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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 291123
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Continued VFR and light easterly low level flow, with a stationary
upper level high pressure ridge overhead and a surface high pressure
ridge nosing in just east of the area. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
An upper level high pressure ridge will maintain across the southern
high plains today and tonight. Plenteous high clouds just west of
the upper ridge axis will continue to spill over at times and may
lead to opaque periods especially across western counties. Today and
tonight will be cooler, courtesy of a weak cold front that was now
edging slowly into the southwestern south plains. Relatively minor
temperature and dewpoint changes associated with this push, but will
still result in a temperature drop today of 10 to 15 degrees from
Wednesday. A surface high pressure ridge will jut into eastern
counties and low level east to northeast flow will gradually
transition to southeast and southerly tonight. No significant
weather expected nor significant changes from the previous forecast.
RMcQueen

LONG TERM...
Very few changes in the forecast through the weekend except for
high temps on Sunday which are now a little cooler than previous
guidance. Mainly due to increased shortwave energy embedded in
weak ridging as the ridge axis shifts eastward over the weekend.
The increased instability will result in showers and
thunderstorms in the Texas Panhandle and more cloud coverage
across our CWA.

Both GFS and ECMWF have begun to show some consensus on the
next system arriving for the beginning of next week. What was
once progged as an open trough with warmer and drier air, now has
both models indicating a deeper more progressive trough and
better potential for precip, which is now indicated with slight
chance POPS beginning late Monday into Tuesday. The exiting
trough to the east will drop another weak progressive surface
front through our area with yet another pleasant cool down next
Wednesday.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office