Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 210402 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1002 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.


.UPDATE...Have updated to lower overnight lows slightly in some
locations based on current trends and also to remove pops for
coastal Okaloosa county for the remainder of the night. Also
adjusted sky cover for clear to mostly clear skies over the area.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions through 22.00z. SCT to BKN
mid to high clouds will continue to move across the region through
22.00z. winds will be east southeast at 5 to 10 knots through the
forecast period. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...An upper shortwave to our west
will move east over the forecast area tonight, followed by upper
ridging building over the region on Sunday. Much of the atmosphere
remains very dry, so rain-free conditions will persist through the
near term. Meanwhile, a 1025 mb surface high pressure ridge across
the southeast states and northeast Gulf of Mexico will shift
slightly eastward in response to a surface low pressure area
forming across the southern Great Plains. A light southerly to
southeasterly wind flow will persist across the forecast area
between these two features through Sunday afternoon. Patchy fog
may develop late tonight across the southwest portion of the
forecast area as a thin layer of low level moisture moves in from
the gulf. /22

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...A shortwave
will move from the central plains Sunday night into the great
lakes region by Monday night. An associated sfc cold front will
approach the area on Monday and move through during the afternoon
and evening hours. Ahead of the front showers and isolated
thunderstorms will increase in coverage with rain likely through
much of the afternoon. The lack of quality moisture return and the
primary upper dynamics shifting well north of the area will limit
the severe threat. SPC has a marginal risk for severe storms
across the region on Monday, however instability will be very
weak. In addition, the nearshore waters are fairly cool due to the
cold air outbreaks the last few weeks. Return flow over this
water will also act to limit how unstable the atmosphere can
become. Advection fog, some of which could be dense, will develop
across parts of the area Sunday night. Temperatures will be well
above normal Sunday and Monday.

High pressure builds in behind the front on Tuesday with drier and
cooler conditions expected through Tuesday night. /13

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Seasonable temps and dry
conditions expected Wednesday through Friday as high pressure
dominates the area. Rain chances return to the forecast late in
the period as the next upper level system and associated cold
front approach the region. /13




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