Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 192047
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
247 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...A dry cold front will remain stalled across
southwest Montana and central Idaho into this evening. The front
will lead to continued dry and breezy conditions well into the
evening. Cooler, dry and breezy (though to a lesser extent)
conditions will persist into Sunday.

A subtle disturbance is still anticipated to move through the
Northern Rockies late Sunday night into Monday. This feature will
primarily bring an increase in cloud cover, with no rain
anticipated. The clouds should be diminishing by the time of the
solar eclipse on Monday morning.

The ridge of high pressure quickly builds back over the Northern
Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday causing temperatures to warm to
above normal readings. The models have come in fairly good
agreement for the next weather system that will impact the
Northern Rockies for the latter half of the work week. The upper
level flow becomes southwesterly late Wednesday allowing for the
development of a few showers and thunderstorms. This first wave of
convection should be on the dry side. A disturbance ripples
through the flow keeping nocturnal convection lingering over the
region. Then a strong cold front swings through on Thursday. This
front will be the focal point for precipitation development, but
questions remain on how much rain will be experienced across the
area. Slightly cooler, but breezy conditions are anticipated
behind the front and on through Friday. Wednesday night into
Friday could be another round of critical fire weather conditions.

The models indicated that the Northern Rockies will be right back
under a strong ridge of high pressure, producing above normal
temperatures for the weekend.

&&

AVIATION...Breezy westerly winds will persist across the Northern
Rockies this afternoon and evening. The winds should begin to
diminish after sunset this evening. The wildfire smoke will cause
reduced visibity just down wind of the area fires. Tonight, once
the winds calm down, smoke will be settling into the valleys which
could become an issue for area terminals by Sunday morning,
especially KMSO.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Bitterroot...East
     Lolo.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening East Beaverhead.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Deerlodge/West
     Beaverhead.

ID...&&

$$



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