Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 211646
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
946 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THAT PEAKS ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AN INCREASE IN COASTAL OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...THE UPPER TROF MOVED BY THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND LEFT IN ITS WAKE SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IN CLOUD COVER IS OVER
SOUTHERN LA COUNTY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON THIS HOUR IN A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH SLO
COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND CLOUDS HUGGING THE VTU
COUNTY NORTH SLOPES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL STILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF SUN MOST AREAS WHEN AVERAGED OVER THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNER WINDS STARTING
THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT SO WILL BE ISSUING ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN A BUILDING RIDGE TO USHER IN A
BRIEF WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES...AND THEN ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY. STILL
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WARM ON THURSDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...BUT STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 AM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

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