Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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840
FXUS62 KMHX 060900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. A MAJOR LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...CLEAR AND CHILLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST
LOCALES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER
30S/NEAR 40 OBX.

QUIET WX TODAY AS E NC WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ON PAR WITH MOS GUID VALUES IN MAX TEMPS IN THE 45-50
DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST NORTHEAST. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE AN INC IN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS WAA ALOFT
DEVELOPS INVOF NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT E
NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...COMPACT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE
SWINGING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. INCREASING PVA ALOFT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
AROUND 08Z AS LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE. NEAR SFC WET BULB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE CRITICAL 1.5 DEGREE RANGE...SUFFICIENTLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES. ATTM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMS AS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO 40S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. SURFACE
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY. CURRENT WATCHES IN
EFFECT STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND SINCE A WARNING WOULD BE THE 3RD
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL LET DAY SHIFT UPGRADE. THE LOW WILL BE
A QUICK MOVER WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AND ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY EVENING. QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE A
FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR RAIN SO KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY
AND CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND
COOL WITH LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FRIDAY AS TROF LIFTS OUT AND UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 101 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD. EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME
RADIATION BR AT KOAJ/KPGV AS T-TD SPREADS NEAR 0 CURRENTLY AND
CALM WINDS. MAINLY SKC SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY AS NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N-NE THROUGH THE TAF PD.

LONG TERM /SUN THROUGH WED/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
SUB-VFR IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15-25
KNOTS. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. DRY/VFR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY...WEST
15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...LINGERING 6+ FOOT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE N WATERS THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL LINGER ABOVE 6 FT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. N WINDS 10-15 KTS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OFF THE FL COASTLINE. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY PRES GRADIENT TO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND...WITH WINDS INCREASING
INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FEET BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS...AND UP TO 6 FT FOR THE
NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUN THROUGH WED/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST...WITH WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND/OR ROUGH SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON
THE RIVERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A FAST-MOVING FRONT MONDAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SUNDAY WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BACK FURTHER TO WEST THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF
THE NC COAST WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET
COUNTY (INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF
HATTERAS ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE WATER LEVELS OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SHORE BREAK IN EXCESS
OF 10 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO BEACH EROSION AND
SOME OCEAN OVERWASH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ135-152-154.
     GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ156-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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