Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1157 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24
hours, although may see some spots with MVFR conditions in fog late
tonight. Mostly calm winds tonight will be followed by a northeast
flow 4-8 mph which becomes easterly in the afternoon, then returns to
calm conditions Tuesday evening. /29


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

UPDATE...Current forecast is on track with no changes planned. /29

00Z issuance...VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours
with light northerly or calm winds tonight becoming a light easterly
flow on Tuesday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A shortwave moving southeast
across the Lower Miss River Valley continues to generate some high
clouds across the southeastern states. However, the atmosphere
remains way too dry to support any precip. The shortwave will pass
tonight with upper ridging building over the area on Tuesday. This
will maintain the dry conditions with warmer temps as upper heights
increase. Lows tonight range from the upper 40s and low 50s inland
to upper 50s and low 60s along the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be
in the mid 80s inland to around along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...Surface high
pressure and the dry conditions will persist across the region through
most of the short term period, but will weaken by late Thursday as a
weak cold front moves into the interior southeastern states and
stalls. Meanwhile, an upper level high pressure ridge over the Gulf
of Mexico extending northwestward over the nation`s midsection will
shift eastward over the eastern conus and gradually weaken. Energy
associated with an upper level shortwave moving east out of the
plains will approach the forecast area from the west Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night and continue east across the area on
Thursday. This will mainly bring only a slight increase in mid/upper
level clouds through the short term period as it approaches, and
eventually very slight chance for rain (especially on Thursday). But,
with only continued slight low/mid level moisture return this
feature will struggle to create any meaningful rainfall across the
region, so maintained an isolated to low end chance for showers over
mainly southern half of forecast area on Thursday. Otherwise temperatures
will continue the slight warming trend. Lows Tuesday night will range from
the lower 50s inland to the lower 60s near the coast, moderating to
the upper 50s inland to mid and upper 60s by Thursday night. Daytime
highs in the low to mid 80s both Wednesday and Thursday. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Airmass dries out again substantially
Friday through Monday, with no chance for rain again in the forecast
through the end of the period. Daytime highs in the low to mid 80s
each day through the period, overnight lows generally ranging from
the mid 50s far interior counties to the low to mid 60s closer to the
coast. 12/DS

MARINE...A light onshore flow mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours will persist through Tuesday as high pressure builds
over the area. Easterly flow will develop and increase mid to late
week as high pressure is reinforced from the northeast. /13




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