Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 282335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
735 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Rain returns Thursday and continues into Friday as a large upper
level system moves into the area. Rainfall amounts should range
from half an inch to over an in by late Friday. Until then quite
and seasonably weather will predominate through Wednesday night.
Highs the rest of the week will be mainly in the 50s with lows in
the 30s and 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Potent sw disturbance over sw NM this aftn will eject out through w
TX tonight and then open northeast into the wrn OH valley Thu. At
the sfc... ridge extending swd out of Hudson Bay will retreat ewd
into QB as broad srly rtn flow develops on the backside. In the
interim shallow dirty inversion in place should continue to whittle
down as nerly low level dry entrainment upticks overnight into Wed
am. Thereafter will continue to hold out hope that partial
insolation develops on Wed resulting in more vigorous diurnals.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Aforementioned TX shortwave will open and slowly kickout south of
the OH river Fri. In advance of this system... robust deep moisture
tongue with GOMEX origin will advect north into the srn lakes Thu
and interact with frontal zone to bring widespread rainfall to the
area esp Thu morning through Thu evening. Additional shra likely Fri
morning as upper trough overhead accelerates ewd.

Secondary following potent epac disturbance takes a similar track
into the swrn US Fri and then out through the srn plains this
weekend. Short amplitude ridging inbetween with seasonably temps.
This sys then expected to kickout ahead of nrn stream sw advancing
through the nrn Rockies Mon. Details on ewd evolution of this sys
remain quite unclear with sizable spread aloft indicated in spectral
models. Will therefore temper blended pops late Mon-Mon night.
Regardless more substantial temp moderation indicated early to mid
next week ahead of central plains gyre.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Starting to have some doubts about how far south clearing will
work overnight. Satellite trends and timing tools show a steady
southward progression to clearing line this evening across lower
Michigan. Hires models seem to have good handle on this and agree
with latest timing tool suggesting VFR into KSBN between 03z and
04z. Issue is further south and east as low level wind field
begins to veer more easterly overnight as high pressure over Upper
Great Lakes slides southeast. This easterly flow begins to slow
southward progression and last few hires runs show clouds stalling
near KFWA and near the US 24 corridor around 04-06z...about the
time clearing is expected in KFWA TAF. Continued with previous
clearing trend to VFR at KFWA but did slow it down by a few hours
based on satellite. Will have to monitor trends later this evening
but MVFR could hang on at KFWA through the night or be just south
of terminal.





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