Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 210959
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
459 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A WEAK
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY FORMING NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COVERAGE WILL BE
MOSTLY ISOLATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MUCAPES UP 3400 J/KG...A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SFC DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM THE 104 TO 107 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH THESE
VALUES ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MENTIONING THESE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS IN
AGREEMENT WITH CENTERING THE ~594 DM HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
FACTOR IN AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS
110. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
BY FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE VERY CLOSE TO OUR LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 108 DEGREES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING
HEAT INDICES IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND LOCAL GRAPHICS...AND LET NEXT SHIFTS MAKE AN ASSESSMENT
ON THE PLACEMENT/NECESSITY OF A HEAT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MAINLY LOCATED ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND OR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEAT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE REGION BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 110 BOTH AFTERNOONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY
NEAR THE SEABREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA AND WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME PLACED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY...WITH PWATS AS
HIGH AS 2.2-2.3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. /21

&&

.AVIATION [21.12Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
22.12Z. COULD SEE LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FORMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 22.00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES...THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN AND LOWER GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  75  97  75  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  77  96  79  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      92  79  94  80  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   97  72  99  73  99 /  20  05  20  10  20
WAYNESBORO  97  74  98  73  99 /  10  05  10  10  10
CAMDEN      98  73  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   97  72  99  74  99 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



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