Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 172219
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
519 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will spread across the region this evening with a
passing upper level disturbance. Warmer temperature, a cloudy
sky, and areas of light drizzle can be expected Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
An early eve update was issued to adjust hourly trends of
temperature and precipitation based on the radar, obs, and
consensus short guidance.

Previous...
Light rain associated with a weakening upper level shortwave
will spread across the region through this evening. For the most
part, temperatures remain above freezing, with marginal readings
along the I 80 corridor where minimal precip is anticipated. No
headline is thus anticipated.

After the shortwave departs tonight, moisture trapped under the
inversion may keep light rain or patchy drizzle across most of
the forecast area through the night, with little difference in
reasoning for much of Monday. Cloud cover and precip will
maintain very little diurnal change for both tonight and Monday
with values near seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Zonal flow is maintained, though weak ripples in the upper level
pattern may be enough to generate additional light precip. Have
cut back PoPs significantly since forcing remains weak and much
of the moisture remains under about 2kft.

Strengthening warm advection Tuesday ahead of a slightly more
amplified wave will support above average temperature with
values closer to normal in cold advection/northwest flow.
Building surface ridge should lend to little more than cloud
cover wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Zonal flow returns Thursday with some amplification in the upper
level pattern as wave ejects into the Plains. This will be the
next notable system progged to approach late in the period, with
some differences between the guidance in timing. Stayed close
to the Superblend for the end of the week with some moderation
in warm advection to above average temperature by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are anticipated into Monday as light rain and
drizzle will prevail under an inversion trapped over the
region.  Expect IFR with low stratus by Monday morning.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely through Tuesday, as abundant low-level
moisture remains trapped under the inversion.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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