Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPS.

DVLPG WARM AND MOIST ADVCNT WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING
OFF AS STEEPLY AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER.

THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY IN SRN WV WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS THUS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A SLGT CHC OF ELEVATED SHWRS AND TSTMS ALTHOUGH
PROGGED WIND/FORCING ABOVE THE CAPPED BNDRY LYR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK.

WARMTH...WITH HIGHS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVGS...HUMIDITY...AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WL RTN TO THE ENTIRE
REGION AS THE WARM FRONT JUMPS NWD ON SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT IN TIMING OF A CONVECTION
SPPRTG SHRTWV...BUT MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT
SEEING SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLDS AND
PCPN EXPECTED TO HOLD SUNDAY TEMPS CLOSER TO...BUT STILL ABOVE THE
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES...
HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
E COAST HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS INTO SAT WITH DIURNAL CU.
INSTBY WL INCR SOME IN SRLY WNDS SAT...BUT ANY CNVCTN SHOULD RMN
LMTD SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SAT NGT AND SUN.
ADDNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07



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