Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 221215
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
515 AM PDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region this morning and bring
drying from the northwest. Scattered showers will still be
possible through the afternoon in the mountains. It will be a
rather windy day with gusts of 30 to 50 mph possible across
portions of the open wheat country of Washington and the Idaho
Palouse and on some ridges. Warm and dry conditions will return on
Monday and linger through the week. This may be interrupted
briefly by a fast moving weather system on Wednesday that will
bring a shot of moisture and breezy winds, then conditions drying
out again later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...GUSTY WINDS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...

Today...The cold front is sagging into the region as of 2 AM this
morning and should be east of the forecast area by mid-day.
Precipitation is quickly coming to and end behind the front. In
addition temperatures have been rising quickly with good mixing.
Showers will continue across the Cascades but with the
temperatures pushing above freezing the Snow Advisory will be
taken down. Further to the east the precipitation will linger over
the Okanogan Highlands until 12-15z or so but the temperatures
have risen above freezing as well and the Snow Advisory for that
zone will also be taken down. Light to moderate precipitation
will last across the eastern zones through the morning then turn
to scattered showers in the afternoon. Good mixing and sunny skies
will allow temperatures to jump up into the mid 50s to mid 60s
this afternoon.

The main focus for today will be the strong/gusty winds. The
surface gradient is expected to remain tight through this
afternoon. However the strongest 850mb winds are expected to peak
between 12-15z then begin to subside through through the
afternoon. Some mixing to the surface early this morning is being
caused by the precipitation with gusts 40 to 50 mph. Behind the
front the mixing will be better, but by then the 850mb winds begin
to decrease, but there will still be gusts 45 to 50 mph and maybe
a little higher across the the western Basin, the Palouse,
Garfield county and up by Spokane through sunset.

Tonight and Monday...High pressure begins to build into the region
tonight and strengthens on Monday for a warming and drying trend.
There is quite a bit of dry air moving in behind the cold front
today, but lingering low level moisture and up-sloping flow will
result in isolated to scattered rain and snow showers this evening
for the lee side of the Cascade crest and the central Panhandle
mountains, then dry on Monday. Temperatures on Monday will remain
in the 50s and 60s and 3-5 degrees above normal. Tobin

Monday night through Saturday: Overall models have come into good
agreement of a strong upper ridge Tuesday...briefly flattening
Wednesday...before rebuilding over the area Thursday through
Saturday. This will result in a dry weather pattern. The
flattening of the ridge that occurs on Wednesday will allow a cold
front to drop in from the northwest. The 00z GFS, UKMET, and
Canadian show a weak-moderate front passage while the ECMWF
remains a bit stronger. Overall the trend in the models has been
for a weaker front compared to previous runs. Thus winds were
decreased a bit on Wednesday...and temperatures were increased to
slightly above normal values for the end of the week as the ridge
builds once again. Shower chances on Wednesday will be mainly
along the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle...otherwise dry
conditions are expected during this forecast period. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front is moving across the southeast
portion of the forecast area from now until about 15z. The front
should clear the KGEG-KSFF-KCOE corridor between 1230-1300z with
rapid improvement. Moderate to heavy precipitation will be likely
for KPUW and KLWS through 15z, with mountain obscurations across
the Blue mountains and the central Panhandle through 16-17z.
Behind the front southwest winds 20-30kts with gusts 30-40kts
will be likely through 00-02z this afternoon. Conditions improve
through the night. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  55  38  58  40 /  80   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  57  39  55  37  58  40 /  90  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        59  42  57  41  63  42 / 100  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       65  45  62  42  65  44 /  80  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       59  35  55  34  55  36 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      54  34  53  33  55  34 /  80  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        49  37  50  36  58  38 / 100  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     64  37  60  33  61  36 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      58  40  59  39  59  41 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           59  34  57  34  57  36 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for Coeur d`Alene
     Area-Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.


&&

$$



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