Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 290919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
319 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...There is an area of convection moving north through
Utah and Idaho early this morning, with the developing
southwesterly flow. These showers and thunderstorms will move into
our region during the afternoon and evening and may continue into
the overnight. Southwest Montana may see a few showers and
thunderstorms this morning with the first wave, but most of the
activity will be later today. An additional shortwave is forecast
to move through north central Idaho and western Montana Friday, so
showers and thunderstorms chances can be expected for most of the

Rain will overspread the region through the day Saturday, with
mild temperatures and generally cloudy conditions also persisting.
During this time, winds will begin to increase quite a bit as
the cold front finally passes. Gusty winds may shut off some
valley locations from seeing further rainfall, but with mountains
continuing to pick up additional precipitation through Saturday

From this point forward, the low pressure system takes a southerly
dive, keeping the heaviest and most-focused area of precipitation
from affecting too much of the Northern Rockies Sunday. Most of
northwest and west central Montana should see some sunshine and
drier weather during this time, while locations near the
Continental Divide (likely south of the Bob Marshalls) and across
southwest Montana and southwest Idaho will see a refocused area of
rainfall developing Monday into Tuesday.


.AVIATION...Southwesterly flow is developing over north central
Idaho and western Montana today. Shortwaves will move into the
region under this flow pattern so shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures in
most locations will again be well above average and reminiscent of
summer temperatures. Cloud cover, showers, and maybe a few
thunderstorms will continue into the overnight. Additional
shortwave trough passages will make for an active shower and
thunderstorm period through Friday, with the main cold front to
pass on Saturday.



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