Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 192238

538 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Issued at 536 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Updated Aviation Section for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Should be a nice Easter Sunday as we remain between high pressure
off the Northeast Coast and weak low pressure out over the western
Plains. Weak southerly flow and sunshine should help boost
temperatures well into the 70s to near 80.

The system out to our west will slowly make it`s way into our area
Monday into Monday night. Again, the sfc low looks to be quite
weak, and the mid lvl trof should remain slightly positively
tilted. Thus, will not go too high with POPs or actual rain
amounts at this time. The 12z GFS QPF output still seems overdone
given the expected synoptic pattern. Leaned toward the lighter
ECMWF/GEM blend for this package.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The high amplitude mid/upper level flow is forecast by the med range
models to continue across the conus throughout the extended forecast
period. Other than some lingering pcpn in wrn KY early Tue, dry
weather can be expected for the PAH forecast area under a ridge
aloft and high pressure at the sfc, through most of Thu.

The latest runs of the med range models suggest that a negatively
tilted mid level low will be approaching the Great Lakes region by
Thu afternoon/evening. This system will have a sfc cold front
associated with it moving through the PAH forecast area during that
time. 0-6 km bulk shear is indicated to be possibly in excess of 40
knots. Sfc dew points may hit 60 west of the MS River. However, a
negative factor for severe weather will be instability, which
appears limited at this time. Among model solutions, there have been
some fluctuations in forecasts of moisture return. If there is any
severe potential, it looks like it would be for a brief interval,
leaving Fri mostly dry under nwly flow at the sfc and aloft.
Models/ensemble means suggest that more dry weather is probable
through Sat(Day 7). Temps through the extended period will
fluctuate, but should stay within reasonable bounds of seasonable


Issued at 536 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

With high pressure shifting east, return flow southerlies will
develop tmrw. This may lead to some waa mid or high clouds as



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