Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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516
FXUS64 KMEG 161103
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
503 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

09Z Surface analysis places a warm front over portions of
Northern Alabama, Central Mississippi, and Southern Arkansas with
a surface low centered over North Central Oklahoma. North of the
warm front, light winds and ample low level moisture has resulted
in fog occasionally forming since last evening with the lowest
visibilities being most persistent mainly west of the Mississippi
River. Water Vapor Satellite trends indicate an upper level low
centered near the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle with a shortwave trough
rotating around the low producing rain showers over the western
half of Arkansas early this morning. As of 3 AM CST, temperatures
across the Mid South are predominantly in the 40s to lower 50s at
most locations.

A surface low in Oklahoma this morning will move northeast
towards Northern Missouri by tonight. This will result in the warm
front moving back north across the Mid-South today. Until this
front moves north across the area, fog including the potential
for dense fog may persist across portions of the area this
morning. Some adjustments to the Dense Fog Advisory may be needed
in the next few hours but will hold off on any changes at this
time with the variable visibilities that have been occurring.

Regional WSR-88D radar trends, short term models including the
HRRR suggest rain chances will gradually increase across areas
along and west of the Mississippi River into this afternoon.
Warmer and moderating surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s
will spread into the area later today. Mixed layer CAPE values
increasing to around 500-600 J/kg by late afternoon into this
evening along with 0-6 km Bulk shear increasing to around 50 kts
may result in a strong thunderstorm or two late this afternoon
into this evening. This may result in a few sub-severe wind gusts
mainly along and west of the Mississippi River. Highs this
afternoon are expected to be in the 60s across Northeast Arkansas
and far Northwest Tennessee, and lower 70s elsewhere.

A trailing cold front will gradually move through the Mid-South
later tonight into the day on Tuesday with shower and thunderstorm
chances gradually shifting southeast towards North Mississippi by
Tuesday afternoon. This front is expected to gradually become
quasi-stationary over Northern Alabama and Central/Southern
Mississippi by Wednesday with a potential for rain chances to
persist south of I-40 during this time frame. This front will
return back north as a warm front by Thursday as a surface low
develops in the Southern Plains and moves into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Increasing instability and favorable shear may
result in a few strong thunderstorms to perhaps a severe
thunderstorm mainly across northeast Mississippi Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night as a negatively tilted upper level
trough moves through the region. This convective potential will
continued to be monitored and adjusted in subsequent forecasts if
model trends suggest a better potential for strong/severe
thunderstorms.

Long term models indicate another surface/upper level low and
associated cold front will move through the region towards the
latter half of the upcoming weekend into early next week,
bringing yet additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF Set

A warm front remains located across North Mississippi. Expect the
front will begin surging northward this morning. Meanwhile, a
large area of showers ahead of the approaching cold front is
located across Central and Western Arkansas. The showers will
spread into KJBR around 13Z while KMEM and KMKL will see activity
by mid-late morning. VSBYS could decrease with the showers
temporarily as well as low CIGS. After showers push through,
expect VFR conditions until a line of SHRA/TSRAs that is expected
to redevelop along the cold front begins to push into the area
around 00Z. Models are indicating the line may stall out near a
KMKL to KMEM line thus have prevailing 2SM SHRAS with VCTS wording
for the remainder of the TAF period for those TAF sites beginning
at 01-02Z. The line should push east of KJBR around 07Z and
should stay west of KTUP before the end of the TAF period. Light
easterly winds will become southeasterly behind the warm front.
Once morning showers clear, expect winds to pick up from the south
with gusts possibly up to 15 KTS. The gusty southerly winds may
continue into the evening hours as well.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Clay-
     Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-
     Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Dyer-Lake-
     Lauderdale-Obion-Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$



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