Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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273
FXUS62 KMLB 071555 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY AND COLDER TODAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING AND INDUCING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WINDS
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES/ LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL BOTH GET SCOURED OUT
AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AND SFC LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY
THIS AFTN. WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE THOUGH WILL COME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THAT MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STEADY THIS MORNING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BUT WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON (LOWER
60S TREASURE COAST) DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION... CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z
AS LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL THEN
BECOME STRONG W/NW WINDS 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH
23Z. THE GUSTINESS WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
OVER THE WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS
WAKE WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-15 FEET OVER THE GULF
STREAM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING
OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HEADLINES WILL THEN NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT AS WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING BOATING
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  54  38  66  43 /  20   0  10  20
MCO  57  39  66  46 /  10   0  10  20
MLB  58  38  64  44 /  10   0  10  20
VRB  59  38  65  48 /  10   0  10  20
LEE  56  40  67  45 /  10   0  10  20
SFB  57  39  66  44 /  10   0  10  20
ORL  56  42  65  49 /  10   0  10  20
FPR  59  39  64  48 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

KELLY/SPRATT



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