Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 272036 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
135 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU
EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL.
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING
FRI/SAT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.