548
FXUS66 KMTR 151253
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
553 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- High temperatures will be below their seasonable averages today
   and continue through Thursday.

 - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the
   higher elevations.

 - Slight warming trend Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
(Today and tonight)

Another night of stratus, but it looks healthier and more widespread
than last night. Expect stratus to continue to seep into the
interior valleys of the region over the next few hours, with the
daily retreat beginning by mid to late morning. The marine layer is
expected to be around 1500-2000feet today, which should keep a
healthier amount of stratus along the coast and perhaps immediate
coast today while interior locations clear out. Another wash, rinse,
repeat forecast is on tap for tonight with stratus, fog, and patchy
drizzle returning.

For those above the marine layer, elevated fire weather concerns
slightly warmer and dry conditions continue. RH recovery looks to
reamin poor to moderate, while winds remain onshore. Diurnally
breezy conditions are expected each afternoon/evening along the
coast, mountain gaps/passes, and along ridgetops.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)

Cooler weather on tap with the marine layer remaining around 1500 to
2000 feet through midweek, before compressing closer to 1200 to 1500
feet by the end of the week. This should allow for the continuation
of nighttime and morning stratus, though the extent and amount of
fog or drizzle should not be as prominent by the end of the work
week. High temperatures remain below the seasonal norm through
Thursday, with a slight warming trend kicking off Friday and into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025


Almost completely widespread CIGs are affecting the region and the
CIGs continue to spread through the mid morning. Winds  Inland
clearing begins in the mid morning with most TAF sites going VFR in
the late morning and early afternoon. The exception will be HAF,
which keeps CIGs through the the TAF period. Winds look to stay
light to moderate through the morning and increase into late the
late morning and afternoon. Expect winds to reduce into evening as
IFR CIGs begin to move inland from the coast and filling over all
but the more interior areas by the late night as the coastal areas
fall to LIFR.

Vicinity of SFO...Spotty IFR CIGs will affect the terminal through
the mid morning before clearing. Winds stay light through much of
the morning before breezy west winds return in the late morning

SFO Bridge Approach...CIGs are much more consistent and look to
linger through the late morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/LIFR CIGs with light winds with pockets
of mist and drizzle affecting visibilities last into the morning.
Winds become moderate into the mid to late morning as CIGs erode
over the terminals, but expect cloud cover to linger over the
Monterey Bay itself until the mid afternoon. Winds weaken again into
Tuesday evening with IFR CIGs that look to fall to LIFR at MRY that
night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Breezy winds and rough seas will be present through Tuesday
afternoon for the northern outer waters. After those winds and
seas ease, expect light to moderate winds through Friday with
moderate seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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