Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 021516 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION... THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WL CONTINUE. W TO SW STEERING FLOW 10 TO 15 KT
ALONG WITH SEASONABLE MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. A MODEST SW
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE
BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE ENTIRE EC FL COAST. SCT STORM
COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED INITIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST ASSOCD WITH
THE SEA BREEZE. ANOTHER FAVORED AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AS SCT
STORMS PUSH E/NE FROM THE GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTN. OUTFLOWS FROM
THIS CONVECTION WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTN
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WL BE FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. SOME
STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ESP VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST WHICH COULD AFFECT MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA
THROUGH 19Z. ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL MOVE NE TWD NRN TERMINALS AND I-4
CORRIDOR (ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB) PRODUCING BRIEFLY MVFR CONDS. INCRSG CVG
OF TSRA WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS PSBL THROUGH 03/01Z. BECMG VFR AREA
WIDE AFT 03/03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER S FL WL BRING S/SW WINDS
NR 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM
THROUGH 8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  91  74 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  95  74  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  93  74  91  76 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  30  30
LEE  95  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  96  75  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  72  92  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SPRATT


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