Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 071147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
647 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015


Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.



An area of showers and thunderstorms moving slowly NE looks to
affect FST within the first few hours of the TAF period, though
should weaken before making it to MAF. Thunderstorm chances
increase this afternoon, especially across the west, with storms
spreading to the east this evening and tonight, though have not
included mention anywhere but CNM given timing uncertainties. VFR
conditions are expected until the onset of TSRA at area TAF sites,
when heavy rain could result in MVFR/IFR conditions.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/

Upper low bringing potential for thunderstorms with heavy rain over
an extended number of periods to W TX and SE NM.  Looking on IR the
upper low can be seen over AZ early this morning with quite a bit of
thunderstorms ahead of it in NM and far W TX.  The latest model runs
seem to be in pretty good agreement and are tending to take the low
from AZ southward into Mexico... 24 hrs ago they tended to bring the
low eastward to the edge of TX.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for most of the region through
Thursday... this may have to be extended in time.  Latest qpf still
supports most of the heavy rain will be along and west of the Pecos
River... have some concerns about how far east the heavy rain will
make it into the Permian Basin.  That track of the low could limit
the heavy rain potential for the eastern part of the watch.  Have
shifted the heaviest rainfall totals farther west.  High rain
chances continue through Friday then pops begin to decrease Saturday.
Most of next week looks fairly dry.

Temp forecast will be a little tricky as rain and clouds should help
hold daytime temps down but will only take a little sun to break
through to heat a location up.  Have bumped up temps just slightly
today across the east.  Below normal temps are expected Thursday
through Saturday and then warm into next week.

This morning have had some storms from Presidio Co. into Reeves. The
area of the greatest concern for today/tonight will be the west...
from SE NM down through the Marfa Plateau/Rio Grande Valley.
Heaviest rain tonight looks to be over SE New Mexico which has
already had some locally heavy rain over the past few days.  Have
bumped up pops slightly over Eddy Co.  Could also see some severe
storms today across the west but believe heavy rain will be biggest
threat.  On Thursday more of the rain will come into the Permian
Basin but heaviest may only hit the western and/or southern edges.
Friday expect heavy rain threat to begin to decrease with greatest
totals over the Trans Pecos.


NM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.



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