Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230228
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
928 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north into the region tonight with low
pressure moving east across the area Monday. High pressure will
build into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front with
limited moisture will move through the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 925 PM Sun...Still rather stable over the region with
warm front suppressed to the S. Appears severe threat is waning
espcly inland as looks like very little if any instab will make
it into region. Will cont with slight chc tsra inland to chc cst
thru late tonight per strong forcing. Still cant rule out
severe threat imd cst where some instab may move onshore as warm
front lifts into area. Shra will grad taper off from W to E
late tonight as deeper moisture slides to the E. Will cont cat
pops all areas with lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sun...The upper and surface lows are forecast to
traverse the region Monday which will lead to showers developing
especially during the afternoon and evening. Will ramp up PoPs
to likely Monday afternoon then taper off them off after
midnight Monday night with most precipitation ended by 09Z
Tuesday except maybe for the Outer Banks where a lingering
shower could occur early Tuesday. Highs Monday will be in the
60s and lows Monday night in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 pm Sun...Did not make any significant changes to the
extended with this update as latest model runs remain in generally
good agreement. High pressure will build in from the southwest
Tuesday and pass to the south Wednesday with upper ridging bringing
increasing temperatures. Expect highs on Tuesday around 60 and in
the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday.

A weak cold front will pass through Thursday morning. Forecast
soundings show best available moisture confined to below 800 mb.
Made no change to current 30% PoP. The fast movement of the front
will keep rain amounts to only a hundredth or two of an inch. Will
still have a mild day on Thursday with highs reaching the lower 60s
before cooler air filters in behind the front. Lows Thursday Night
will dip into the mid 30s inland to lower 40s on the coast.

Expect dry weather Friday through Sunday. Deep westerly flow across
the region with upper trof over much of the eastern US and a surface
ridge to the south and west. Temperatures through that period will
be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 615 PM Sun...Generally poor flying conditions expected
for the terminals through Monday morning. Most sites have
lifted to MVFR early this evening however expected to come back
down later this evening as rain increases ahead of developing
warm front. Widespread mostly IFR late evening thru late
tonight with shra and sct TSRA some poss strong/svr closer to
cst then shld see conditions improve a bit from S to N late as
drier air works in. Break in precip thru most of Mon morn with
VFR then as upr low crosses in aftn more shra and poss sub VFR.


Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Monday night through Wednesday will be mostly
dry with VFR conditions. The next chance of showers is late
Wednesday Night into Thursday, but amounts will be very light so
MVFR conditions expected. It will be dry with predominate VFR
conditions for the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 925 PM Sun...No changes with current light winds becoming
SSW most waters and increasing outer waters.

Prev disc...SCA`s remain in effect for the coastal waters.
Winds currently variable around 10 kt and will continue light
into the evening hours. Then as a warm front begins to lift
north into the waters, the flow will become SE/S and increase to
25 kt south of Oregon Inlet after midnight. A few hours of
gales are certainly possible for the southern/central waters
though will be short lived and will not issue any gale headlines
at this time. Winds will veer to the S/SW Monday and diminish
slightly to 10 to 20 kt. Current seas 3 to 5 ft will build late
tonight and early Monday to 8-11 feet. Seas will remain elevated
while gradually subsiding to 5 to 8 ft Monday afternoon.

Long Term /Mon night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Northwest flow on Tuesday will begin 20 to 25
KT across the waters, highest in the central outer coastal
waters. Seas will begin in the 7 to 10 foot range in the coastal
waters. Winds and seas will diminish through the day and
overnight hours becoming west to northwest at 10 to 15 KT by
Wednesday Morning with seas subsiding to 3 to 5 feet.

Winds will become southwest on Wednesday and increase again ahead of
an approaching cold front. By Wednesday Afternoon southwest winds of
20 to 25 KT will be possible, and these strong winds will continue
Wednesday Night. Wave heights will build back to 6 to 8 feet.

A cold front moves through the waters on Thursday with winds turning
west to northwest Thursday Night through Friday generally in the 15
to 20 KT range. wave heights Thursday will be 4 to 6 feet
subsiding to 3 to 5 feet Thursday Night through Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Tuesday night for
     AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/RF/CQD
MARINE...RSB/RF/JME


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