Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 110212

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
812 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.


.UPDATE...Made a few tweaks to the afternoon forecast package to
account for current trends. The most significant was to lower
overnight low temperatures, especially over coastal counties. Calm to
light surface winds have allowed for more efficient radiational
cooling then models predicted. /08


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 551 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...Mostly clear skies tonight with a light north to
northeasterly surface wind flow. A scattered...low cloud deck (015 to
025) should advect into the Western Florida Panhandle by early
morning. Clouds thicken and spread northwestward creating a mix of
MVFR...VFR Ceilings over the flying area by afternoon. MVFR ceilings
should be more extensive across the coastal counties of AL and
Western FL. Clouds cover is expected to slowly dissipate during the
afternoon...early evening timeframe. Surface winds should range from
5 to 10 knots during the day and slowly veer to a southeasterly
direction by the afternoon. /08

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Weather map analysis shows a
nearly zonal (west to east) flow at high levels over the southern
states while the center of a strong surface high (~1035 millibars)
was positioned over Kentucky and Tennessee. This high is forecast to
move east across the Appalachians tonight and then off the Mid-
Atlantic coast by Sunday afternoon. Mostly clear skies forecast for
much of the night, but there are indications that some lower level
stratus, developing near a weakly reflected surface trof from the
Florida Big Bend to the central Gulf will begin to pull northward
and increase cloud cover, by and after daybreak Sunday. Clouds look
to continue to increase from southeast to northwest thru the course
of the day Sunday as the weak surface trof lifts northwest over the
northern Gulf. Mid level impulses caught up in the high level
westerly flow, move east across the central Gulf coast and may bring
enough upper level support along with approach of surface trof over
the coastal waters to squeeze out a small chance of shower activity
Sunday, generally along and south of I-10 over the western Florida
Panhandle and out across the coastal waters. Precipitation amounts
light, at or less than 5 hundredths of an inch.

Overnight lows forecast to be coldest over the interior and closer to
and north of US Hwy 84 with numbers dipping to close to freezing.
Lower to mid 30s south to I-10 and lower to mid 40s closer to the
coast. Daytime highs Sunday moderate into the lower to mid 60s for
most of the local area. /10

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...Zonal mid/upper
level wind flow will continue through the short term at the base of a
very broad upper longwave trough from the Rockies to the western
Atlantic. The 1032mb surface high pressure centered over the western
Atlantic will move eastward, with a trailing surface ridge remaining
across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. A southerly wind
flow on the backside of the departing high will be ongoing Sunday
evening and continue through Tuesday evening, bringing an increase in
moisture. Patchy fog development will be possible both Sunday and
Monday nights. A weak surface low across the lower Mississippi
River midnight Tuesday will move east across the southeast states
through Tuesday afternoon, followed by another weak surface
approaching the forecast area late Tuesday night. These two surface
lows will bring and sustain a weak boundary across the forecast area
on Tuesday. Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will remain through the
short term. Isolated rain showers will primary be confined to the
western Florida panhandle Sunday night into Monday morning, followed
by isolated to scattered showers rain showers moving into the
forecast area northwest of I-65 Monday afternoon and evening ahead of
the approaching surface low, while areas southeast of I-65 dry out.
Scattered rain showers will then occur area-wide late Monday night
through Tuesday night due to the surface boundary moving and
stalling across the forecast area. A few embedded thunderstorms may
occur on Tuesday.

Low temperatures Sunday night will range from 47 to 54 degrees inland
areas, mid to upper 50s along the coastal sections, and around 60
degrees at the beaches. High temperatures Monday will 15 to 20
degrees above normal, ranging from 72 to 77 degrees. Low temperatures
Monday night will around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from 59 to
62 degrees inland areas with mid 60s along the coastal sections. High
temperatures Tuesday will range from 68 to 74 degrees. /22

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The scattered rain showers
will persist into through Wednesday afternoon as the surface low
moves east across the forecast area. Meanwhile, the stalled boundary
across the forecast area will push south off the coast by early
Wednesday evening as a cold front on the backside of the surface low
moving east of the area. A short dry period will then occur on the
backside of the cold front through Thursday night as high pressure
builds in from the north. Isolated to scattered rain showers will
return Friday and Saturday as the surface high moves east and an
upper trough moves over the southern plains. High temperatures on
Thursday ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s will rebound into the
upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday. /22

MARINE...Surface high pressure moves east to off the Mid-Atlantic
coast on Sunday, while a weakly reflected pressure trof slides
northwest over the northern Gulf. A small chance of showers possible
with this feature. The northern Gulf trof dissipates going into
Monday with high pressure sinking southward across the Florida
Panhandle. A cold front drops southward to the coast Tuesday and
begins to stall, bringing an increased chance of showers and possibly
a few storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Offshore flow sets up in the wake
of the frontal passage late Wednesday, continuing into Thursday. /10




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