Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 020532
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY GOOD THIS EVENING. THE ONLY
UPDATE MADE WAS TO ADD FREEZING DRIZZLE TO NORTHERN ZONES AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER. OTHERWISE...INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
WEAK UPGLIDE PERSISTS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THE 0 DEGREE
ISOTHERM EVOLVES THIS EVENING BUT BELIEVE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE FREEZING PRECIP HANDLED VERY WELL.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE REMAINED
NEARLY STEADY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S PREVALENT ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND LOWER 40S TO LOWER/MIDDLE
50S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES COOL LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE LIMITED. CONFIDENCE ISN/T PARTICULARLY HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
MOMENT TO CONSIDER HEADLINES BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AND ASSESS THE NEED FOR ONE IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY
BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-40. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND
KEPT OVERALL THUNDERSTORMS TO MINIMAL MENTION. CONFIDENCE IN
STRONG/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ALSO. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF
I-40.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER
OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM/CANADIAN BEING SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM
SIDE. OPTED TO USE THE ECMWF AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT SEEMS TO
BE BLENDING THE SOLUTIONS THE BEST AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE EXPECTED INCLUDING RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS MOMENT DUE TO
MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MAY BE
FORTHCOMING IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. STAY TUNED...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

DRIER AIR HAD WORKED DOWN THE NORTH INTO JBR THIS EVENING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE SOUTHWARD CATEGORY
IMPROVEMENT WILL SLOW AND POSSIBLY TOP WITH CIGS PREVAILING NEAR
THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT MEM TOWARD SUNRISE.

FOR THE DAYTIME MONDAY PERIODS...WENT SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN LAMP GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AT ALL BUT TUP. CIGS WILL
THEN LIKELY DROP BACK TO IFR MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE APPROACH OF
A MARINE LAYER WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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