Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 040744
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
344 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE...WHICH HAS LARGELY PRECLUDED
RAIN OVER MOST OF AREA THIS WEEK WILL GET SHUNTED WELL S OF THE
AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRESSES SWD INTO THE STATE. THE
APPROACHING WAVE WL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES JUST UNDER TWO INCHES WILL COMBINE WITH
SFC HEATING AND LOCAL BOUNDARIES...INCLUDING AN INLAND CREEPING
EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS. STEERING LEVEL WINDS (NEAR H7 OR 10000FT) ADVERTISED OUT
OF THE WNW AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WL ACT TO FAVOR THE EAST SIDE OF
THE PENINSULA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY STRONG STORMS FROM
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST PENINSULA (ASCD WITH A
PSEUDO WEST COAST BREEZE) MAY INTERACT OVER THE ECFL AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE HAZARDS WL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGER STORMS FROM AROUND 3 TO 6 PM. WL KEEP THE MENTION OF SCT
STORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHICH COMMONLY
HAPPENS IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS EXTENDING PAST THE TRADITIONAL
DIURNAL MAX AS STORM RELATIVE INFLOW CAN BE ENHANCED IN THE
PRESENCE OF AN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND AND SHOULD ANY
UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS REMAIN FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

THIS LATE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL COULD BE THE SCENARIO OVER THE
SOUTH (TREASURE CST/LAKE OKEE) FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
ENCROACHING SHORTWAVE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S/NEW ENGLAND
RIDGES ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF MOVES
LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE
SOUTH A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND SHOULD BE THE RULE EACH MORNING. EARLY
SEA BREEZES SHOULD A COUPLE OF MPH/KNOTS TO THE LARGER SCALE WIND
PATTERN. THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL ALLOW THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EARLY AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT AN EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION FROM AROUND
NORTH LAKE COUNTY SOUTH TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND WEST. THIS IS
WHERE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST WITH AROUND A 60 POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 90 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
LOW 90S WELL INLAND. LOWS SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING MID 70S.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND SOUTH FLORIDA NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH TO BUILD WEST OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW. LIKELY RAIN CHANCES IN THE INTERIOR ON
TUESDAY DROP SOME TO 50 TO 40 PERCENT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND LOW 90S
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH 04/16Z THEN ISOLD SHRA/TS PRODUCING MVFR CONDS
MNLY N OF A LINE FM MLB-ISM. FM 04/18Z-04/22Z SCT TSRA WITH OCNL MVFR
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS PSBL ALL SITES. AFT 04/22Z SCT TSRA WITH OCNL
MVFR CONDS BECMG ISOLD AFT 05/01Z. VFR CONDS AREAWIDE AFT 05/04Z.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT TO START DAY FAVORABLE SEA CONDITIONS 2 FT
OR LESS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE BREEZE 5 TO 10 KT EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR OFFSHORE AND COASTAL
STORMS N OF PORT CANAVERAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH OF PORT CANAVERAL TO JUPITER INLET FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SAT-MON....LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING. SEA
BREEZES ADD A KNOT OR TWO IN THE THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

TUE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SEA BREEZES ADD A KNOT OR TWO TO THE
ONSHORE WIND AT THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  74 /  50  30  40  20
MCO  92  74  91  74 /  60  30  50  20
MLB  92  74  90  75 /  50  30  50  20
VRB  92  73  89  73 /  50  30  50  20
LEE  92  75  92  74 /  60  30  50  20
SFB  94  75  92  74 /  60  30  50  20
ORL  93  76  92  75 /  60  30  50  20
FPR  92  72  89  73 /  50  30  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER



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