Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210354
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
954 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Latest sfc obs show the cold front has made it thru KMAF and KHOB,
and should be thru other terminals by 12Z or sooner. Observations
upstream of the front show a deck of MVFR stratus following, w/forecast
soundings and moisture progs bringing these cigs into the Texas
terminals overnight and Wed morning. Whether preceip materializes
out of all this is still in question, w/the NAM breaking out
-FRZA/IP Tx terminals, and the GFS keeping everything east. For
 now, we`ll insert a mention of -FZRA KMAF, and -RA KFST/KINK. MVFR-
 LIFR cigs will redevelop KMAF/KHOB by the end of the forecast
 period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 133 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Today there is a strong upper trough extending from the Northern
Rockies down through the Great Basin while an upper ridge remains
centered off FL Atlantic coast.  This has resulted in SW flow aloft
over the region.  This trough will continue to dig over the West
before swinging east early Saturday.

At the surface a strong cold front is pushing through the South
Plains.  This front will bring much colder temperatures and a chance
of mixed precipitation to the area.  As of 19z the front appears to
be located from Portales to Lubbock.  The front should be into the
northern CWA by late afternoon/early evening and will quickly push
through the area overnight.  Have bumped up wind speeds tonight. The
dryline has pushed through the area ahead of it with dewpts mainly
in the 30s behind it... not expecting much increase in low level
moisture till sometime Thursday.

Temperatures tonight will fall below freezing across the Permian
Basin... portions of SE NM and the Marfa Plateau.  Have stayed to
the colder MET guidance and have cooled the low temperatures
tonight... the high temps on Wednesday... and lows Wednesday night.
Wednesday should be cold and cloudy as low clouds build in behind
the front and may push to the mountains... cold air advection will
will also continue through the day.  Highs Wednesday will range from
the 30s across much of the Permian Basin and portions of SE NM...
40s for the Trans Pecos... 50s and 60s from Van Horn and Marfa to
Sanderson... to 70s along the Rio Grande.  Wednesday night much of
the area will fall below freezing.  Warmer Thursday as 50s and 60s
return to much of the region.  The warm up will continue into next
week.

With the colder temps expected have moved up the time of possible
mix of rain/freezing rain to late tonight/early Wednesday morning
for portion of the Permian Basin.  Wednesday looks to be the best
chance of precipitation with a mix possible again especially during
the morning across all of the Permian Basin. I have also started to
scale back pops Wednesday night and Thursday but some form of
freezing precip possible through Thursday morning.  Will highlight
travel concerns in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     27  33  27  48 /  20  50  20  30
Carlsbad                       35  42  25  56 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         46  54  35  59 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  35  43  30  59 /  10  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  45  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          26  34  23  52 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          32  58  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  34  27  51 /  10  40  10  20
Odessa                         31  35  27  51 /  10  30  10  10
Wink                           33  39  27  57 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44



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