Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 280805
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
305 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite trends this morning place an
upper level low centered near Green Bay, Wisconsin. Meanwhile, at
the surface a cold front is located from Lower Michigan back
through Central Illinois and Southern Iowa. Clear skies have
prevailed overnight with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT
ranging from the upper 40s to lower/middle 50s across much of the
Mid- South.

Short term models remain in fairly decent agreement overall as an
upper level low over Northern Lake Michigan begins to gradually drop
south towards the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned cold front
located across the Upper Midwest will drop south into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later this afternoon into tonight. Highs this
afternoon will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s north of
I-40 and lower to perhaps middle 80s south. Isolated rain showers
are possible across far Northwest Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. Otherwise, the best rain chances should remain mostly
upstream of the forecast area.

A reinforcement of cool Canadian air will filter in behind this
cold front with lows tonight dropping back into the 50s. The upper
level low is anticipated to be located over portions of Kentucky
and the Tennessee Valley Thursday and Friday. This will bring
a potential for isolated to scattered rain showers to portions of
the Mid-South, especially across Northwest Tennessee and areas
near the Tennessee River as shortwave troughs rotate around this
upper level low. Cloud cover should result in below normal
temperatures across the above mentioned area during this period.

Long term models this morning indicate this upper level low will
gradually migrate northeast towards the Eastern Great Lakes by the
end of the upcoming weekend as an upper level ridge in the Rockies
moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and thunderstorm
chances may return towards the middle of next week as and upper
level trough and associated cold front move through the region.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail. Light winds and clear skies
expected overnight. A reinforcing dry cold front will move through
on Wednesday with winds shifting from the southwest to the
northwest and becoming gusty. Winds will diminish Wednesday
evening.

SJM


&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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