Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 300201
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1001 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016
Upper level low pressure will remain quasi-stationary across the
Ohio River Valley through this weekend. High pressure will build
in from the north early next week and slide offshore by mid week.
.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
As of 10 PM Thu...A break in rain shower activity is noted per
regional radar analysis and near term model guidance. Some
redevelopment of showers is possible late tonight and have a slow
increasing pop trend to chc/sct showers late tonight as additional
shortwave activity rides northeast on cyclonic side of upper low.
Previous discussion...As of 400 PM Thursday...Latest meso-
analysis continues to show a vertically stacked low pressure
system over the Ohio Valley while a weak low formed over NC/SC
border this morning and moved farther SE. The low pushed the
frontal boundary across the Eastern NC...leading to low-level
moisture convergence over the coastal plains...while the main
frontal boundary remains over the piedmont region. The Flash Flood
Watch will remain in effect through 10 pm as the latest radar
returns showing storms over the SC and is expected to stream into
the area later this afternoon/evening. Heavy downpours are still
possible as precip water values remain high; around 1.9 inches.
Showers and thunderstorm chances continue overnight, then
gradually diminishes as the vort energy lifts north of the area
and instability wanes. Another mild night expected with lows in
the upper 60s inland to mid 70s coast.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...Very little change to the pattern as the
upper low centered over the KY/IN wobbles slightly north into
Ohio, while at the sfc, the slow moving cold front moves farther
east. With diffluence remaining to the east of the upper low, low
level convergence, high precip water and additional vort energy
moving through the upper low this will help enhance showers and
thunderstorms aided by increased instability from diurnal heating
and around 25-30 KT of bulk shear. Expect highs in the low 80s
across the area.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...
Fri through Sat...Big upper low will cont to the NW through the
end of the week with weak surface low/cold front to the west. This
will keep mainly srly flow over the area into Sat. Models are
slower to push dry mid lvl air into the region Fri so pops have
been increased with chc all areas...highest coast. Decent instab
develops again Fri so expect sct tsra some poss strong. Still
looks like decent axis of moisture will cont near the coast Sat
and have chc pops cst tapering to slight chc or no pop deep
inland. Will remain warm with srly flow...lows mainly mid 60s to
low 70s with highs in the low to poss mid 80s.
Sunday through Mon...As the upper low begins to lift NE Sunday
the sfc low/front slowly dissipates as it approaches Sun and
drifts off the coast Mon. Models cont to keep better moisture
along and E of cst so cont low chc pops cst Sunday tapering to
slight chc Monday...inland areas will be mainly dry. Not much
change to temps with lows cont in the 60s inland to low 70s cst
with highs upr 70s to lower 80s.
Tue through Wed...High pres will gradually build in from the N
Tue and slide E Wed. This will keep most areas dry Tue with small
pop cst. On wed increasing onshore flow will lead to a little
better chc of showers across the region. Little cooler with more
pronounced NNE flow Tue and Wed with highs mainly 70s to poss
around 80 S.
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...With light winds and a moist boundary
layer, could see patchy fog or stratus late tonight but confidence
is low as to occurrence as guidance and has been overdone the past
few nights. Ultimately it will depend on amount of rain received
today and degree of cloud cover persisting tonight. Will continue
to indicate patchy 3SM vsbys with fog 06Z- 12Z. Mainly VFR
conditions expected during the day Friday but there will continue
to be a scattered shower/tstm threat.
Long Term /Fri night through Tuesday/...
As of 2 PM Thu...Scattered shra and a few tsra cont Fri night with
a few periods of sub VFR likely. Drier air will work in from the W
Sat into Mon with decreasing chc of shra and mainly VFR...there
will be threat of some late night and early morning fog and
stratus with light winds this weekend into early next week.
Short Term /Tonight and Friday/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...Latest buoy obs showing N/NE 5-10 knots
and seas 3-5 ft across the waters. A weak low over South Carolina,
pushed a frontal boundary through the waters today with winds
mainly being northeast. Models are showing winds will slowly veer
SE to S late tonight. Wind will remain southerly below 15 KT and
seas around 2-4 FT south of Hatteras and 3 to 5 FT north.
Long Term /Fri through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Weak low pres/cold front W of the region Fri
into Sat will lead to mainly S flow aob 15 kts. The low/front will
slowly slide E toward the coast Sunday then move offshore Monday.
Light mostly S winds Sunday will become NE Mon but remain weak.
Seas thru the period will be mainly 2 to 4 feet...could flirt with
5 ft at times far outer waters...especially Fri into Fri night.