Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 272246
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
LOOK TO TOP OUT SOME 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER AS WELL IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.  THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCED OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS.  AFTER SUNDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE.  WITH THIS FORECAST, PLAN ON GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND A BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED.  WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN.  AS OFTEN THE
CASE THROUGHOUT THIS SUMMER, WE`VE SEEN THE MODELS GO AFTER A WARMER
PATTERN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY FOR THINGS
TO GET PUSHED BACK.  THIS TIME AROUND, THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT HAVE THE LEGS TO GO WARM, BUT THE SPREAD IN TEH MODEL DATA
FROM MID-WEEK ON LOWERS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT.  IN ADDITION,
WE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA PUSHING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE
TO THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH DOES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL READINGS.

HIGHS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.  A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 80S
AND TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK.  SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING INDEED BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED INTO OUR AREA, TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT
KBWG. OTHERWISE...SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........KJD


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