Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 191940
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
240 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Above normal temperatures on tap this week...

...Mid week Gulf system looks to slide by to the south...

Current-Tonight...Shortwave trough beginning to move off of the mid
Atlc coast/southeast U.S. coast this afternoon. Water vapor imagery
shows much drier mid/upper level air spreading down the peninsula
behind the upper trough. Stubborn low clouds dissipating I-4
corridor northward and a slower trend is beginning south from here.
Northwest winds across the interior with winds veering to NNE/NE
along the east coast. With the weak pressure gradient in place for
tonight, expect the surface winds to back to a northwest "drainage"
flow again this evening. Above the surface, 925 mb winds are
forecast to veer more northeasterly thru the night drawing in some
marine influence.

As the upper trough departs the eastern seaboard, shortwave ridging
aloft is still forecast to amplify across the GOMEX and Florida
peninsula overnight. This in response to upper troughing digging
across areas further westward. With surface high pressure building
southward into the region providing for clearing skies and
subsidence aloft, expect moisture trapped in the lower levels to
allow for areas of fog over the interior overnight/early Mon
morning, as well as for patchy fog mention near the east coast. With
many smoldering brushfires still around, visibility could become
worse with mixing of fog in these areas. Overnight lows will fall
into the U50s/L60s along the east coast and M-U50s across the
interior.

Monday...The shortwave ridging aloft will align directly across the
Florida peninsula with ridge axis extending northward through the
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Broad surface high pressure will
encompass the eastern CONUS. After any fog/low stratus burns off
through mid-morning, light/variable morning winds will become NE/ENE
up to around 10 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy with conditions
remaining dry. Max temperatures will climb into the L80s inland from
the coast with U70s/80F degrees near the east coast.

Monday night-Tue Night...High amplitude ridge over Florida will
slide ESE and flatten as the base of an equally amplified h50 trough
over the central CONUS cuts off into a low and drifts ESE into the
central GOMEX. Eastern CONUS surface high eases offshore into the
Atlantic, with light ENE flow become E to ESE by sunrise Wednesday.
Conditions remain mostly dry and warm/mild with an increase in
mid/high level moisture and clouds. Increase in shallow low level
moisture has prompted model guidance (particularly the higher res
meso runs) to hint at a small coastal shower threat developing late
Tuesday night. As such, this has been added to the girds/ZFP.
Otherwise,

Wednesday-Friday...As odd as it seems to say, it appears likely that
the mid-week GOMEX system will bypass central Florida to the south.
Positively tilted upstream "kicker" trough will continue to shove
the parent H50 low center SE to ESE across western Cuba through
Wednesday night. The low then moves over the Isla de Juventud and
eastward along the southern Cuban coast on Thursday, as the residual
vort lobe associated with the northern portion of the trough which
spawned the low drops SE across Florida. The Cuban low then opens up
into a positive tilt trough over the SE Bahamas through Friday night.

The attendant surface low NW of the Yucatan Channel gets left behind
by its digging mid level parent, spinning down and then dissipating
in place as a slug of mainly mid and high level moisture slides E-
ESE across central and southern Florida Wednesday through Thursday
afternoon.

Guidance POPs remain middling, no higher than 30-40 percent for the
event, with the highest rain chances around Lake Okeechobee and
points south, tapering back Late Thursday afternoon/evening. Moist
SE to southerly flow remains in place for Friday, however, warranting
a chance for diurnal showers along sea/lake breeze boundaries.
Temps will remain above normal, warming through late week from U70s
Wed to L-M80s on Friday. Mins in the L-M60s.

Next Weekend...Both the GFS/ECM show a weak "back door" front oozing
across central Florida sometime between late Saturday afternoon
(GFS) and late Saturday night/early Sunday morning (ECM). The trend
appears to be showing a slower motion with this boundary and minimal
cooling/drying behind it as winds quickly veer onshore. The current
forecast shows a lingering small rain chance Saturday, and future
forecasts may have to add a small POP to the southern CWA Sunday.
Otherwise, above normal temps will continue with mainly L80s for
highs and L60s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure building into the area tonight will
promote clearing skies and subsidence aloft. Moisture trapped near
the surface should allow for fog formation across ECFL once again.
Believe the threat will be greatest across the interior. The
fog/stratus (IFR/MVFR) may take until mid morning Mon to burn off in
some places, then expect VFR for the remainder of the day. Surface
winds becoming light, drainage (NW) tonight, then NE/ENE to around
10 kts on Mon.

&&

.MARINE...This afternoon-Tonight...High pressure building into the
area. Veering winds will be mainly N/NNE tonight with speeds up to
10-15 kts over the open Atlc. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft
offshore. Short period seas will make small craft boating a little
rough.

Monday...Generally NE winds 7-12 kts with dry conditions and high
pressure still the main weather influence. Seas mainly 2-3 ft,
except 4 ft at times over the Gulf Stream.

Tuesday-Friday...Light onshore flow Tuesday will freshen slightly
Wednesday-Thursday between the retreating high to the NE and the low
well off to the WSW. Speeds will remain below 15kt however, which
should keep seas in the 3-4FT range. Further slight increase in
speeds to around 15KT on Friday (and possibly a little higher) could
nudge seas up to around 5FT well offshore by then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  78  60  77 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  59  82  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  61  80  64  78 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  61  80  63  78 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  58  82  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  58  81  60  80 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  61  82  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  60  79  61  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/Aviation...Sedlock
LONG TERM/DSS/Impact Wx/...Cristaldi


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