Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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525
FXUS62 KMHX 030237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH WDSPRD SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS AFFECTING
AREA. KEPT LIKELY POPS W TO CHC POPS E FOR OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH
OF FRONT FROM W-NW AND INCREASED SHRT WV ENERGY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE. NO CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM MON...CONVECTION SLOW TO FIRE OVER REGION THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 2000 TO 3000 INLAND.
SEA BREEZE IS STARTING TO MOVE INLAND AND WITH SOME STORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE W EVENTUALLY THINK WILL SEE A BIT
BETTER CVRG OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING INLAND. ALONG
THE COAST LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC AS SEA BRZ MOVING INLAND SHLD
LIMIT THREAT THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE GOOD INSTAB A FEW STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

OVERNIGHT THINK WILL SEE LIMITED COVERAGE THRU EVENING ONCE
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WEAKENS. LATE TONIGHT MOST ALL MODELS
SHOW AREA OF LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO REGION FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALTHOUGH HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE IN QPF PAST FEW DAYS WILL
CONT WITH LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC LATE. WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
SSW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT...LOWS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WITH COLD FRONT GRAD APPROACHING FROM THE W
AND SHORTWAVES CROSSING IN SW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT GOOD CVRG OF SHRA
AND TSRA. IF GET SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND MODERATE INSTAB TO
DEVELOP COULD AGAIN SEE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AS
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE AREA. WL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER A LOT OF
THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY. BY MONDAY A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. BUT KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN FCST WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED N BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM W-SW WILL AFFECT INLAND TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING EVENING WITH
LCL SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. MORE WDPSRD ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
GDNC SUPPORTS CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH LCL SUB-VFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE
TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE
RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSITIONS OFF
THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ON THE COAST EARLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...LATEST GDNC SUPPORTS FCST OF SW WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT OUTER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS
OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSISON/
AS OF 230 PM MON...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT SEAS OVER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 6 FEET OUTER PORTIONS AND CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY
TUE. WL CONT SCA S OF OREGON INLET LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE TUE
NIGHT. SEAS OVER NRN WTRS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BECOMING MORE NW ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/RF/JBM
MARINE...RSB/RF/JBM



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