Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 251930
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
230 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

General trend into the weekend is for ML/UL long-wave like pattern
to amplify as west coast trough develops into northern plains closed
low by early Friday. Developing upper ridge somewhat dirty as
moderate moisture remains as bits of weak energy pass. At LLs...high
pressure holds but does show signs of weaken latter part of the
week. Overall...isolated to scattered shwrs/storms are expected to
continue into the weekend. Hard to put finger on exactly which
day will have greater coverage without really any good organized
features. But while pattern is not exactly summer like...is it
similar as most activity is expected in the afternoons/eves as
thermodynamic parameters pushing CAPE 2000-3000 range 18-03z
time-frames each day.

Early Sunday...upper ridge reacts to weak system heading up FL east
coast as well as filling plains upper low. While upper ridging does
hold, it dampens significantly and remains as such into the early
part of next week. Despite weaker ridging, moisture source is
more limited. Thus...isolated activity is expected in large part
Monday-Wednesday...although Tuesday shwrs/strms may be a bit more
numerous.

Temps heading into the next week looking to remain well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Band of showers is moving across West Tennessee late
this morning and appears to be picking up some steam. Latest HRRR
also shows more widespread shower development during the
afternoon, so will include TEMPO groups for light showers and VFR
cigs at BNA & CKV. Expect generally benign weather after 00Z. At
this time, radiation fog appears unlikely owing mainly to
persistent VFR cigs.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  88  68  88  66 /  20  20  10  20  20
Clarksville    66  85  66  84  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
Crossville     65  84  65  84  63 /  20  20  10  20  20
Columbia       66  87  67  86  65 /  20  20  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   65  88  67  86  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
Waverly        67  86  66  84  65 /  30  30  20  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........08



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