Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1231 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

High pressure will move offshore Monday and remain over the
Western Atlantic through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the
region Thursday morning. High pressure will build in behind the
front through next weekend.


As of 1230 AM Mon...Current forecast in good shape; only minor
tweak to T grid. High pressure will crest over the area
tonight. Temps have fallen into the 30s inland to 40s along the
coast with light/calm winds allowing for excellent radiational
cooling. Lows expected to bottom out 28-32 away from the
beaches. Given the above normal temps the past few weeks, the
"growing season" has likely begun earlier than normal. Sensitive
vegetation could be vulnerable to the freezing conditions. Some
cirrus may begin to stream through late as high shifts eastward
and shortwave approaches from the west.


As of 3 PM Sun...High will be settled offshore on Monday
allowing for WAA regime. Temps will climb into the 65-70 degree
range for highs with 60-65 on the OBX. Increasing convergence on
the coast expected as winds remain NE on Pamlico sound but veer
to SE over the coastal waters. This will promote some iso/sct
shower development along the coastal counties with best chances
along the OBX. Have added 20-30 pops to account for this. Once
away from the coast TD`s drop dramatically so not expecting any
precip across the interior. Otherwise, increasing mid and high
clouds expected through the day Monday.


As of 245 PM Sunday...Warm but unsettled weather is expected
across the region through early Thursday followed by a period of
dry and seasonably cool weather Friday and Saturday and dry and
warmer conditions next Sunday. The models continue to have
differences and lack of run to run consistency for the Monday
night through Tuesday night period making for a low confidence
forecast regarding precipitation chances and amounts. There is
much higher confidence that temperatures will be above normal
through Wednesday.

Monday night through Tuesday night...A warm front like feature
will move north across the area Monday in response to high
pressure shifting off of the coast with southerly flow then
becoming established across the area through mid week. This
will result in warm temperatures with lows in the 50s Monday
night, highs in the 70s Tuesday and lows in the 60s Tuesday
night. The precipitation forecast is more problematic though as
guidance has not yet arrived on a consensus on timing, location
and amounts of precipitation during this period. Thus best
course of action was to broadbrush 20% PoPs and forecast very
light QPF amounts until guidance arrives at a better resolution.

Wednesday...Guidance is good agreement that record warmth will
be possible with highs in the 80s as brisk southerly flow
prevails. Not expecting any significant precipitation although
an isolated shower can`t be ruled out. Some fire weather
concerns due to the warmth and expected strong winds but
forecast relative humidities are in the mid 50s which is well
above Red Flag criteria.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...A strong cold front
will move across the region late Wednesday night or Thursday
morning. The CMC was a compromise between the faster GFS and
slower ECMWF models and will place the front along the coast
around 12Z Thursday. This would bring the best chance of rain to
the area Wednesday night with drying and slightly cooler
conditions expected Thursday afternoon. Mild lows in the 50s are
expected Wednesday night and continued mild but cooler Thursday
with highs in the mid 60s. Colder air begins to be felt
Thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Sunday...The models are actually in better
agreement during this period then in the early portion of the
medium range forecast. A dry secondary cold cold front will
cross the area Friday with highs 55 to 60 expected then high
pressure with seasonably cool and dry air will prevail across
the region through Saturday night. Low temperatures Friday
night are forecast to reach the lower to mid 30s and this could
be a concern for any sensitive vegetation that may have
prematurely started due to the abnormal warmth of the past
couple of weeks. Highs Saturday will be in the 50s. and lows
Sunday night in the mid to upper 30s. Dry weather is forecast to
continue Sunday but with some moderation in temperatures into
the 60s as the high center moves offshore and return SW flow
redevelops across the area.


Short term /through 18Z Monday/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...High confidence in VFR conditions through
the TAF period. A dry airmass is over the area, inhibiting fog
development and providing mostly clear skies. High clouds will
start to filter in by morning. Some low stratus clouds will
move in from the coastal waters during the afternoon and effect
both KEWN/KOAJ...clouds will remain above 3kft. The surface
ridge will shift off the Delmarva Peninsula on later today,
allowing winds to become southeast for most of the day.

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 245 PM Sun...Due to uncertainties regarding the
precipitation forecast, the aviation medium range outlook is a
low confidence forecast through Tuesday night although periods
of sub VFR conditions are possible especially in showers. The
next best chance of rain and sub VFR conditions will occur
Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the area. VFR
conditions are expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday
as high pressure builds into the area.


Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...Latest buoy obs are showing light and
variable winds over the coastal waters and seas 2-3 ft. High
pressure will crest over the waters tonight. Variable winds
generally around 10 kt or less across the waters with seas 2-4
feet late this evening. High will shift offshore on Monday with
weak coastal trough developing. Winds remain NE most of the day
across the Pamlico sound though veer SE across the outer waters
in vcnty of the Gulf Stream. This will promote sct showers by
late morning through afternoon across the waters and Pamlico
Sound. Seas will remain in the 2-4 foot range though the day Mon
with winds 5-15 kt.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 245 PM Sun...Rough marine conditions with gusty winds and
elevated seas are expected for much of the period. Moderate
SE/S flow of 15 to 20 kt is expected through Tuesday. There is
some potential for seas to reach 6 ft late Tuesday but the wave
models were consistent in indicating 3-5 ft seas. The southerly
winds increase to 20 to 25 kt Tuesday night and 25 to 30 kt
/with a low end Gale possible/ Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night with seas of 7 to 11 ft. Winds shift to NW 15 to 20 kt
behind the front Thursday morning and diminish to W/NW 10 to 15
kt Thu afternoon and night behind the initial cold front. A
secondary cold front is forecast to cross the waters Friday
afternoon with the flow becoming NW and increasing to 20 to 25
kt. Seas will briefly subside below 6 ft Thursday night then
build back to 4 to 7 ft Friday afternoon.




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