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000
FXUS62 KMHX 180542
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
142 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shortwave and attendant cold front bringing low chances of light rain
tonight. Another weak cold front cross the region by the end of
the work week before another stronger cold front impacts the
area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 735 PM Wednesday...Southerly WAA continues, although winds
have diminished a bit at the time of this update. Radar imagery
would suggest rain reaching the ground for NOBX, but dry low
levels is evaporating the drops before they can reach the
ground. This is supported by a lack of measurable precip at KMQI
and K7W6. CAMs suggest highest chance of rainfall ahead of a
shortwave tonight will be for areas north of hwy 264. With virga
likely eating away at the stubborn dry layer for NE portions of
the CWA, this region is best primed for precip reaching the
ground.

Previous Discussion...As of 1530 Wednesday...Warm front has
lifted N of the FA leading to Serly WAA. Have lowered Highs a
degree or two for this afternoon due to cloud coverage. Upper
front and attendant shortwave will approach the region tonight.
CAMs point to a broken band of precipitation crossing the FA
just after midnight ahead of the s/w, but confidence is low any
of this will reach the ground especially west of Highway 17
where dry air will remain stubbornly entrenched. Modestly better
risk of rainfall will be along the coast where moisture
profiles are less hostile. Still, the odds of precipitation are
low - no higher than Chc PoPs in any area. Persistent cloud
cover and steady southwesterly winds keep temperatures elevated
with overnight lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...No major changes with this update, as
previous forecast is still trending well.


Previous Discussion...As of 1530 Wednesday...SFC low sliding
off the MidAtlantic coast will usher a weakening front through
the NEern half of the FA while flow aloft becomes more
downsloping NWerly in the wake of the shortwave trough axis
pushing offshore. Werly background winds 10G15kt keeps seabreeze
pinned along the Crystal Coast; Nern sea/sound/river breezes
showing more penetration inland, aided by the front moving
through at the same time. Highest PoPs in the afternoon will be
centered over the convergence zone of the Nern sound/river
breezes and the front which could be enough to spark some upward
motion, but the column is expected to be too dry for any
meaningful rainfall. Regardless, can plan on sunny skies for
most with clouds developing along the pinned Crystal Coast
seabreeze and the boundaries in the N with a broader diurnal Cu
field developing inland later. Mostly sunny through the day
leads to MaxTs in the upper 80s inland, low to mid 70s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

A fairly active pattern is on tap this week into early next week
with multiple frontal passages impacting the area.

Thursday night through Friday night...Upper ridging will build back
over the area late Thursday, with the axis cresting over the area
early Friday with dry conditions prevailing. Another dampening mid
level shortwave and attendant cold front is progged to push across
the area late Friday and Friday night, which may bring isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Most
guidance keeps the best overlap of shear and instability to the west
of ENC, but we`ll have to monitor trends in guidance as there is a
non-zero risk of some stronger afternoon storms west of HWY 17.
Temps will remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs
Thursday generally in the mid to upper 80s inland and 70s along the
coast. On Friday, E to NE onshore flow will bring cooler conditions
along the coast, especially across the OBX where mid to upper 60s
will prevail, but well inland highs expected in the mid 80s with a
few upper 80s possible.

Saturday through Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A weakening
cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall just off the
coast Saturday night. The timing of the front during the day
Saturday will need to be monitored, as some of the 12z guidance
today has come in slower with the front, which may allow more
heating/destabilization to occur across southern sections of ENC.
Should this slower trend hold, we`ll have to watch for a strong to
severe thunderstorm risk.

Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring
better forcing across the area with sfc low pressure developing
along the offshore front, which is progged to pass off the OBX
Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday as
high pressure builds in from the west through Tuesday. Highs
Saturday will be a few degrees cooler inland with highs around 75-80
with mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast. Saturday normal inland with
highs in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast. A cooler
airmass builds in behind the front which, along with clouds and
showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal with highs in
the 60s Sunday and Monday. Temps are expected to warm back to near
normal for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Fri/...
As of 140 AM Thu...VFR conditions prevail over the area as mid-
level shortwave passes overhead. Radar imagery shows very light
returns aloft, but persistent dry sub-cloud layer is resulting
in little more than widespread virga. A few CAMs this morning
remain insistent on a narrow band of precip developing the
immediate coast just before dawn, and retained a mention of
showers for OAJ and EWN.

Skies rapidly clear during the day as winds veer west to west-
northwest with a few gusts to 15 kt possible over the inner
coastal plain in the afternoon. By tonight, a weakening backdoor
cold front will push across the area from the northeast as a
weak offshore low drifts off the mid-Atlantic coast. The initial
passage will bring a wind shift out of the east, but lower cigs
are likely to gradually build over terminals after 06z.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 430 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through the long
term although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of
sub- VFR in isolated showers late Friday/Friday night and again
late Saturday as a series of mid level shortwaves and attendant
cold fronts traverse the area. Low pressure passes along the
offshore front on Sunday bringing the best chance of widespread
rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 1545 Wednesday...Benign boating conditions continue this
afternoon as warm front lifted N through area waters earlier
today. Regional observations show seas of 3-4 feet with
predominantly S to SWerly 10-15kt. Several of the high-res
models continue to suggest SCA conditions developing offshore
overnight. The less aggressive guidance still shows gusts up to
20+ kt tonight into Thursday morning. Considering how poorly the
model suites resolved the winds near the front yesterday, have
erred on the side of caution and went with SCAs for Central and
Sern coastal waters as well as PamSound overnight.Seas will
remain steady at 3-4 feet through the day, building slightly to
3-5 feet with 6 ft possible over far outer waters overnight
with the stronger winds.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...An active pattern will prevail in the
long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold
fronts move into the waters but conditions are expected to
remain below SCA criteria until late in the weekend. SW winds
around 10-20 kt on Thursday will become NE behind a cold front
pushing through Thursday night into Friday. Variable winds
around 10 kt or less Friday night becomes Nly around 10-15 kt on
Saturday as another cold front drops into the area and stalls
offshore. Low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and
pass off the OBX Sunday night with NE winds around 15-25 kt.
Seas will generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft
across the outer waters through most of the period but will
build to 4-7 ft Sunday night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ
SHORT TERM...CEB/RJ
LONG TERM...RM/SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/CEB