Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 302111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
411 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...An upper level ridge continues
to extend from the western Gulf of Mexico through the north central
Gulf and into AL and the northwest FL panhandle this afternoon,
while a surface ridge of high pressure continues to stretch across
much of the north central Gulf. Despite the presence of the upper
ridge, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along the
advancing seabreeze as expected near the coast and I-10 corridor
this afternoon, a couple of which have produced brief gusty winds
(37 mph noted at KHRT at about 216 PM) and frequent lightning
strikes. Brief but locally heavy rainfall has also fallen where
storms have developed, with radar estimating upwards of 1-2 inches
of rain in very localized spots given the very slow movement of the
storms. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies and hot
temperatures prevail across the remainder of the region, with
readings in the lower to mid 90s inland, and mid 80s to around 90
closer to the coast away from storms and associated outflow.

Convection should once again quickly diminish with loss of daytime
heating, and have isolated POPs in the early evening followed by dry
conditions overnight in the forecast. Lows tonight should continue
to range from the mid 60s to around 70 inland and 70-75 near the
immediate coast and beaches.

The upper level ridge is expected to flatten Tuesday, with embedded
impulses in the more zonal flow component expected to translate
across our region during the day. Additional lift provided by these
impulses will likely aid in scattered convective development across
much of the region, especially again in the vicinity of the
seabreeze. We increased POPs to about 30 percent over most locations
away from the immediate coast. Precipitable water values may
increase to 1.5-1.75 inches around the region Tuesday, perhaps
locally as high as 1.75-2.0 inches in the vicinity of the seabreeze.
MLCAPE could be a little more enhanced near the vicinity of the
seabreeze Tuesday afternoon, with the NAM-12 indicating values
between 1500-2500 J/KG near the I-10 corridor. The potential for
isolated storms to pulse to near severe levels with wet microbursts
and associated wind gusts over 50 mph may increase a bit more by
Tuesday afternoon if these parameters become realized, and will be
something to monitor. We still expect another round of hot
temperatures, with highs in the lower to mid 90s inland and upper
80s to around 90 near the beaches. /21

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...Aloft...weak
high pressure will continue over the central gulf coast region and
southeast states through midday thu then shift east to near the ga/sc
coast and western atlantic late thu through fri in response to a
deepening mid to upper trof over the central and lower plains states.
At the surface weak high pressure will continue over the central
gulf coast region and southeast states through much of the week with
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day...initially
developing on an early afternoon seabreeze boundary forming mostly
over the lower half of the forecast area...generally inland from the
coast...followed by further development into late afternoon and early
evening hours forming mostly on random outflow boundaries from
thunderstorms earlier in the day. Model soundings continue to
indicate marginal instability or cape values along with high lcl
heights through the week combined with slightly better moisture in
the lower levels suggesting mostly isolated to scattered
thunderstorms for most areas through early thu. With limited forcing
in the mid levels through the week thunderstorms will continue to be
short lived producing gusty winds and short periods of heavy rain and
lightning. The best chance for an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm will be during the late afternoon or early evening hours
through thu. Daytime and overnight temps will continue to be slightly
above seasonal levels with highs mostly in the lower 90s inland and
the middle to upper 80s closer to the coast. Nighttime lows will be
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A deep upper trof of low
pressure will continue over the central and lower plains fri through
early next week likely leading to slightly better mid level forcing
and moisture return further east or downstream including the central
gulf states and lower mississippi river valley...continuing through
mon. As a result expect more clouds than sun each day with slightly
better coverage of showers and thunderstorms. With better moisture
return and mid level forcing afternoon convection could be stronger
over the weekend with thunderstorms remaining better organized than
earlier in the week. Day and nighttime temps will be slightly cooler
or near seasonal levels due to better clouds and coverage of precip.


.MARINE...A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch
across much of the north central Gulf through most of the week
before gradually shifting eastward and weakening late this week and
into the weekend. A daily pattern of light offshore flow at night
and light to moderate onshore flow during the day will generally
prevail through the week. Wind speeds will be a bit more enhanced
over near shore bays/sounds with the daily seabreeze. Seas will
remain low. A better chance of showers and storms will return to
most of the marine area this weekend. /21


Mobile      69  91  70  89 /  20  30  10  20
Pensacola   73  90  73  87 /  10  20  10  10
Destin      76  89  74  85 /  10  20  10  10
Evergreen   67  93  67  93 /  10  30  10  20
Waynesboro  67  94  66  92 /  10  30  10  20
Camden      67  93  67  93 /  10  20  20  20
Crestview   67  94  68  92 /  20  30  10  20


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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