Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 050642
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
142 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THUR...NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO ADD IN MENTION OF FOG
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
RESIDES FROM THE TIDEWATER REGION OF VIRGINIA WEST- SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE, SLOWLY HEADING EAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC.
WARM ADVECTION ON MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE NEAR ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF ONSLOW
AND CARTERET COUNTIES. COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT FOG
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING.WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S, CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF FOG JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IF WINDS CAN SUFFICIENTLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. MILD TEMPS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOIST SW FLOW. THURSDAYS HIGH TEMPS
WILL OCCUR EARLY MORNING THEN FALL MOST OF THE DAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COUNTIES AND FAR NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN WILL EXIST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
CLOSE IN TIMING ON FRONT DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS & NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK REACHING THE
SOUTH COAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING. POPS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP
TYPE WILL REMAIN RAIN DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
DURING THE DAY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL RETAIN APPROPRIATE
WORDING IN THE UPCOMING ZONE PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THU NIGHT WITH
WDSPRD RAIN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...GRADUALLY ENDING AS A PERIOD
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NW TO SE DURING THE NIGHT. GIVEN WARM
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...ONLY MINOR SLEET ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION ON
EXPOSED SURFACES...AND SOME SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
FRIDAY...WITH NAM SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF WDSRD LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER ALL OF ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF LIMIT PCPN TO COAST WITH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 32.
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...CONTINUED PREVIOUS LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
OF MAINLY CHC POPS ACROSS AREA WITH JUST 20% INLAND OF HWY 17
AFTER MID MORNING. DID INCREASE POPS ALONG COAST S OF OREGON INLET
TO LIKELY FOR RAIN WITH CHC OF FREEZING RAIN. ANOTHER FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN PSBL ALONG COAST.

GUSTY N-NE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG COAST WITH CAA SURGE THU NIGHT AND
COULD SEE WIND ADVSY CRITERIA MAINLY FOR OUTER BANKS.

CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRES WITH MODERATING TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT PSBL SRN STREAM SYSTEM TUE-WED...AND
JUST COVERED WITH 20% CHC OF RAIN TO INDICATE LOW FCST CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME.

MAV GDNC CONTINUES TO HAVE COLD BIAS WITH MIN TEMPS THU NIGHT AND
FRI NIGHT AND LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS LINE MORE WITH MET
MOS. COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SOME MID 20S INLAND.
TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL SUN-WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH TO
IFR/LIFT CIGS OVERNIGHT IF WINDS SUFFICIENTLY DIMINISH ALLOWING
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT AREA TAF SITES. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER AND LEFT OUT OF ALL EXCEPT KOAJ AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS ALL AGREE ON STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION
WITH IFR CIGS THUR BEHIND STRONG COLF FRONT. MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT SO COULD SEE RAIN CHANGE TO FZRA AND ICE
PELLETS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THURSDAY
BEFORE ENDING. WINDS SWITCH ABRUPTLY NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIP
CHANGING TO PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. CLEARING EXPECTED
FRI NIGHT WITH VFR PREVAILING REST OF PERIOD. GUSTY N-NE WINDS
15-25 MPH IN WAKE OF FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM THUR...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD DENSE FOG ADV FOR REST
OF THE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER ALLOWING FOR A
SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER AND THEREFORE A REAPPEARANCE OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS ALL AREAS. THINK THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE STRONG COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH MOVES THROUGH AND SWITCHES WINDS TO NORTHERLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 1030 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND
LIMITED BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
THOUGH 5-7 FT SEAS LIKELY FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS. ADJUSTED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN VOID OF FOG ISSUES/DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
UNDER A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, EXCEPT FOR THE ONSLOW/CARTERET
COUNTY COAST WHERE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA WILL ISSUE GALE
WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS...THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
AND ALLIGATOR RIVER...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
REMAINING RIVERS. FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND REACH THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH AND
INCREASE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SCA SRN RIVERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF 25 TO 35
KT WINDS ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING DUE TO STRONG CAA
IN WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SAT MORNING...BUT ELEVATED SEAS
WILL LINGER OUTER WATERS INTO SAT MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL REST OF WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

LEANED TO LOCAL NWPS FOR SEAS MOST OF PERIOD. HEIGHTS PEAKING 8-12
FT LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150-152-154-156-158.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG/HSA
NEAR TERM...DAG/HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG/TL
MARINE...JBM/DAG/HSA/TL



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