Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 231702 AAA
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1202 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Scattered showers have developed as expected and should be with us
off and on much of the afternoon. Forecast for the rest of the day
did not need much updating but did tweak temperatures, clouds and
winds earlier.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

WV imagery this morning showing an elongated upper level positive
tilt trof stretching from eastern Canada all the way to the
southwestern CONUS with embedded circulations...one over the upper
Midwest and the other over Quebec. Meanwhile...an upstream ridge
oriented SW-NE situated from the CA coastline to central Canada.

For today...the upper level Midwest low/vort max will migrate
southward and push into the mid MS valley later this afternoon. And
with several minor impulses riding down the backside of the
system...this may be enough to pop off some showers over the CWA
this afternoon. RAP13 not showing any instability to speak of...and
expect any activity to be isolated in nature.

Dry conditions with a noticeable warming trend is on tap as the
western CONUS ridge builds into the central Plains Wednesday through
Friday.

The chance for elevated convection will increase late Friday
night when a cold front...associated with shortwave energy
traversing the U.S./Canadian border...sweeps into the region. Both
the NAM/GFS hint moisture advection leading up to the fropa will be
generous with PWS values of 1.5" or so reaching into the southern
CWA. Given this...a few locations south of the I-80 corridor may see
generous accumulations leading up to sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

With the medium range models in agreement showing no significant
thermal advection occurring throughout the extended periods...the
going temp forecast with mid 70s/low 50s looks reasonable for
now.

Precip chances continue Thursday night through Saturday afternoon as
in response to series of embedded impulses running down the backside
of deepening upper low dropping out of south-central Canada into the
lower 48.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Ceilings should be variable this afternoon with at least TEMPO
MVFR conditions possible. There is some uncertainty on cloud
heights tonight, but MVFR conditions could occur at least into the
overnight hours. RAP and GFS model low level RH forecasts seemed
to be reasonable.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Miller



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