Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 252026
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
326 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Upper ridge axis directly aligned across the mid state today. This
feature will move east and allow a cold front to swing across the
mid state Wed nt. Along and ahead of the boundary showers and
tstms can be expected. Looks as though the convection will begin
mainly late Wed nt and extend into Thursday morning. Rainfall
amounts of generally around one half to three quarters of an inch
can be expected. At the onset of the precipitation area, linear
forcing will be in place along with a 50 kt 850 mb flow. Cannot
rule out a few strong to severe tstms with this even though the
system moves through at night.

Moving on, a pacific high will briefly build in on Thursday and
provide a dry day. A warm front will then lift northward on
Friday. Airmass looks capped for both Friday and Saturday
morning`s. However, the cap will break in the afternoon with more
storms likely. Instability and shear will be on the impressive
side once again so look for the potential for a few strong to
severe tstms both days. Forcing appears to the a little more
favorable and organized on Friday afternoon as opposed to
Saturday.

The final system in this unsettled weather pattern will impact the
area on Sunday afternoon and evening. The shear and forcing looks
especially strong on this day and thus, this looks to be our best
chance for an organized severe weather event over the next 7 days.

As for temps, warm in the near term with mid 80s for tomorrow. Not
as warm Thursday behind the fropa. The warm front lifts northward
on Friday and then it heats back up into the mid to upper 80s for
highs on Fri and Sat. Dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s so
it will be quite muggy. Cooler and more seasonal weather for Mon
and Tues.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VIS satellite imagery shows most of the mid-state under a diurnal
VFR cu field, especially CSV where BKN-OVC CIGS will remain
through the afternoon. Expect SCT to sometimes BKN CIGS at CKV and
BNA, but after sunset all three sites will clear out. Winds will
become south-southeasterly throughout the day and will remain
steady overnight so little if any VIS restrictions are
anticipated.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  86  64  73  52 /   0   0  50  60  10
Clarksville    56  83  61  70  48 /   0   0  60  30  10
Crossville     52  80  62  73  51 /   0   0  30  60  10
Columbia       55  85  63  72  53 /   0   0  60  50  10
Lawrenceburg   56  86  64  74  53 /   0   0  50  60  10
Waverly        57  85  62  70  50 /   0   0  60  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........05



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