Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 250725 CCA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
325 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today.
Unsettled but warm weather is expected for the second half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today. Slight to low
chances for showers and thunderstorms should return toward
evening for areas west of the PA/OH border as a weak shortwave
approaches. Temperatures are expected to average around 10
degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weak shortwave is progged to complete it`s passage across the
region tonight, with shower chances continuing. A few early
evening thunderstorms are possible with marginal instability
across Ohio. Another weak crossing shortwave Thursday should
maintain shower and thunderstorm chances across the area.

Moisture and instability should continue to increase in southwest
flow through Saturday on the western periphery of an eastern CONUS
ridge. With a lack of significant shortwave support, expect mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend
should continue, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
levels expected using the latest GFS MOS and consensus guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble progs indicate the east coast ridging should persist through
early next week. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
chances through the period. Temperatures should continue averaging
10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited Superblend
guidance for the long term period to account for uncertainty and
to smooth out day to day operational model differences.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR can be expected through today, but there is a chance for
degradation by tonight as a weak disturbance supports scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Have addressed this with a
"vicinity shower" mention given a lack of confidence in convection
coverage.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restriction chances in scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

07/15


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