Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 220533
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1133 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon, the cold front was located upstream and stretched
from central IN southwest across southern MO. This feature will drop
southeastward and move through our area by midnight. Airmass is
currently rather dry so no precipitation is expected, although
scattered high level cloudiness should continue.

On Wednesday, caa pattern will be in place. Will undercut guidance
by a degree or two and we should only see highs in the upper 40s to
near 50. The sfc ridge will stretch sw-ne and be in close proximity
for both Thursday and Friday mornings. At that time min temps will
be able to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s range.

In the ext fcst, a southerly return flow will begin on Friday ahead
of the next dry frontal passage on Saturday. Slightly warmer both
days with highs 55 to 60. Not seeing much in the way of upper
ridging that could couple with the southerly flow to make it warmer.
It will again be a dry fropa as moisture depth is lacking.

Slightly better troughing behind the weekend fropa and so look for
below normal temps for early next week. Nothing all that cold but it
will be a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

At 05z, a dry cold front was pushing across northwestern Middle
Tennessee and should reach the Nashville Metro area by 0630z and
the CSV area by 09z. When the front passes, expect north surface winds
to increase to 10 to 13 kts, and become a bit gusty between 13z
and 21z, before diminishing to less than 5 kts after 00z/23.

Expect some MVFR ceilings at CSV late tonight and early Wednesday, due
to a band of stratocumulus accompanying the cold front. However,
by 15z believe clouds will scatter, with flight conditions
returning to VFR.

At the remaining three terminals, expect VFR conditions to prevail
throughout the forecast period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......04
AVIATION........04



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