Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KLUB 190530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1230 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

Temperatures were cooling a little quicker than forecast across
the northwestern zones, with Muleshoe already within a degree or
two of the forecast low. Have adjusted overnight lows downward
several degrees over the sandy soils of the northwestern South
Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle. Otherwise, only minor
adjustments to dewpoint and wind grids made to better align with
recent observations and NWP trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

Quiet weather pattern continues with most interesting feature
being a more organized mid-level low than expected, currently
passing out of northern old Mexico into the Big Bend area
spreading cirrus across our CWA, though not enough to limit
heating with todays highs on schedule for the most part.
Models have begun to catch up with midlevel circulation which may
limit surface moisture advection this far north over the next few
days as current guidance has trended dewpoints down slightly. Top
down moistening and lower dewpoints will limit coverage of
potential precip overnight Thursday into Friday with better
chances farther west in higher elevations and surface convergence.
GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate weak signals for showers and
scattered thunder primarily across the northern Rolling Plains as
the broader trough axis traverses across our area from New Mexico
through Texas into Oklahoma late Friday into Saturday. Drier trend
continues into Saturday pushing best precip chances well off to
the east off the Caprock as drier air mixes to the surface and
westerly surface winds increase out ahead of the advancing cold
front that will approach our northern counties out of the Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening.

All indication continue to show that we`ll be warmer behind the
mostly dry front than previously thought with highs generally
around 70s as surface winds gradually ease and eventually become
southwesterly by Monday morning warming us into the upper 70s
before yet another cold front cools us back down again on Tuesday
back to the upper 60s and low 70s. The long wave pattern will
continue up and down temperature trends but we continue to look
mostly dry from Sunday through next week.




99/99/28 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.