Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 281128
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING. THESE WILL PERSIST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE STATE. ACCOMPANYING THE RAINS WILL BE MAINLY IFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN AT
KCKV LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT VFR SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

KCSV WILL SEE THE WORST OF IT AS IFR CATEGORIES WILL WORSEN TO
LIFR/VLIFR TONIGHT AS VIS AND CIGS FALL OFF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART EVEN WITH THE FROPA. THE
FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH KBNA AND KCKV...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
KCSV LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WORKING ITS
WAY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH STILL SOME POST-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE COOLER AIR UPSTREAM. LATEST NAM SOLUTION
SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT TO COME THROUGH DURING THE DAY, SO
WILL KEEP HIGH POP`S IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SCATTERED POP`S
MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. QPF`S ARE RELATIVELY LOW, WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE PLATEAU, AND LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOOK FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
OUT BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AWAITING AT
THE START OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING A
DRY SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING US AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS TO CARRY US TO THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT ACTIVE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND PRECIPITATION COULD
START OFF AS SLEET GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALL RAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW
TURNS SW`LY AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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