Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 200726
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
HELP USHER THAT HIGH OUT. ONE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PASS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA...PAST CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. THE
SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND DURING MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...INCLUDING SOME
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTINS
WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE RIDGE THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE EAST FLOW WEAKENS AS THE HIGH SLIPS AWAY...EXPECT ANY
MORNING OVERCAST TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE TODAY AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAGGED OFF THE ATLANTIC BY EAST
FLOW...ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DCA WILL BE BATTLING POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANY LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD BREAK
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS LATE FRIDAY HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
AGAIN BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH LUNAR TIDES AND EAST WINDS ARE CREATING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDES. AT THIS POINT HIGHER ANAMOIES ARE IN THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY.
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SE OVER THE WATERS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THE NEXT SEVERAL TIDES. MOST CONCERNING AT
THE MOMENT IS DC WATERFRONT TIDE GAUGE WHICH COULD POSSIBLY HIT
MINOR FLOODING WITH THIS MORNINGS TIDE. THE REST ARE FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...CAS/HTS
MARINE...CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS





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