Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191035
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, except
KMAF, which could see MVFR cigs near the end of the forecast
period. Otherwise, a widespread cu field should develop by late
morning, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Convection will be possible, mainly
SE NM. Nocturnal LLJ will keep winds up Thu night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:30 AM CDT Thursday...Both WV and IR imagery
are showing a series of weak low latitude shortwaves moving east
along the International border. A vort max is seen just to the
SW of El Paso moving ENE.

As the weak shortwaves pass across the area the vort max near El
Paso will swing NE into SE New Mexico. Best chances of
thunderstorms today will be over the Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent
Plains per the high resolution HRRR. Have extended isolated
thunderstorms east into the central PB. SPC has the extreme
western CWA in a Marginal Risk due to better instability (MUCAPE
up to 1100 J with little CIN) and weak bulk shear. Weak west
winds over low level south winds could lead to a couple of strong
storms. Increasing nocturnal LLJ will help propagate the chances
of thunderstorms east...but the best chances will remain in the
western CWA with the best dynamics and instability. As the
shortwaves move east Friday should be mainly dry with above normal
temps (normal is 75 for MAF)...however kept a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the east.

A strong trof will move in from the Pacific NW into the Plains
over the weekend. Saturday will dry and warm (10-15 degrees above
normal) as the thermal ridge sets up over the CWA. As the trof
passes east a "cold" front will drop south on Sunday with temps
cooling to near normal. There could be some thunderstorms in the
eastern CWA Sat night if there is enough moisture return...however
the main action will be to the north and east of the CWA where
there could be vigorous convection from NE Texas into Oklahoma.

Next week can be summed up in one word - dry. Ridging will build
strongly in the Western US with NW flow aloft over the CWA. Monday
will warm up to above normal. A weak shortwave will drop another
so-called cold front into the CWA Tuesday. The front will be
moisture starved so no rain (or even much in the way of clouds) is
expected. Temps will drop to near normal Tue/Wed before warming
up to above normal by next Thursday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  62  79  64 /  10  10  20   0
Carlsbad                       75  55  85  58 /  40  40  10   0
Dryden                         77  63  80  63 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Stockton                  79  60  86  62 /  10  30  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  56  80  58 /  30  40  10   0
Hobbs                          74  55  79  56 /  20  40  10   0
Marfa                          81  51  82  53 /  10  40  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  62  81  63 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                         75  62  80  62 /  10  20  10   0
Wink                           78  58  84  59 /  10  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/33/44


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