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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 251613
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1213 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Current forecast on track through today. High pressure centered over
southwest Kentucky will drift east while a secondary front is slated
to pass through later this afternoon and evening. Deeper mixing will
promote gusty winds, especially across southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky. Westerly wind gusts 20-30 mph expected through
sunset.

Dewpoints have mixed out into the mid to upper 40s as well,
especially across the Bluegrass region. Have lowered dewpoints
several degrees, blending with the latest RAP guidance which seems
to be handling this the best. This puts minimum RH values into the
low 30s. Finally, bumped up highs a couple degrees in the typical
warmer areas, putting most locations 80-83 degrees.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Dry and uneventful weather can be expected for the short term
period. Surface analysis reveals broad area of Canadian high
pressure beginning to nose its way down into the northern Plains,
with its influence being felt across much of the central and eastern
CONUS. Pleasant temperatures can be expected this afternoon, with
highs generally reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will be
breezy, with gusts in the 20-25mph range during peak heating, but
should die down after sunset.

Another surge of invigorating, crisp Canadian air will keep
temperatures even cooler for Monday, with afternoon highs only
reaching the mid to upper 70s for many locations. While not record
breaking, the afternoon high could come within a few degrees of the
record low max for Bowling Green. See the climate section of the AFD
for more details.

.Long Term (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Shortwave embedded within the base of a trough axis will impact the
region Monday evening and bring isolated to scattered showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms. Models seem to not have a good handle on
the placement of the precipitation, with the 00z GFS/GEFS keeping
the bulk of the precipitation in northern Kentucky and southern
Indiana... while the 00z ECMWF keeps it farther south across central
and southern Kentucky... and the 00z NAM just does its own thing and
splits the precip north and south of the CWA. Will broadbrush a
large area of isolated to scattered PoPs for the region Monday night
into Tuesday morning to account for uncertainty. With the exception
of the ECMWF, most models keep overall QPF amounts light, with most
places not picking up more than a couple tenths of an inch. Given
the environment and considering that most activity should be non
convective, am keeping the ECMWF QPF out of the forecast for now.

Any lingering shower activity should push out of the region by
Tuesday afternoon as high pressure begins to settle in. The surface
high gradually moves east through the midweek period, and eventually
into the Atlantic Ocean. This will result in a southerly flow regime
and bring the region back to a more summerlike pattern by the end of
the week with increasing temperatures, humidity, and chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period as dry high
pressure remains in control. Modest pressure gradient, but deep
mixing will allow wind gusts near 20 kt this afternoon for SDF and
LEX. Look for winds to lay down quickly around with sunset due to
loss of heating.


&&

.Climate...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Here are some record low max and record low climate data for the
early part of next week for SDF, LEX, and BWG ASOS sites.

Record Lows        Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              52              52                51
June 27th              52              51                52
June 28th              53              50                50

Record Low Max     Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              68              66                75

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...ZT
Short Term........DM
Long Term.........DM
Aviation..........RAS
Climate...DM
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
