Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 260445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1145 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Updated for 06z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 840 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/


Updated to add late night and early morning fog.


Upper level ridging is currently building down from the northeast
as an upper low drops south across the central Gulf Coast. Surface
high pressure over the region will keep mostly clear skies and
light winds through the remainder of the night. This should
support the development of fog again late tonight across the
eastern half of the region.

Warm and humid conditions will also continue through the night.
The forecast products have been updated and sent out.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

Cooler temps appear on track for the latter part of the week,
followed by a warm-up early next week.

A persistent upper ridge over the southeast US will retrograde
to TX by Thursday, as an upper low drops into the Great Lakes and
the central Appalachians. Low level winds over the Midsouth will
back to northeast on Wednesday, before a reinforcing cold front
brings cooler and drier air on Thursday.

Autumn-like conditions will be short-lived, as the northern branch
low exits the mid-Atlantic seaboard, allowing heights to begin to
build in its wake as early as Saturday. Thereafter, the upper
ridge center will build from Texas into the Midsouth during the
early to middle portion of next week.

The 12Z ECMWF exhibited a marked departure from the 00Z run,
which depicted a cut-off upper low over the Midsouth. The 12Z
ECMWF was instead the warmest and driest of the 12Z model
consensus, depicting a 595dm 500mb height ridge over Arkansas
Tuesday afternoon. 12Z model blend retains earlier cooler
outliers of the ECMWF. With this in mind, have bumped up temps for
days 7 and 8 above the blended guidance. 90+ degree temperatures
not out of the question early to middle part of next week.



06Z TAFs

No real changes from 00z thinking. Confident that overnight/early
morning fog will drop conditions to MVFR at TUP...and borderline
LIFR/VLIFR at MKL. Otherwise conditions will be VFR at all sites.
Winds will be calm or light with an east or northeast component.




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