Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 261523
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1123 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Maria is expected to track slowly off the North
Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front will cross the
area late in the week. Please see the latest official forecasts
from the National Hurricane Center and local NWS offices.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1130 AM Tuesday...No significant changes with update.

/Previous discussion/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Hurricane Maria about 225 miles SE of
Cape Hatteras and moving slowly north. Tropical Storm Warnings
continue for most of our eastern counties: Carteret, Craven,
Pamlico, Tyrrell, Outer Banks Dare and Hyde, Mainland Dare and
Hyde. Please see HLSMHX for additional details.

Moist N-NE flow under lowering inversion resulting in widespread
low cloudiness across eastern NC with main band or showers
remaining just offshore. Guidance does support clouds gradually
lifting with heating during the days but generally remaining
cloudy to mostly cloudy. Models in good agreement that offshore
showers will gradually spread in along coast this morning with
additional scattered development possible inland as well, thus
increased POPs to categorical for coastal sections from Cape
Lookout to Oregon Inlet and likely east of Hwy 17. Kept precip
wording as just showers as atmosphere not support of tstms.

Winds expected to increase during the day due to large wind
field around Maria, and sustained Tropical Storm force winds
likely for Outer Banks and downeast Carteret County by late
afternoon and gusts to 40 MPH possible rest of TS Warning area.

Max temps from mid 70s Outer Banks to lower 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Slowly weakening Maria will make closest
approach to area overnight with forecast position about 150
miles east of Cape Hatteras early Wednesday morning. Broad wind
field expected to produce Tropical Storm conditions for areas
mainly along and east of Columbia-New Bern-Cape Carteret line,
with Storm Surge potential of 2 to 4 feet. See HLS for details.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Long term period will feature continuing
moderate coastal impacts through mid week as Maria slowly moves
north off the NC coast, then high pres builds in bringing fall-
like pleasant weather with cooler and drier conditions for late
week into the weekend.

Wednesday into Thursday...Tropical storm force winds will be
ongoing across the OBX for Wednesday, with moderate coastal
impacts continuing due to the slow northward movement of Maria
off the NC coast. The slow moving nature of this system will
prolong and possibly enhance the impacts that Eastern NC does
receive. At this time, the greatest impacts are expected to be
associated with the large surf impacting the coast and
significant beach erosion is likely with ocean overwash probable
in typically flood-prone areas around times of high tide
through Wednesday and likely persisting into Thursday. Highway
12 along the Outer Banks could be greatly impacted and may
become impassable at times, especially along Pea Island. Coastal
flooding along the southern Pamlico Sound is also possible but
the degree of flooding remains dependent upon how close Maria
gets before recurving out to sea. The key driver for amount of
inundation from storm surge will be the duration and magnitude
of the northerly winds across the region. The soundside of the
Outer Banks from Buxton to Ocracoke, and possibly Downeast
Carteret County, look to be the most vulnerable locations for
sound side flooding at this time.

Occasional rain showers will continue to pivot in from the east
affecting mainly coastal locales on Wednesday, then mainly dry
Thur as Maria begins her eastward movement well away from NC. It
will be quite warm with thicknesses around 1410M suggesting
highs in the mid/upr 80 both Wed and Thu.

Friday through Monday...Pleasant conditions expected as dry high
pres builds in from the north behind shortwave trough. Highs
expected in the 70s, with lows in the 50s interior to low 60s
coast. Could be a small threat for some coastal showers
advecting in off the Atlantic by late weekend to early next
week, though will advertise no higher than 20 pop attm.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through 12Z Wednesday/...
As of 1130 AM Tuesday...MVFR expected to persist through the
period but only moderate confidence for tonight as some guidance
indicates repeat of IFR CIGs again. Scattered mainly light
showers possible through period with higher chances at KEWN and
KOAJ. North winds 10-20 KT will gust up to 30 KT this afternoon
and evening.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Main concern is gusty northerly winds 20 to 30 mph
continuing on Wednesday, though cigs look to improve to mainly
VFR with ocnl MVFR/IFR still possible esp for KEWN and KOAJ.
Quiet weather and good flying conditions expected Thur into the
weekend as high pres will be in control with generally N to NE
winds 5-15 mph.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Tuesday...No changes with update. Forecast on
track.

/Previous discussion/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect
for the coastal waters, sounds and Neuse/Bay Rivers. SCA in
effect for the Pamlico/Pungo Rivers. Building seas and
increasing winds will remain the story for the NC waters. Maria
will continue to move N through tonight and is forecast to be
150 miles east of Cape Hatteras at 8 AM Wed. Winds expected to
increase to Tropical Storm force during the day and persist
tonight. Wave models continue to be slightly overdone with 10-17
feet currently observed at buoys, but still expect heights
building to 15-20 feet late today through tonight.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Extremely rough boating conditions continue
Wed into Thu as Maria very slowly moves east of NC. The storm
will accelerate eastward Thursday though high seas will
continue. Conditions improve Friday into Saturday with seas 2 to
5 ft. Indications that NE winds pick up later this weekend as a
cool front moves through and SCA conditions return with 4-6 ft
seas possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ046-047-081-093>095-103-104.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ098.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136.
     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ130-131-135-137-150-152-154-156-
     158.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/TL
MARINE...HSA/JBM/TL



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