Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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714
FXUS63 KIWX 031638
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1138 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1138 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Cloudy, cool, and mainly dry conditions will persist through
Sunday morning. Highs both this afternoon and on Sunday will reach
the mid to upper 30s, with lows tonight near 30 degrees. An area
of light snow, mixed with rain, will move through the region
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Precipitation should mainly
fall as snow northwest of U.S. 24, and mainly as a mixture of
rain and snow to the south. Some light accumulation of snow may
occur on grassy surfaces. The early portion of next week will
trend a little warmer with rain possible later Monday night into
Tuesday. Some snow may once again mix in. A strong cold front then
brings cold air and chances for lake effect snow for the second
half of the upcoming work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 456 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

A sprinkle or flurry is possible early today as clouds continue to
linger over the area under the base of a low but substantial
subsidence inversion. Otherwise, conditions should remain dry today
and tonight with light winds as a high pressure area moves across
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 456 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Active weather will accompany the first full week of December as up
to 4 systems bring a variety of weather to the area. An upper level
trof will move across the Great Lakes region and bring a rain and
snow mix Sunday. Low level thermal fields are marginal for snow
accumulation; however light snow accumulations up to an inch are
likely on mainly grassy areas especially over far southern Lower
Michigan into northern Indiana by Sunday evening. Travel issues
appear minimal with relatively warm low level temperatures. A second
system will closely follow the path of the Sunday system with a good
chance for rain Tuesday. This system will be an ejecting system in
the southern stream. The forecast area should be on the northwest
fringe of this system with the best chance of rain from Portland to
Lima. A brief period of a wintry mix is possible at the onset of
precipitation Monday night and early Tuesday; however, little if any
winter weather hazards are expected at this time for this second
system.

A third system and later possibly a fourth will bring much colder
air to the area late this upcoming week. Model choice was difficult
given the GFS abandonment of a snow producing wave on the front
Wednesday night. The ECMWF still holds onto this system, bringing a
round of snow ahead of a very strong cold front. After coordination
with surrounding offices, have thrown out the model blend for
Wednesday night that favors the drier solutions and ignores the
previous forecast. Lake effect snow will develop as much colder air
spreads over the mild lake waters. Delta T values should eventually
reach close to 25C, so lake effect snow accumulations appear very
favorable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Outside of a stray flurry/sprinkle this afternoon expect dry
conditions to prevail. Overcast stratocu deck will likely remain
in place through the TAF cycle under strong inversion. Cigs will
continue to generally range between 2500 ft and 4000 ft.
Precipitation and VIS restrictions likely overspread the terminals
shortly after 18z tomorrow.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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