Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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169
FXUS62 KMHX 170553
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1253 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue over the region through Sunday
morning then slide offshore later Sunday through early next
week. A complex frontal system and low pressure area will
affect the area by mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1250 AM Sunday...Some very patchy high clouds across the
region, otherwise mostly clear and cold once again as axis of
surface ridge across the eastern Carolinas. Lows will drop into
the 20s over most of the CWA with perhaps a few lower 30s along
the Outer Banks. Minimal changes to current forecast at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Saturday...High pres will slowly slide to the SE
as dampening short wave approaches from the W. Increasing
mid/high clouds thru the day...however lower lvls remain dry so
not expecting any late day showers. Despite increasing clouds
shld see seasonal highs in the 55 to 60 dgr range as low lvl
thicknesses increase a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sat...Update...Removed majority of pops Sun night
thru Tue as models show little if any QPF over region as
dampening short wave crosses. Still some uncertainty on timing
of precip mid week...however mdl trends are starting to signal
higher threat of rain espcly centered around later Wed/Wed night
so bumped up pops to high chc or likely these times.

Prev disc...Weak ridging builds into the area this weekend
through early next week followed by a complex system moving into
the region mid to late week.

Sunday night through Tuesday night...A slightly better chance
of rain expected early next week, though 16/00Z global model
suite has backed off on strength of this shortwave as it dampens
moving towards the East Coast from the MS River Valley. Have
lowered POP`s to around 20 percent for the area through this
time frame. Temps expected to be above normal this period with
predominant SW to W flow across the region with highs generally
in the 60s, warmest day on Tuesday where some places may reach
70. Lows will be mild in the 40s inland to around 50 coast.

Wednesday through Thursday...Have raised POP`s this time frame.
Tricky forecast for the mid week period, as timing of a
southern stream system ejecting out of the SW CONUS could bring
a good shot of rain across the region mid week. 16/00Z
operational ECMWF/CMC/GFS all have the compact shortwave and
attendant sfc low moving through the SE CONUS Wednesday or
Thursday. Taking a look at the ensemble suite for this system
however, still indicates quite a bit of uncertainty with timing
and strength of this feature. Also, would like to see more run-
to-run continuity amongst models before raising POP`s any
higher than low chance at this time. Temps during this period
will remain above climo as heights/thicknesses will be above
normal for late December.

Friday...It appears that the potential mid week system will be
offshore by late in the work week, and behind it there is a
fairly good signal that heights/thicknesses rise and warmer and
drier pattern takes hold temporarily with building SW Atlantic
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Monday/...
As of 1250 AM Sunday...A few patches of high clouds may impact
the area from time to time tonight, with increased mid/high
level clouds during the day Sunday into Sunday night. High
confidence of VFR conditions continuing. Cannot rule out some
brief patchy steam fog at mainly KPGV late tonight but not
supported by majority of guidance indicating 2-3 degree temp/dew
point spread, thus no mention in forecast.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Sat...High pressure builds into the region over the
weekend but will see increasing clouds Sun in advance of the
next system approaching the region. Rain chances however will be
very low as this system will be quite weak. A better chance of
rain and sub VFR expected by mid week as potential stronger
system moves into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Sunday/...
As of 1250 AM Sunday...Axis of surface ridge will linger over
the eastern Carolinas overnight into Sunday. Expect generally
SW/W winds at 10 knots or less, except a few higher gusts over
the central waters tonight. Seas should remain 1-3 feet through
the day Sunday.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Winds will be generally SW Sunday Night through
Tue as zonal flow takes hold. Good boating conditions as the
winds will only be in the 5-15 kt range through the period with
generally 1-3 ft seas. Winds increase to 10-20 kt Tue night
ahead of a potential stronger system that moves through mid
week. Seas will increase to 2-4 ft with locally higher seas by
Tue night into Wed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF/TL
AVIATION...CTC/JBM/TL
MARINE...CTC/JBM/TL



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