857
FXUS64 KLUB 160514
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late tomorrow night and
   last through early Friday morning.

 - Triple-digit temperatures are forecast by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, subtropical ridging continues to flatten
over the majority of the Lower 48, as a compact shortwave continues
to dig into the Glacier Country. A barotropic low was still rotating
offshore Baja California, and will continue to rotate poleward over
the next 48 hours as it deflects the plume of monsoonal moisture
towards the southern High Plains region. The 250 mb trough partially
responsible for the widely-scattered storms yesterday has since
sheared out, with its waveguide becoming much broader in amplitude
while flow remains at around 25 kt, per the 16/00Z objectively
analyzed UA charts. Mid-level flow is otherwise anemic, which is
typical of a deamplified, subtropical ridge in the mid-summer.

At the surface, breezy, southerly winds persist and will remain
intact through the short-term period, as the isallobaric response
generated by lee cyclogenesis in the north-central Great Plains
ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough maintains the leeward
pressure falls. METAR and mesonet data indicate that the surface
trough remains anchored west of the edge of the Mescalero
Escarpment, with the nearest lee cyclone rotating in southeastern
CO. The synoptic cold front has moved into the Palmer Divide, while
bending northeastward past the I-80 corridor and beyond the Nebraska
Sandhills. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will be a couple of
degrees warmer than this past morning due to the southerly fetch.

Slightly positive geopotential height rises will lead to warmer
temperatures than what was observed today, with highs expected to
climb into the lower-middle 90s beneath full insolation. Cu will
begin to bubble by peak heating, but storm chances will hold off
until after sunset, as diurnally-driven storms across the higher
terrain in east/northeastern NM propagate southeastward towards the
far southern TX PH. The intensification of the low-level jet to
around 35 kt will facilitate a slow decay in storms throughout the
overnight hours into Thursday morning, with the best storm chances
across the far southern TX PH. WAA-induced, poleward-moving showers
will be possible across the remainder of the CWA early Thursday
morning, but a veering low-level jet will keep coverage of showers
isolated. Morning lows Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, and
winds will also diminish to below 10 mph by sunrise Thursday.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Prospects for storms Thursday evening remain intact for locales
across the Caprock, as guidance has attained a better handle on the
position of the synoptic cold front as it sags southward. While the
opening of the barotropic low over Baja California will impart some
baroclinity along the western periphery of the expanding ridge
centered across the western Atlantic Basin, with the CWA being
positioned within close proximity to the right-entrance region to
the northern-stream 250 mb jet streak, the belt of monsoonal
convection should remain largely west and north of the CWA. The best
potential for storms will be across the far southwestern TX PH and
into portions of the South Plains, but storm motion will become
reliant on propagation from outflow-related theta deficits heading
into early Friday morning as storms propagate away from the stalling
front. Such theta deficits should be large given high-based LFCs and
a well-mixed sub-cloud layer, which bolsters the confidence in where
the best storm chances are forecast to occur. Increasing subsidence
in the mid-levels as the convection propagates southeastward across
northeastern NM and into the southern TX PH should result in a
gradual decrease in coverage by early Friday morning. Drier and
hotter temperatures are forecast this weekend and into early next
week, as there remains agreement among the global NWP guidance on
the amplification of the subtropical ridge as it becomes centered
near the Deep South. For now, the forecast is dry by the end of the
extended period, but a southwestward orientation to the steering
flow may result in renewed potential for monsoonal storms.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51