Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 230808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
308 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017


The cold front responsible for our afternoon and evening
thunderstorms was pushing through Permian Basin and North Texas this
morning. Radar showed a broken line of storms across the Permian
Basin, while a stronger complex was still hanging on over North
Texas. A few straggler, small showers/storms were still working
their way southward through our forecast area.

Today, the ridge to our west begins to collapse but we remain in
favorable NW flow through Thursday. Add to that easterly upslope
flow, and thunderstorm chances will hang around the forecast. Storms
will most likely start over the terrain of NM and push
east/southeast, making the Rolling Plains less likely to see rain
the next two days. However, a passing shortwave on Friday raises
hopes for precip chances to spread further east. By Saturday,
however, TC Harvey will have most likely made landfall somewhere
along the TX Gulf Coast. There is still too much uncertainty on the
track and strength of the cyclone, but with current model
projections, initially moisture may be pushed into our eastern
zones, but we should quickly settle into the subsidence side of the

As for temperatures the next few days, thanks to recent rains
saturating the ground and cloud cover, along with easterly winds,
we should see rather pleasant temps, mostly in the 80s...and well
below normal.




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