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000
FXUS64 KLUB 062345
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
545 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING UNDER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS AT LBB MAY TEMPORARILY DEGRADE TO MVFR. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY
INTRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS SURFACE WINDS VEER
EASTERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TODAY UNDER NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
STRATUS AS MOSTLY CLEARED OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND OR MAKE A COME BACK THIS EVENING UNDER SHALLOW EASTERLY
WINDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AGAIN TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH
IS NOT NEARLY AS SHARP AS THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AND WILL TRAVEL
FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE LIFT WILL BEGIN BEFORE
12Z NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE BUT WILL BECOME STRONGER
OFF THE CAPROCK. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE AND
SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS. GIVEN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER AT OR
BELOW -10C...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

LONG TERM...
LIFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
SNOW. A STRONG JET STREAK STILL LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROF QUICKLY MOVES OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. RAPID LEE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH HELPS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND TO RETURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH TYPICALLY HELPS WARM THINGS UP BY ADDING SOME
DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. MOS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TRY
AND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS SO COLD THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A
WARMUP AND OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BUT
THIS DOES FINALLY GET OUR HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING.

AS THE MAIN TROF MOVES EAST...ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HELPING TO DROP MIN TEMPS MONDAY MORNING BACK
INTO THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ON
WHETHER CONTINUED WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. TIMING OF THE FRONTS CHANGES DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA         3  17  11  39  10 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA          5  15  11  38  10 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW      6  15  12  39  11 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND      7  17  14  42  16 /  10  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK        6  15  12  40  14 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   11  19  16  44  19 /  10  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    10  17  15  43  18 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS      5  16   9  33  10 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR           7  15  12  40  15 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT      8  16  13  41  14 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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