Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 031138
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE IS FINALLY ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO GIVE A COHERENT CLEARING
TREND. MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA TO CLEAR OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE HAS SEEN THE CLOUDS RE-DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. AND OF
COURSE...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR FOR AN HOUR...FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED. THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. WILL
MONITOR FOR SUBSTANTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE AND MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING AN ADVISORY OR A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION THAT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY IN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES IS NOW DEVELOPING FARTHER
NORTHWEST IN THE 00Z MODELS...AND THEREFORE IS NOT ABLE TO REACH
OUR AREA BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY. SCALED BACK POPS AND QPF TO MATCH
THIS TREND.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SO EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AND THURSDAY...AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL TRY TO MIX DOWN ON
FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD START TO MODIFY THURSDAY. WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE A BIT MORE
ROBUSTLY.

WITH CONCERNS ABOUT THE CLEARING TREND TODAY...WENT ON THE LOW
END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WENT A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO AND DRY AIR IN
PLACE. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. CONVECTION UPSTREAM WILL BE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SLIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE INTO OUR AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN BUT VARY IN TIMING AMONGST
THEMSELVES WITH REGARDS TO HOW TO DEAL WITH SAID CONVECTION.

FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS ADVERTISED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN...OUR
REGION WOULD REMAIN IN A RING OF FIRE TYPE REGIME WHICH WOULD MEAN
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH A POTENT FROPA ON
TUESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO GIVE US A CHANCE TO WARM UP QUITE
A BIT AS WE REMAIN IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FASTER APPROACH AND HAS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LEAVING THE AREA DURING EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THE EURO THEN KEEPS THINGS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN ANOTHER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z RUN DID SEEM TO SWAY A LITTLE IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE GFS HOWEVER...WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND ALSO NOT ADVERTISING QUITE AS DRY A WEEKEND
WITH THE SFC HIGH NOT REALLY BUILDING IN QUITE AS STRONG AS
BEFORE.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES STILL INDICATE A WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE TYPE POPS UNTIL A CLEARER
SIGNAL STARTS TO EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 80S
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS WE COULD EACH THE UPPER 80S IN PLACES
SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED AT THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KCGI...WHICH MAY NEED 3 TO 4 HOURS THIS MORNING TO GET RID OF THE
MVFR CEILING. WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...SOME IFR TO MVFR FOG
REMAINS AND WILL NEED AN HOUR OR TWO TO LIFT. OTHERWISE...SOME
SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST OR EAST WIND SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MIXING
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED NOT TO MENTION FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS



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