Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 050800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SWRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ARE RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM. THE HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY TO THE VA PIEDMONT AND N-CNTRL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS FURTHER AS IT WAS THOUGHT THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO COVER A LARGER AREA BY THIS POINT IN THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OFFICIALLY BE ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-039-040-050>053-055>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS



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