Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 282344
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
644 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Dry air is getting entrained into the rain system moving across
Nebraska. The easterly cold conveyor has not moisten up and there
is evidence from radar the moisture divergence is occurring
across Swrn Neb. The rain area across Wrn KS should continue
moving north this evening and get shunted east. The forecast
continues to follow a blended approach which resembles the RAP
model.

The better rain should shift south across Swrn Neb this evening and
then into Scntl Neb early Wednesday. Moisture advection weakens
across Nrn Neb this evening and rain chances across northwest Neb
end Wednesday morning. A developing area of rain across ern Neb
Wednesday may wrap west into Ncntl Neb. If this does not happen then
Wrn and Ncntl Nebraska could dry out Wednesday afternoon.

The forecast for dew points uses the RAP and GFS which were more
moist. Temperatures are blended deterministic data plus bias
correction. There appears to be a cold bias in the guidance and the
warmer temperatures tonight would likely preclude any kind of mix of
rain and snow across Wrn Neb tonight. In fact, the NAM and GFS
dominant model precip is all rain. The NAM 4km Nest suggests a mix
and a mix is in place across the Wrn Sandhills...generally near or
above 4000 feet where temperatures might fall into the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Lingering light rain is possible across the far southeast part of
the forecast area, from O`Neill to Broken Bow to Curtis Wednesday
evening. After midnight the system will have shifted east of the
area. Have backed off on pops a little Wednesday evening, as
convection to the southeast of the area appears will adjust the over
kinematics/location of the system, keeping the main deformation band
of precipitation mainly south and east of the area.

Thursday will be a dry day with upper level ridging briefly taking
control ahead of the next system. GFS ensemble mean closes of this
next system across southern Colorado Friday, then slowly tracks east
across Kansas Saturday. This track would provide another shot of
potentially beneficial rainfall for at least the southern half of
Nebraska.

System moves slowly northeast in a weakening state Sunday. Scattered
showers will remain in the forecast Sunday as the system opens up
and slowly tracks northeast across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Generally IFR to MVFR conditions due to ceilings and rain can be
expected through early Wednesday morning. Conditions will improve
somewhat during the day Wednesday, with MVFR across southwest
through central Nebraska, and some VFR for areas across north
central Nebraska into the Panhandle. Light rain will remain
possible through Wednesday, especially across southwest through
central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor



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