Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 260809
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
WARM EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SOME 4500` STRATOCU HAD DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND THIS MOIST AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MAIN
CONCERN HAS BEEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST AND
WHETHER ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS YET...AND LATEST RAP MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...DEVELOPING IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THEN EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THAT STILL SEEMS LIKELY...BUT WILL BE BACKING OFF
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN DRIZZLE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
THUS...WILL KEEP LOWER 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL WARM
TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND FEEL OPTIMISTIC WE CAN
STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. RECORD AT KLNK
TODAY IS 86...DON`T THINK WE`LL MAKE THAT AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES SHORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA TODAY ALSO GIVING US A
BRIEF RETURN TO SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE`VE HAD
RECENTLY.

UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH DRAGS THE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD STAY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ELEVATED...WOWITH HIGHS IN THE ULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE REAL COOL AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING.

COOLER TEMPS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S...WHICH WOULD FINALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS QUIET...WITH NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW TEMPS. THERE STILL IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT A SMALL
SPRINKLE CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO MENTION YET. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...
BUT RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE IS POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
MID MORNING SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FOG WITH VSBY
UNDER 3 MILES IS KLNK...WHICH MAY SEE AN IFR CEILING BRIEFLY TOO.
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AT AROUND 1000 FEET...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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