Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 270840
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
440 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...High Risk of Rip Currents Continue in the Surf Zone Today...

Today...Ridge axis to the north will gradually weaken and slip
south resulting in a light easterly breeze. There will be some
marine stratocumulus pushing onshore esp south of the Cape but
current IR imagery does not show any convergent cloud
lines/showers and this should continue given the the decreased
onshore flow. Highs look similar to yesterday ranging from the
upper 70s/near 80 beaches and mid 80s well inland.

Long period east swells will continue to propagate into the surf
zone and produce a High Risk of rip currents. Onshore wind speeds
will be lower which may make the surf look more inviting.

Tonight...weakening onshore flow will allow temps to settle into
the upper 50s and lower 60s most areas. With the ridge axis
settling closer to the area, lighter winds through a deeper layer
may permit a better chance for patchy fog to develop.

Tue-Tue night...Weak shortwave ridging will build across the GOMEX
and Florida peninsula with NW/WNW flow aloft across the region. At
the surface a very weak pressure gradient will be in place with
ridging across ECFL. Winds generally light/variable but an onshore
component will develop along the east coast early in the afternoon
and move slowly inland. Mostly sunny skies forecast with conditions
remaining dry. Highs will range from U70s/L80s at the coast with L-
M80s further into the interior. Lows generally 60-64F, except U50s
in the normally coolest locations over the interior.

Wed-Wed night...Weak high pressure remains near ECFL with continued
light winds. Again an onshore flow will develop in the afternoon
along the coast and track inland. Mostly sunny skies and dry with
L80s for highs near the coast and M-U80s interior. Lows mild and
generally in the 60s.

Thu-Sun...An intense upper cyclone over the central CONUS early in
the period will track eastward and off of the mid Atlc coast Sat
afternoon. This will push a weak surface trough across the area on
Sat. We may see some convective activity Fri afternoon as PWAT
values push towards 1.60 inches, all in association with some energy
aloft ahead of the large upper cyclone to the north. Some residual
moisture lingering around and especially south of KMCO may allow for
additional precipitation ahead of the approaching front for Sat as
well. Much drier/stable air moves back into the area Sat night/Sun.
Temperatures will remain well above normal with L-M80s along the
coast and U80s inland for highs and lows mainly in the 60s
areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Northeast to east winds 10 knots or less during the day. Patchy
MVFR VSBYs possible through 13Z and again late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...Ridge axis will extend from offshore the Carolina
coast southwest to north FL and gradually weaken. This will
produce a light E wind flow of 5-10 knots across the north and around
10 knots south. The primary contribution to wave height will be
persistent east swells keeping seas 4 to 6 feet. This may cause
rough conditions for small craft near inlets esp during the
outgoing tide. For this reason, have maintained a Small Craft
Caution headline.

Tue-Fri...Weak high pressure ridging will reside over the coastal
waters Tue-Wed, then slide further east/south ahead of an
approaching weak upper disturbance that will move into the area on
Fri. Generally light/variable winds into Thu with a sea breeze
developing each afternoon along the coast. Gradually increasing SE/S
winds Thu night into Fri as the pgrad tightens a bit.

Continued poor conditions for small craft offshore early in the
period with seas building to 5-6 ft here north of Ft. Pierce and
generally 3-5 ft elsewhere. A gradual subsiding of seas continues
Tue overnight into Thu. Seas will again begin to build ahead of the
approaching system as winds increase Thu overnight-Fri night.

The lingering easterly swell may cause locally hazardous conditions
near inlets during the outgoing tide into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  60  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  84  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  80  60  80  62 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  80  60  81  61 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  84  61  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  60  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  83  62  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  80  57  81  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Sedlock



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