Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 311400
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression 8 will continue to lift northeast, away from
North Carolina today. Another tropical system will lift
northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico and will impact the
area Friday into Saturday. High pressure will build into the
region Sunday and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
As of 10 AM Wed...Fog has burned off this morning though 500 ft
stratus deck is slow to mix out. Have made minor tweaks to
reflect current trends, keeping skies partly sunny to mostly
cloudy through the day. Psudo warm front is draped w-e south of
Cape Fear, and area of showers and storms along and south of this
boundary slowly plodding northward. Expect this area of precip to
remain just offshore through the day today. Over land, weak sea
breeze will develop this afternoon as the low status mixes out and
will see just an iso shower or storm develop, therefore have
lowered pops on land to no higher than 20%. High temps expected
in the upper 80s/near 90 interior to mid/upr 80s coast, though may
have to readjust a degree or two downwards should cloud cover
linger and be more opaque than currently anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Wed...A mid-level trough will dig down from the Great
Lake region, meanwhile at the sfc an approaching cold front will
cross the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region and slide towards the
Southeast. This will aid to push Tropical Depression 8 well away
from the region. Models are indicating mid-upper level energy to
move northeast ahead of Tropical Depression 9 and aid to the
development of a weak along the coast overnight. Kept chance PoPs
along coastal sections through Thursday morning. Overnight lows in
the low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday, as one tropical system exits the area this
morning, another will likely have major impacts on the region
Friday night into early Saturday. High pressure will then build
into the region later Saturday into early next week with slight
cooler and drier air.

Thursday through Friday, weak low pressure between exiting
tropical system to the northeast and approaching stronger tropical
cyclone to the south, will zip up the coast Thursday providing
little precipitation but an increase in cloudiness. Rain chances
increase to likely Thursday night ahead of strong cold front which
should move to the coast early Friday morning. PoPs increase to
categorical coast to likely inland as deep moisture enters the
area ahead of Tropical Depression #9, which is likely to be a
tropical storm moving off our southern coast Friday into Friday
night. QPF forecast showing copious amounts of rainfall with this
system as WPC progs showing 3-7 inches across our CWA with locally
higher amounts possible, mainly near the coast. Winds will start
to ramp up ahead of the system by late afternoon Friday.

Friday night through Saturday, the worst of the tropical storm
will affect our southeast and eastern zones from about 03Z to 15Z
or so Saturday before accelerating away from the region as it
transitions to an extratropical cyclone. Local wind forecast
showing winds in the 50-60 mph possible near the Crystal Coast and
Outer Banks with this system, with a sharp drop off in both winds
and QPF as one goes further inland. Of course, any small deviation
in track could make a large difference in the impacts with this
system.

Saturday night through Tuesday, while high pressure builds at the
surface across the region bringing somewhat cooler and drier air
into early next week, a lingering mid-level low may produce a few
widely scattered showers, especially coastal sections, through the
weekend. Temperatures will be fairly comfortable with highs
generally low/mid 80s, and lows mid 60s to around 70 through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Thursday/...
As of 630 AM Wed...LIFR vsby and cigs across all taf sites this
morning. Fog and stratus should burn off by 14/15 with the return
of VFR conditions under light and variable winds today. Expect
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon along the seabreeze. OAJ/EWN have the best chance to see
showers/thunderstorms. Areas of patchy fog and stratus is possible
again Thursday morning, though forecast confidence is low.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday, VFR conditions will prevail through much
of Thursday, but increased showers/thunderstorms will accompany a
cold front through the region Thursday night into early Friday
morning and periods of sub-VFR conditions will be likely. Rain
becomes widespread with strong winds associated with Tropical
system Friday and especially Friday night into early Saturday with
very poor flying conditions expected. As storm moves away and
drier air returns, VFR conditions likely for Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Wed...Latest buoy obs are showing N/NW 5-10 knots
and seas 3-5ft across the coastal waters. Seas will gradually
subside today. Tropical Depression 8 will continue to move
northeast, away from North Carolina. Seas will be 4-5ft across the
northern and central waters, and then subsiding to 3-4 ft tonight.
Over the southern waters, seas will mainly be 2-4 ft, with seas
building late tonight 3-5 ft. Winds will be mainly 5-15 kts and becoming
southerly by the afternoon, and then southeast to east late
tonight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 345 AM Wednesday, one tropical system has moved away, but
another, stronger system will affect the coastal waters in the
Friday through early Saturday timeframe. Relatively quiet
conditions expected Thursday and Thursday night as generally NW/N
winds become W at 5-15 knots with seas running 3-5 feet through
the period. Latest NHC track brings the Tropical system, which is
likely to be a Tropical Storm, south and east of the NC coast
Friday night into early Saturday, with the strongest impacts from
roughly 03z through 15z Saturday. Winds gusts close to 60 knots
and seas as high as 15 feet, per latest hurricane version of
local NWPS/SWAN model. NE winds subside to 10-20 knots by Sunday,
but seas are likely to remain elevated until at least late Monday.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this tropical
system and small deviations in the track could lead to a big
change in the impacts to the marine area, so marine interests
should continue to closely monitor this situation.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/SK/TL/BM


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