal normals.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 271200Z TAFs/...

Issued at 556 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Patchy MVFR Visibilities are expected to quickly burn off this
morning...bringing a brief return to VFR Conditions across the taf
sites. However...flying conditions are expected to deteriorate to
MVFR or worse this afternoon and tonight.

A short wave and associated low pressure system over Missouri will
push northeast to Indiana Today. This will bring showers along
with MVFR conditions to the area this afternoon. Time heights show
good lift and saturation within the mid and lower levels. As the
system departs overnight...lingering lower level moisture may lead
to IFR CIGS overnight.




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