Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
500 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG FORMATION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AND
DENSE FOG CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. ANY AREAS OF
FOG...ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES OF
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE... WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG AREA RIVERS HAVING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THIS
OCCURRING. DEWPOINTS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AS CLOUDS DIMINISHED AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING QUICKLY DROPPED SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THOSE MARKS.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDER LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT WERE
MUTED DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASED DURING CONDENSATION AT THE
SFC. WITH THAT...THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING FROST IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE TODAY EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD LIMITS MIXING...AND
WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HEAVY OVERNIGHT DEW FORMATION.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIFR-MVFR FOG THAT DEVLOPED OVERNIGHT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BY MID
EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.