Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 011500 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
900 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.MARINE UPDATE...LOCAL NEAR SHORE OBSERVATIONS AND A LOOK AT LOCAL
WEATHER CAMS ALONG THE BEACH INDICATE DENSE MARINE FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
MARINE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LOCAL BAYS AND SOUNDS UNTIL NOON CST. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LINGERING AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER
SUNRISE. ALOFT UPPER MID TO UPPER FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL TONIGHT
WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH MOVING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM DAMPENS SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING
IN LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWFA TODAY
AND TONIGHT KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY AS LIGHT RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO THE LACK DEEP MOISTURE...WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE THOUGH LEANING TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV
FOR MOST INLAND AREA DUE MOSTLY FROM PERSISTENCE. TODAYS HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE COAST...AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S FURTHER
WEST. LOWS TONIGHTS WILL BE MUCH WARMER...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S TO THE EAST AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER WEST AND
ALONG THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
STATES.  A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES TO
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE STALLING WHILE A LARGE SURFACE
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST AND A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH
A POSITIVELY TILTED WESTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROF...ADVANCES INTO THE
PLAINS.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THEN POPS
TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.  AS THE LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT REMAINS JUST WEST AND NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY CONTINUE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOW END CHANCE POPS
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND A PORTION OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...A BIT COOLER OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION...THEN MILD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S THEN
RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND WILL WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD AND MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY.  THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND USHERS MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.  WHILE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA AND WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.  GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WHILE THE SHEAR LOOKS
WEAKER BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 0-3 KM MUCAPES LOOK TO ATTAIN 500-1000
J/KG AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE A COUPLE PERIODS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
GETS CHALLENGING THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.  THE FIRST
OF THESE POTENTIAL TIMES IS MAINLY OVER CHOCTAW COUNTY AND POSSIBLY
WAYNE COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT STILL EXPECT A
COLD RAIN.  CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S OVER INLAND AREAS RANGING TO THE
LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST.  THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE MOST
CHALLENGING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IN A MODEST OVERRUNNING FLOW WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE
LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THERE IS UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE...AND ALSO WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP.
FOR NOW HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S.  HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...THEN THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 AS AN OVERRUNNING FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
02.12Z. LOW STATUS COMBINED WITH PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING IMPROVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
BETTER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT
TIMES...TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 8
TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH EARLY TUE AS THERMAL/PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REINFORCED BY ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT RIDGE STALLS
WELL NORTH OF THE COAST RESULTING IN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY TUES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS THEN BUILD THROUGH EARLY WED
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
DEVELOP LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STRONGER RIDGE NEAR THE SFC TRACKS
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK. HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS TO
EXPIRE THIS MORNING WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  53  71  58  73 /  20  30  40  20  20
PENSACOLA   64  53  71  59  72 /  20  20  30  20  10
DESTIN      62  53  70  59  70 /  20  10  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   65  50  71  58  77 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  66  52  65  57  75 /  30  30  50  30  20
CAMDEN      65  51  67  57  77 /  20  30  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   65  51  73  58  76 /  20  10  30  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

&&

$$






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