Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 221114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
614 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

VFR conditions through the period with south to southwest winds.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016/

Dry air quite apparent on water vapor imagery this morning as high
pressure aloft rotates over Texas. One would be hard pressed to find
a cloud over the forecast area at this hour, and that trend will
persist throughout the day. A noticeable difference from Friday will
be the warmer temperatures...back into the 80s for all, which is
well above seasonal normals. Breezy southwesterly winds today will
help boost those temperatures, as well as keep them slightly
elevated overnight from the cool Saturday morning we`ll be waking up
to. Otherwise, a calm fall day in store.

Increased thickness are progged for Sunday despite the center of
the upper ridge beginning to shift east toward the central Gulf
coast. That trend combined with warm...dry air coming in on
southwest mid level flow will see high temperatures warm a few
degrees over today`s highs. Decreasing heights and thicknesses
Monday will see temperatures drop back down close to what is
expected today. Further erosion of heights and thicknesses Tuesday
with the approach of a mid level wave across the central Rockies
will see further cooling of high temperatures, although likely
still a few degrees above normal. This mid level wave is still
progged by some models to interact with low level moisture in
place across the region and develop some isolated convection
Tuesday afternoon. Still consider this to be an unlikely solution,
although will not be surprised to see model consensus begin to
latch onto this possibility a little more as the time frame
approaches. For now will keep precip mention out of the forecast.
Moving into Tuesday night still sees the possiblity for a few
showers to brush the northeastern corner of the forecast area as
the wave sweeps eastward across the central plains. The remainder
of the forecast will see high pressure build overhead again from
the southwest. A cold front behind the mid level wave will keep
temperatures near persistence for Wednesday followed by a modest
warming trend associated with increasing heights and thicknesses
late in the week.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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