Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 301939
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A STATIONARY
LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL CAUSE ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO EARLY EVENING AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHADOW THAT HAS ONCE
AGAIN WORKED WELL INLAND. BY MID EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY TAKING THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THAT BEING SAID
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL STILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL PEAK IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE. HIGHS SHOULD EDGE A DEGREE OR 2 WARMER THAN TODAY WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPR LOW NEAR JAMES BAY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THU NIGHT...
HWVR AN UPR LEVEL TROF SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY
INTO FRIDAY... MOVG SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WK SHRTWVS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPR TROF AND ACROSS OUR CWA BOTH
FRI/SAT WITH WK/MOD DIURNAL INSTABILITY RESULTING IN A CHC OF TSTMS.
BETTER CHC LOOKS TO BE FRI WHEN A SFC REFLECTION INVERTED TROF
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE INVERTED TROF SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE UPR GRTLKS. A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS STILL WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY
AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN WK/MOD
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MEANDERING THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE AFTN TO ALSO FOCUS CONVECTION. GIVEN WK STEERING
FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS... EXPECT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE 30-40% AT BEST.

UPR LEVEL TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OH SUNDAY SHIFTING
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY TO EAST OF OUR CWA. SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS
SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD PUSH A SLOW MOVG BACKDOOR CDFNT
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BY TUE. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT MAY
ALLOW AFTN TSTMS TO FORM OVER THE AREA TUE. WRN RIDGE EXPECTED TO
CONT TO FLATTEN AS NEXT SHRTWV MOVES OVER TOP AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WED. THIS MAY RESULT IN SCT TSTMS ALONG/NORTH OF THE STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY... MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY... THEN WARM
TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODEST UPR RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THESE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT LEAST INTO TUE... WITH WK CAA BEHIND
BACKDOOR CDFNT PRBLY IMPACTING AT LEAST THE N-NE PORTION OF THE
CWA BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE KSBN AREA AS LAKE SHADOW
HAS NOW PASSED OVER THE AIRPORT RESULTING IN A MORE STABLE SETUP.
AT KFWA CU WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIDELY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES IN. HAVE LEFT
VCTS IN PLACE GIVEN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO FORM
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON IMPACT AT AIRPORT. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM ACROSS THE SKY FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER


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