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000
FXUS64 KLUB 290455
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. LBB WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST
TERMINAL IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION...AS ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT. PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING CDS DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A BREAK IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POTENTIALLY REDEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS LATER
ACTIVITY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT CDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL IMPACTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
THE STUBBORN LINE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AS OF
00Z...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND CREEPING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE LINE VERY SLOWLY. IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST
HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE BEFORE
DIMINISHING...HOWEVER MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS THE BORDER. UPDATED POPS TO
ELIMINATE MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 06Z...AND
FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AS IT DEVELOPS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AFTER 06Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH 12Z WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS WITH
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  40  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  30  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  30  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  20  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  30  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  20  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  20  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16