Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241127
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE STAGNANT UPPER AIR PATTERN TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TONIGHT AS THE H25
JETSTREAM AXIS TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS DECREASED THE OVERALL FLOW OF MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH...WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TO PROVIDE MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LINGER THIS MORNING.
BY NOON TIME CDT...LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LIFT SOME ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THAT WILL AID IN BETTER CHANCE FOR HEATING WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. AS TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASING WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AS THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.

OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS SHOULD LINGER FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE
AND FOG. AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE LESS WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OUTSIDE OF LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE NORTH PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN HIGH WITH
THE ADDITIONAL RAINS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO
HELP MAINTAIN HIGHER FLOWS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER AND FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING FOR MEMORIAL DAY...AND ARE TRENDING TOWARD MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT NUDGES EAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FRONT DOES LITTLE TO
ELIMINATE SURFACE MOISTURE IN IT/S WAKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOP IN WESTERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP KEEP INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM...SO SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOW. THE
STORMS TRACK EAST MONDAY EVENING. A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM PV MAX
QUICKLY EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND PHASES WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING TO KICK IT EAST
OVERNIGHT MONDAY. TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ARE THE ONLY DRY
PERIODS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES. DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM
IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE IN THE
DAY...AND MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AT
THE SFC AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA
ALOFT. THIS WILL ADVECT RICHER THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA.
GFS AND GEM DEVELOP STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
CAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ONE
MITIGATING FACTOR IS MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MESSY STORM MODES WITH COMPETING UPDRAFTS.

A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER LATEST MODELS TRENDS
KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY THAT WILL CREATE LOWER CEILINGS
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT KVTN TERMINAL.
IN THE SOUTHWEST DRIER AIR WILL WORK NORTH THAT WILL HELP RAISE
LIFR CEILING TO IFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON HEATING
OF THE DAY COMBINED WITH ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS
QUESTIONABLE AND LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...KECK







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