Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 241154
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
354 AM PST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly sunny skies will prevail around the area
today with another chilly night forecast for tonight. Dry weather
and slightly warmer temperatures are expected through the
weekend. Cooler and unsettled weather is expected to return by
early next week with another system bringing rain to the area
later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:08 AM PST Saturday...Under clear skies
current temperature readings across the region indicate many
locations in the upper 20s to mid 30s across inland areas. Current
temps are running as many as 8 degrees cooler than they were 24
hours ago. Dew point temps are also running much cooler and are
currently in the 20s across the district. A freeze warning remains
in effect for San Benito and the interior of Monterey counties
until 9 AM for temperatures dropping into the 20s. Interior
locations of the SFO Bay Area will also be cold enough for patchy
frost.

Dry weather will continue through Sunday as another system drops
into the Great Basin. Rain will stay east of the district but
there may be some cumulus clouds during the day Saturday, mainly
over the eastern hills. The coldest air will shift further to the
east so overnight lows for Sunday morning are expected to be
about 3-5 degrees warmer.

The next chances of rain for the district are from late Sunday
night into Monday as another storm system drops south along the
west coast. Rainfall amounts are expected to range from one- tenth
of an inch in the valleys to a quarter to a half inch in the
higher terrain. Snow levels will initially be around 3000 feet
then lower to 2500 feet during the day Monday so there could be
some snow on the highest peaks.

Medium range models show potentially wetter weather affecting the
area later in the week with rain beginning Wednesday night and
spreading south through the district on Thursday. Showers to
remain over the area into next weekend as we remain under an
unstable trough pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 3:54 AM PST Saturday for 12Z Saturday TAFs. VFR
conditions are expected through early/mid morning, but increasing
moisture around 2,000-5,000 ft AGL through the day will make the
forecast challenging. Terminals will generally see the skies go
from SKC to SCT, and possibly BKN. Additionally, breezy west to
northwest winds are forecast to develop in the afternoon. Local
in-house WRF model suggests winds between 10-20 kt for the typical
wind-prone terminals.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR this early morning with increasing clouds
between 2,000 and 5,000 ft around mid/late morning. There remains
uncertainty with the coverage of the clouds and can`t rule out the
possibility of a period with MVFR ceilings. Will continue to
monitor and amend as necessary. Light winds in the morning will
become west to northwest around 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon with
higher gusts possible.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions expected through mid-
morning, then VFR/MVFR for the afternoon as increasing clouds
arrive. Generally light offshore winds in the morning will become
onshore in the afternoon around 10-20 kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Here are the record low temperatures and the years they occurred for
Saturday, February 24.

Location          Saturday

SF Bay Area

Healdsburg        29 in 1944
Santa Rosa        28 in 1920
Calistoga         29 in 1982
Kentfield         29 in 1955
San Rafael        34 in 2017
Napa              30 in 1919
San Francisco     40 in 1891
SFO Airport       35 in 1955
Half Moon Bay     33 in 2017
Oakland Airport   36 in 2015
Richmond          36 in 1955
Livermore         29 in 1987
Moffett Field     34 in 2017
San Jose          26 in 1897
Gilroy            28 in 1960

Monterey Bay Area

Santa Cruz        29 in 1925
Salinas           31 in 1982
Salinas Airport   30 in 1953
Monterey          37 in 1955
King City         24 in 1982

&&

.MARINE...as of 02:02 AM PST Saturday...Gusty north to northwest
winds will continue across the coastal  waters through the weekend
as high pressure sits over the eastern Pacific. On Monday an upper
level low pressure system will move  south bringing a cold front
over the waters resulting in increasing winds, fresh swell, and
scattered showers.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...Freeze Warning...CAZ516-518
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 10 AM
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 9 AM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION: Rowe
MARINE: Rowe

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