Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 041557 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1057 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
INSOLATION. UPDATED GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO INCREASE THE MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BY A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE LOWER 90S.
MAINTAINED UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
POPS FOR TODAY...PRIMARILY TO CUT BACK ON LATE MORNING CONVECTION
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10 TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT...BUT KEPT HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MOVE SOUTHEAST. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT]...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/AR AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. REGIONAL
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN ORGANIZING COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN AR THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL WITHIN A REGION OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING. OUR
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ISOLATED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AS OF 4 AM CDT. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
HOLDING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TODAY...WHILE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS MS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AL IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY...MAINLY SCATTERED THIS MORNING...BUT PERHAPS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AL BY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES/ WILL BE
LOCATED WITHIN THE MORE FAVORED REGION OF LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALSO ALONG POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THE MCS TO THE NORTH AND THE APPROACHING
SEABREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. IN TERMS OF POPS...WE GENERALLY HAVE 30-40
PERCENT COVERAGE INDICATED EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE TO LIKELY /60-70 PERCENT/ COVERAGE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL AFTER 18Z...WITH 40-50 PERCENT COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...AND
OUR LOCAL WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST DOES INDICATE A MODERATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL TONIGHT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY COVERAGE. CONTINUED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES WILL BRING AN
ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVER INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF CONVECTION
REPEATEDLY TRAINS OVER SOME AREAS. /21

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY AND MONDAY]...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BEFORE SLIDING NORTHEAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE AREA STAYS ON THE EDGE OF RIDGING DOWN AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE REGION. AS THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...MOST MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING IT CLOSING IT OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
FEATURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS TN AND NORTHERN AL...
IT WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR NOW...
LEANING TOWARD BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS. EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTHEAST MONDAY...CWA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS.

HEAT WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT UPPER
80S ON SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND HOVER IN THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. 07/MB

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE AT THE SFC AND MID LEVELS...A FEW
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO PREDOMINANTLY
BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. HEAT INDICES AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 100 MARK RE-ENTER THE
FORECAST BY MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT MUGGINESS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE BEACHES AND COASTAL COMMUNITIES EACH NIGHT. 07/MB

AVIATION...04.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...A FEW VERY PATCHY
REGIONS OF MVFR CIGS/FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH BROKEN MAINLY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.  EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED IN
AND NEAR CONVECTION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. /21

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...BUT LOW SEAS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  86  72  88 /  30  50  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   90  75  85  73  88 /  30  40  40  30  40
DESTIN      89  77  86  77  89 /  30  40  40  30  40
EVERGREEN   91  71  86  70  88 /  50  60  60  40  40
WAYNESBORO  90  70  87  69  89 /  60  70  60  40  40
CAMDEN      90  70  85  70  87 /  60  70  60  40  40
CRESTVIEW   92  71  87  71  88 /  30  50  50  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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