Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 280000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
700 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

KMAF radar shows convection persisting a little longer than
previously anticipated, as triple-digit temps carry over into the
1st period. We`ll do a quick update to expand isolated coverage
into the evening hours, and update other parameters as necessary.
Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

There`s been little change in forecast reasoning with models
continuing to support a transitory substropical ridge over the
next few days, i.e., INVOF OK today-Wed and in the 4 Corners
region Fri/Sat. Convection in this pattern will again be mostly
favored in mtns/adjacent plains, but noticing some subtlies like
secondary mid level theta-e ridge axes and theta-e gradients may
help placement of PoPs. Today we expect an uptick in the mtns from
yesterday where theta-e gradient is in alignment with mtns, a few
high based showers are briefly possible across the PB and PoPs
will trend down Tue-Thu. We`re still keying in on the cooling
trend seen in the 1000-500mb thickness and 7h temps. Recently 7h
temps have been around 14C on 00Z MAF sounding with deterministic
model consensus that 7h temps will decrease to around 11C by
00Z/Fri which would yield high temps about 4-6 degrees cooler than
yesterday/today for most areas by Thur PM. There`s a better chance
of precip across the PB Sat/Sun with the NW position of the ridge,
even seen on DGEX. Subtropical ridge will attempt to move back ewd
late in the forecast which would start temps trending back up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  78 100  76  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    75 102  72 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 102  76  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               75 100  73  99  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              71  92  69  90  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                       73  99  71  96  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       63  90  63  89  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        76 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76 100  75  98  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        77 103  76 100  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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