Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 210232
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1032 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN US COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO MOVE ITS WAY ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN WITH SOME SUBTLE ROTATION NOTED. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ONSHORE AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PENETRATING A BIT FURTHER INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY RAIN
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS OUTER BANKS/CARTERET COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL OMEGA/FGEN
OBSERVED IN RUC X-SECTIONS. HAVE INC POPS A BIT MORE TO ACCOUNT
FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND EXPECTED INC IN VORT ADVECTION ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY INC QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DUAL POL P-RATES JIVING WITH OBSERVED RATES
OF 1 TO OCNL 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE ONSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD
JUST OFFSHORE CONTINUING STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT AND ACTS TO
GENERATE STRONG OMEGA/FGEN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS CERTAINLY WILL BE A THREAT...AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN FCST GRIDS. WILL SEE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...THE COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT RAIN TO BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WELL WITH CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. AGAIN FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 60S COAST. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
WITH THE ECMWF CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIPITATION EVEN ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMPLETELY WHICH
IS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...AND THUS HAVE A SMALL POP IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST ON THURSDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL LIKEWISE HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OF
THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. BULK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH WILL SEE OCNL BOUTS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY AFFECT ESP THE KEWN AND KOAJ TAF SITES
WITH MORE SCT ACTIVITY INLAND. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WITH BEST CONFIDENCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AT KEWN
WHERE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AS AREA OF LOW PRES
MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS TURN WNW BRINGING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT
OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS EXISTS THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM SAT...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A
BROAD COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ESPECIALLY. SCA IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS. PAMLICO SOUND IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MONITOR AND WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS IF NEEDED.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FEET AND ENE WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

CONTINUED ON STRONG SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BLENDING THE HIGH RES
NAM/ARW INTO THE FORECAST FOR WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH AND HAVE JUMPED
TO 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
WITH 6 FOOT SEAS TO THE SOUTH. USED NWPS GUIDANCE AND HAD TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE EARLY PERIOD TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
HIGHER SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE TREACHEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. BASED ON LATEST OUTPUT FROM LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR SEAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND STRONG 1035 MB HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE. LONGER
RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RSB/CTC/TL
MARINE...RSB/CTC/LEP






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