Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 162031
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
BEGINNINGS OF A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST. MOST OF THE FA WILL SEE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL CONTINUING. /16

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AT SHOWING THE PHASING OF
A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH
A SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND TRACKING EAST TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA FRI NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...
BUT IT DELAYS THE PHASING BY ABOUT 12 HRS...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SFC
LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND KEEPING THE BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/FORCING EAST OF THE AREA. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THIS FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD THIS
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF.
THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN EARNEST ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...WITH A LARGER SHIELD OF RAIN LIKELY SPREADING INTO
AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND COVINGTON COUNTY AL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STORM
SYSTEM STEADILY MOVES FURTHER EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN
QUICKLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. WE HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL
TOTALS TO A HALF INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...HIGHEST OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THESE TOTALS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
TOTALS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED WEST OF I-65.

LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES GIVEN THE CLOUDS/RAIN. LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS...COOLEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 70/LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE BAJA MOVES EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
BY NEXT TUESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WELL INLAND FROM
THE COAST. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COAST...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
NEAR IFR LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME RISING OF THE BASES AS TEMPS
WARM...BUT AM EXPECTING GENERAL MVFR LEVEL CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THURS. /16

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH...THEN EAST OF THE MARINE FA...WITH THE MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLIES BECOMING STRONG NORTHERLIES. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL SETTLE ALTER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  71  57  73  54 /  05  10  50  50  10
PENSACOLA   50  69  59  71  55 /  05  20  60  50  20
DESTIN      55  68  60  69  58 /  05  20  70  70  30
EVERGREEN   44  70  55  71  50 /  05  10  40  50  20
WAYNESBORO  41  70  55  73  51 /  05  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN      42  70  54  71  50 /  05  10  20  40  10
CRESTVIEW   43  71  57  70  51 /  05  20  60  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








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