Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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842
FXUS64 KMAF 201859
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Over the next week, we expect temperatures to remain at or above
seasonal norms for the most part, though slightly cooler
temperatures are on tap mid-week. Though it will remain warm, rain
chances will continue across parts of the area for the next
several days.

Under the influence of an upper level ridge over south Texas,
satellite water vapor imagery depicts more significant mid-level
moisture shunted west of a large part of the area today with
deeper moisture and corresponding theta-e ridge confined to the
higher terrain, resulting in little if any thunderstorm activity
across the eastern half of the area and enhanced thunderstorm
chances west. Satellite imagery also appears to show a weak MCV
circulation left from overnight convection in northern Mexico
moving northward close to the western Culberson county line which
could enhance thunderstorm development in Culberson and Eddy
Counties over the next several hours. These areas also have
precipitable water values in excess of 1.5" suggesting that
locally heavy rainfall will be possible through the evening hours.
High rainfall rates and slow storm movement could bring some
areas excessive rainfall resulting in flash flooding of arroyos
and small streams. A flash flood watch has already been issued and
will continue through the overnight hours for Culberson and Eddy
counties.

On Monday, weak southwesterly flow aloft develops as low presently
over southwest New Mexico pulls northeastward, dragging a weak upper
trough into southeast New Mexico. With a coincident surface trough
providing low level convergence into the plains of southeast New
Mexico, expect to see an increased chance of thunderstorms over that
area Monday afternoon and evening while deep moisture and daytime
heating will provide for continuing scattered thunderstorm activity
over the mountains. Elevated precipitable water values again
suggest the potential for locally heavy rain.

By Tuesday afternoon, upper ridge will build from northern Mexico
through central New Mexico bringing northwest upper flow which will
help push a weak cold front into the area. Though NAM model
previously lagged other models with respect to frontal progress,
operational models now somewhat consistent bringing front into the
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico by late afternoon.
Timing of front during maximum heating will help boost thunderstorm
chances across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin.

In wake of front, will expect temperatures to drop slightly below
seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday, though warmer temperatures
will return for the week`s end as weak ridging develops aloft. A
moist south to southeast surface flow will help keep isolated to
scattered thunderstorms in the forecast. Better chances will be in
the mountain areas where upslope flow will provide lift.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       68  90  69  94 /  60  30  10  20
Dryden                         73  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  94  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 64  82  65  83 /  60  40  10  30
Hobbs                          67  88  68  90 /  30  20  10  30
Marfa                          62  88  63  87 /  40  30  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           72  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  20
Odessa                         71  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  20
Wink                           70  95  72  96 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

84/05



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