Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 010157
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
757 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS RATHER EXTENSIVE THIS EVENING. RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME REFLECTIVITY ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST.
BUT...SFC OBS NOT SHOWING ANY RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND. THIS
IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST OHX SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS A
RATHER DEEP LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR. THUS...WITH THE LOWER CLOUDINESS
STILL LOCATED A LONG WAY TO OUR WEST...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO
THE WX GRIDS. IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS ON ORDER FOR LATE TONIGHT....BUT NOT BEFORE.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. MODELS DO INDICATE...HOWEVERE...THAT TEMPS
WILL LEVEL OFF. SO...WILL ONLY LOWER MIN TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO.

REMINDER OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IS THEME OF THIS TAF CYCLE AS STRONG
SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN OH VALLEY. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY INITIALLY PRODUCE WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE SFC WINDS GUST 20-30KNTS AFT 15Z. PCPN WILL START 14Z-16Z
RANGE CKV AND SPREAD QUICKLY EAST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL RESPOND BY
LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON MVFR/IFR RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OUR MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WINTRY WX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALL OF MID TN WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL MONDAY MORNING WITH
FREEZING TEMPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION FROM DAYBREAK TO MID
MORNING MONDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EASTWARD. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
ON THE MILD SIDE...15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE A RAINY AND BREEZY DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK...I 65 AROUND 10 AM...AND THE PLATEAU BY
NOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 25 MPH WILL BRING IN MILD AIR...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 50-55.

RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY
FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

BY MIDNIGHT.,.THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING MID TN. LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO SOME LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK. SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
DUSTING ON THE GRASS BY 6 AM...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING
TO FREEZING BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DIP BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR...SO SOME
TRAVEL PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST A SLUSHY DUSTING AT MOST FOR MUCH OF MID TN...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...PRODUCING ONE HALF INCH FOR
MUCH OF THE U.C. AND POSSIBLY ONE INCH FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COLD WITH LOWS MAINLY
LOWER 20S.

LONG TERM...TUESDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND NOT AS COLD FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH A POSSIBLE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOSTLY DRY.
THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH A GULF COAST SYSTEM...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO
MID TN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER NORTHERN WAVE...AND
SUPPRESSES THE GULF SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL KEEP IN VERY LOW
POPS MIDWEEK. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

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PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE MID STATE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND
VEER SE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...INCLUDING LLWS AT CKV AND BNA EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THOSE TAF SITES THOUGH SHOULD HAVE A FEW HOURS
TO MIX DOWN WINDS PRIOR TO ANY RAIN. A FEW GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH
UP TO 20 KT OR EVEN HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE 12-18Z SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...AMPLE RAIN WILL AFFECT CKV AND BNA AROUND 18Z
TOMORROW. BUT FOR NOW...WENT WITH LIGHT RAIN AND LOW VFR CIGS
JUST BEFORE 18Z. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFTER
THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD.

AL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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