Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 021458
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...

IT IS A WARM...MUGGY EARLY OCTOBER DAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A
CLUSTER OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PULL A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW
90 DEGREES. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING OF A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

JPM3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

A TRICKY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BUT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MODELS INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
6AM-9AM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS SHOULD START POPPING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY 8 AM. BY 11AM-1PM...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
GFS..NAM...AND ECMWF SEEM TO FALL IN LINE IN WHAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
ALL THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
HIGHS TODAY A TAD. DON/T REALLY SEE ANY LOCATION HITTING 90 TODAY.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT STRETCHING FROM TULSA
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ABILENE TEXAS AROUND 2 PM. THE LINE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE LINE WILL LIKELY OUTRACE THE FRONT BY THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MIDSOUTH...IT MAY ENCOUNTER AN
ATMOSPHERE AT LEAST SLIGHT WORKED OVER FROM CONVECTION THAT WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT A FEW DAYS
AGO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CAPE VALUES MAY GET TO 1500 J/KG WHICH IS
STILL DECENT BUT NOT LIKE 2200 J/KG OR GREATER THAT THE NAM HAS
BEEN SHOWING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
TIMING. LINE MAY NOT GET INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL CLOSER TO
9-10 PM. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING FROM LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STILL EXPECT EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS BUT REALLY EXPECT
LINE TO START WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST ESPECIALLY ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAIN THREAT FROM THE LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SINCE TIMING IS SLOWER HAVE HAD TO UPDATE POPS FOR FRIDAY TO KEEP
THEM IN LONGER. NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK INTO
THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF INDICATES FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS TIMING OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DON/T REALLY
EXPECT ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BACK
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.

KRM

AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 02/13Z AND 02Z/17Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AFTER 02Z/17Z CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AFTER 03/03Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS

WINDS S-SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS AT
KJBR. WINDS AFTER 03/00Z S 7-10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE BUT JBR
MAY SHIFT 03/08Z MEM 03/09Z...AND MKL 03/10Z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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