Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 220920

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
320 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Near term models have good handle on present weather and have good
confidence in the forecast. First round of precipitation between
North Platte and O`Neill. Looking at satellite wv has second wave
over southeast Colorado and moving nne towards the Nebraska
Panhandle. HRR indicating next round of precipitation beginning
mid morning southwest and Nebraska Panhandle as upper jet moves
across the forecast area. Using tracking tool this seems to be on
track. Negatively tilted system, with best forcing early this
afternoon along a line from Grant to O`Neill. This area could move
20 miles north or south of this line. Temperatures are expected
to move little today with cool air aloft and cloud cover and light
snow from mid morning through the evening. Highs this afternoon
in the mid 20s. Wave will move northeast and out of the forecast
area after midnight. Snow ratios around 15 or 16 throughout the
event with accumulations around 1 to 2 inches north of the
interstate. Lows tonight will fall into the teens most areas with
single digits to the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

An active start to the extended period is expected for north central
Nebraska. Friday starts off dry, however, the next winter system
will move into the region Friday night. Model guidance is still very
inconsistent with the track, timing, and strength of this storm. In
addition, there are also uncertainties in the precipitation type
with some models hinting at a favorable setup for some freezing rain
at the onset of the precipitation (Friday night/early Saturday
morning). If freezing rain occurs, it will significantly cut down on
snow totals. For now, will keep the freezing rain in the forecast
with a band of 2 to 4 inches across much of the forecast area.
Locations across the eastern third (generally east of a line from
Broken Bow to Springview) could see locally higher amounts of snow
as cold air filters in behind the low pressure system. Another
concern with this system will be the possibility of strong winds on
Saturday which would cause blowing snow and reductions in
visibilities. Will hold off on and headlines for this forecast
issuance until details become more clear.

A quiet and dry pattern returns from Saturday night through next
Tuesday. Another chance of snow/wintry mix arrives in the middle of
next week. Only put chance pops in the forecast at this time as
track of this system is very uncertain.

For temperatures, highs will slowly rise from the upper 20s to low
30s on Friday into the upper 30s to low 40s by Tuesday. Highs return
to the 30s for the middle of next week. For overnight low
temperatures, generally upper teens to low 20s will be seen across
the forecast area through the middle of next week. Overnight lows
will hold steady in the mid to upper teens from Friday night through
the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Areas of flurries occurring from southwest into central Nebraska
late this evening with VFR ceilings. Overcast skies will expand
northward across north central Nebraska overnight as cigs drop to
MVFR from 09z- 12z overnight across southwest into central
Nebraska as the next storm system approaches. Light snow will
develop across much of western Nebraska Thursday morning
(affecting KLBF and KVTN) and continue into the afternoon. MVFR
cigs and vsbys are possible after 22/12z southwest and 22/18z
north central. Any lingering snow should end across western
Nebraska by 00z/23rd as IFR ceilings improve to MVFR in some




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