Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 261728
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1027 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of near average temperatures before a warming and
drying trend begins on Sunday. Hot and dry summer conditions will
continue through the middle of next week. Hot temperatures persist
into next week, with an increasing risk for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Sunday: High pressure builds in with dry, mostly clear
conditions and warmer temperatures. Through the period 500mb
heights rise. The steering flow shifts from west to southwest by
late Sunday. There is almost no convective instability. A bit of
moisture lingers near the northern mountain today, suggesting
some flat cumulus in the afternoon here. Drier air comes in with
the building ridge tonight into Sunday, leaving mostly clear
conditions until late Sunday. A weak upper impulse approaches from
the south then with some moisture. So a few high clouds are forecast
to approach late. Otherwise conditions will be dry, with diurnally
driven winds. Temperatures will push close to average today, then
above average Sunday under the building ridge. /J. Cote`

Sunday night through Friday...Good model agreement and run-to-run
continuity continued through the extended forecast period with the
field of motion over the region dominated by a strong western USA
ridge...with the forecast area laying under the northwestern
flank of this feature. This strongly argues for increasingly hot
and mostly dry conditions through the upcoming week. The flow
pattern will promote the eventual arrival of monsoonal moisture
for a small thunderstorm threat possibly as early as Monday over
the far southeast and panhandle mountains...with models hinting at
a stronger push of moisture later in the week. Models traditionally
do not handle these monsoonal pushes too well in the far periods,
so the details (specific higher risk days and areal extent of
thunderstorm coverage) will be left to further refinement in the
upcoming days. With no well defined short waves or disturbances
expected at this time...any thunderstorm coverage will be more
random and unorganized than the recent gangbuster event associated
with last Wednesday`s cold front and strong trough passage. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure will build into the area for the next 24
hrs. VFR conditions all TAF sites, with diurnal winds and speeds
of 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        85  58  92  65  96  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  82  54  90  58  95  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        85  50  92  56  96  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       92  62  98  68 101  67 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       86  53  93  54  97  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      79  49  87  51  95  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        80  54  87  57  92  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     90  59  96  63 100  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      89  63  94  69  98  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           90  57  95  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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