Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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838
FXUS64 KMEG 011132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN ANYTHING THAT WARRANTS THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALLEST NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
KENTUCKY STATE LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND
UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING IF NEEDED. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW
60S BY SUNRISE. THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT...BUT AS OF 3 AM...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN. SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS...SUGGESTS THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING KENNETT MISSOURI AND WYNNE ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STALL LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY...IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
PROVIDING A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL LIKELY RETURN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE OUR
LAST DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

SYNOPTICALLY...WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD TOP OUT ON THE LOW 70S...AND MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S
IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE
40S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

30


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT ALL BUT KJBR
WHERE WINDS ARE WEST NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 8 KTS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS CIGS LOWER LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH VCSH INCLUDED AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION UNDER SW
FLOW ALOFT.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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