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FXUS64 KLUB 251718 AAB
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are in place at all three TAF sites currently and
should remain so through the afternoon. There could be a few
storms around KCDS that will quickly move off to the east and
others storms east of KPVW that will not impact that airport.
However, confidence is increasing that a large complex of storms
will develop tonight and move towards KPVW and KLBB through the
early morning hours. The timing is still uncertain however so will
go with a wide window of VCTS until we get a better feel for the
timing. Storms will dissipate by sunrise Monday leaving VFR
conditions through tomorrow.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

AVIATION...
KPVW and KLBB continue to hover between VFR and MVFR, while
guidance continues to suggest potential for IFR ceilings through
15z at both terminals. KCDS should remain VFR through the forecast
period. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
vicinity of all three sites later this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Convection finally on the increase across northeast New Mexico and
the Panhandle as a short wave trough and associated modest jet
streak begin to act on the low to mid level moisture in place
across the southern High Plains. Models, particularly the hi-res,
but with support from the WRF-NAM, are in pretty good agreement in
increasing the thunderstorm coverage across the area, possibly
expanding southward into the South Plains through the morning.
Situation warrants increasing PoPs into the likely category for
the northwestern third of the forecast area. Also note a
possibility of some locally heavy rainfall with these storms.
Forcing for this batch of storms will shift to the east of the
area this afternoon ushering a quiet period. The next, and what
appears to be last wave, rotating through the jet stream that
dives southeastward from southwestern Canada to the central Plains
should generate additional thunderstorms across northern New
Mexico this evening. Timing indicates late night storms possibly
lingering past sunrise Monday favoring the western half of the
region.

With the aforementioned jet streak ejecting eastward the upper
ridge over northern Mexico and the desert Southwest will be
allowed to expand eastward which should begin to diminish
precipitation chances and allow the cool temperatures of today and
Monday to increase back above seasonal norms, possibly to the
century mark again Wednesday as a surface trough moves into the
South Plains with drier air and a westerly low level component to
the winds work their way into the area. The ridge is still progged
to flatten late in the week due to a significant short wave trough
moving across the Canadian Rockies toward the northern Plains.
That will bring a cold front toward, if not into, the forecast
area toward Friday (although models seem to slowly be backing off
this solution). Will keep slight chance to low end chance PoPs
going Friday and Saturday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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