Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 011202 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015


UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE MAY BE SLIGHT WARMING LATE
IN THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)... A GOOD SIZED EDDY HAS DRIVEN THE MARINE
LAYER UP TO 2800 FEET. THIS...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE TRENDS...HAS
ALLOWED MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO COVER ALL THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE
VLYS. EVEN THOUGH THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT THAT STRONG THE EDDY
COULD ALLOW FOR LATER THAN NORMAL CLEARING AND MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS
OVER A FEW BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER HGTS...STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL ALL COMBINE TO LOWER TEMPS
ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WHILE
THE VLYS AND INLAND AREAS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND AN ASSOCIATED
TROF XTNDS INTO NRN CA AND SHARPENS UP A BIT. THE LOWER HGTS WILL
LIKELY KNOCK ANOTHER 1 OR 2 DEGREES OFF OF MAX TEMPS BUT OTHERWISE
BOTH WED AND THU WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)... EC AND GFS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO OREGON ON FRIDAY AND THEN INTO FAR NRN CA ON SATURDAY.
PERSISTENT TROFFING WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN CA. THE NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT 7. SATURDAY MAY BE A DEGREE WARMER AS THE TROF MOVES
OUT IN THE MORNING WITH SOME HGT RISES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE DURING
THE EVENING.

THE EC AND GFS DISAGREE ON THE SUN MON. THE EC ADVERTISING SHALLOW
TROFFING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS THINKS AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM
NEAR EUREKA AND THEN RETROGRADE SW TO A LOCATION ABOUT 150 MILES
WEST OF MONTERREY. DESPITE THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS HGTS ARE ABOUT
THE SAME. BOTH MDLS SHOW DECENT WARMING FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH DOES
NOT MAKE TOO MUCH SENSE GIVEN THE TROFFING AND ONSHORE FLOW AND KEPT
FORECAST COOLER THAN MDLS WOULD INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1200Z

AT 12Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 3000 FEET
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE
FOOTHILLS. EXPECT CLEARING IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AT THE BEACHES S OF PT CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CLOUDS
COULD LINGER ALL DAY AT SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM SRN SBA
COUNTY THRU L.A. COUNTY.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC THAT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALL DAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...

01/300 AM.

SCA CONDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. EVEN IF WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS...STEEP
AND SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS WILL LIKELY CONT TO CREATE
DANGEROUS CONDS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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