Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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881
FXUS66 KLOX 081658
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
858 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A COOLING
TREND...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
A MORNING UPDATE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MON-THU)

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND TEMPS ARE THE BIG ISSUES.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE STRONGEST AND WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN 8+ MB GRAD
FROM KDAG. WINDS PERHAPS ARE NOT A STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
DUE TO WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL SOME
WARNING LEVEL GUSTS WILL OCCUR FROM THE LA MTNS INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA VLY THEN INTO THE CSTL VLYS OF VTA COUNTY...THE SANTA
MONICAS AND WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY. WIND ADVISORIES COVER THE
REST OF VTA AND LA COUNTIES SAVE FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND
WARNINGS WILL UNDOUBTABLY BE CONVERTED TO WIND ADVISORIES THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE WARNINGS EXPIRE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL NEED
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENTS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE MORNING OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE THROUGH THE ROOF TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH 585 HGTS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AND TUESDAY. ALL OF THE CSTS AND VLYS WILL BE IN THE
80S TODAY AND THEN LOOK FOR A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ON TUESDAY.
THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A FEW OR COOLING EACH DAY
WED AND THU.


.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

NOT MUCH CHANGE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BOTH SFC AND
ALOFT. IN FACT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO DISTINGUISH THU FROM FRI.

THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY AND IS REPLACED BY WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW. SKIES MAY BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECT IN. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES BUT WILL STILL BE
6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE GFS BEGINS TO GO ITS OWN WAY ON SUNDAY FORMING AN UPPER LOW TO
THE SW - LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A FEW TOO MANY BUTTERFLIES IN ITS
PHYSICS AND WAS DISCOUNTED. ALL OTHER MDLS CONTINUE SOME SORT OF
RIDGING AND THAT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY THE CASE. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF COOLING.


&&

.AVIATION...08/1200Z...

AT 10Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO NOTABLE INVERSION.

OVERALL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z CAVU TAFS. THERE IS A
THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AT
TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z CAVU TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE. ANY EAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z CAVU TAF. THERE IS A THIRTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...08/300 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTENDING OUT TO INCLUDE THE
COASTAL ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
BY THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE PARTICULARLY GUSTY NEAR SHORE AND NEAR CANYON MOUTHS.



&&

.FIRE...

08/900 PM...

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...AS RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR VENTURA COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY (EXCEPT FOR
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY) THROUGH 600 PM THIS EVENING. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY. SO...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
RISK THROUGH TUESDAY...AND EVEN A CHANCE THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SECTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547-548. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44-547-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 45-46-53-54. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ZONE
      676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
FIRE...SUKUP
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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