Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 241429
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1030 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The early morning Cape sounding shows precip water still around 2
inches but Miami sounding is lower at 1.7" showing some drier air in
the mid levels. The weak troughiness aloft has pushed east of the
area and is aiding the convection over the gulf stream. Flow aloft
has become more zonal but a weak shortwave embedded in the westerly
flow is generating convection north of Tampa. Expect scattered
showers/storms to push east across Lake/Volusia/Seminole counties
into the afternoon. While the current convective cluster may weaken,
outflow should get additional storms to fire given the higher
moisture and sfc heating occurring across the northern sections. So
50 PoP looks good north of Orlando. Have lowered rain chances a bit
south of Orlando/Cape showing 30 Percent for Osceola/south
Brevard/Indian River and maintaining 20 Percent for the southern
counties.

Primary threats will be heavy downpours and frequent lightning
strikes. The westerly steering flow push storms to the east 10-15
mph. Mesoscale models (HRRR and local WRF) indicate convection may
linger a little later into the evening than previous days across
southern sections.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA will push east from the gulf coast across LEE 15-17Z, SFB
16z-18Z and DAB aft 18Z. Will probably need TEMPO groups at those
terminals. Elsewhere, VCTS should suffice at MCO/ISM/TIX. Offshore
SW flow will turn onshore (SE) near the coast. May need to add a
VCTS for southern terminals to account for late day boundary
collisions but drier air resides there and coverage should be lower
than previous days.

&&

.MARINE...
No significant changes to current coastal waters forecast.
RAP analysis shows low-level Atlantic ridge axis draped roughly
across Lake Okeechobee.  South to southwest winds 10 knots will turn
onshore in a sea breeze near the coast. Seas 1-2FT near shore and up
to 3FT well offshore. A few strong storms may push offshore again
this afternoon, esp north of Sebastian Inlet.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  93  76 /  50  30  30  20
MCO  93  76  94  76 /  50  20  30  20
MLB  92  77  92  78 /  40  30  30  20
VRB  92  75  92  77 /  30  30  40  30
LEE  91  76  94  77 /  50  10  30  20
SFB  93  76  94  77 /  50  20  30  20
ORL  93  78  94  77 /  50  20  30  20
FPR  92  74  92  76 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

$$



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