Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 250445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE EAST
COAST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL YIELD
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM SUN...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AND KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL
HELP SQUEEZE THE UPPER RIDGE AS ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MODELS HINTING AT PRECIP TEASING WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAIN EFFECTS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. S/SE WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FEW/SCT CU EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 202 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH
FOG AND/OR STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SHOW SE/S WINDS
5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY LATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-3 FEET. WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY BUT SPEEDS STILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS ONLY
AROUND 2 FEET PER LOCAL SWAN/NWPS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 158 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
EXPECTED AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE. GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/CQD/DAG/BM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CTC/CQD/DAG/BM


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