Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 182052
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
352 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow are expected late Thursday night into Friday. Above
normal temperatures are forecast for the entire seven day period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Little change in airmass is expected overnight, so widespread
cloud cover will continue. The radar has shown a decreasing trend
in drizzle coverage locally, and decided to only keep drizzle in
the forecast through the afternoon hours. However, cannot
completely rule out that drizzle may persist longer into the
evening. As winds back to the south on Thursday, some dry
advection should allow for clouds to eventually scatter out.
Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s, which is
pretty close to normal daytime highs, and it should be the coldest
night out of the next seven. Thursday highs should range from the
mid 40s to the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper low over the central Plains will open into a trough as it
moves across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. At the
surface, this should bring a band of precipitation during that
same time period. Have bumped up pops to categorical in all
locations, and the timing should allow for some minimal snow
accumulation of up to an inch for locations north of Pittsburgh.
Although a lingering rain shower could persist Friday evening,
overnight Friday and Saturday should be dry. Saturday will have
the warmest temperatures of the seven days, with many locations
reaching the 60 degree mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong upper low will develop across the Southern Plains and
track to the northeast through the beginning of next week.
Although the ECMWF and GFS still show some timing differences,
this will bring occasional rain Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Degraded conditions with MVFR to IFR cigs will persist into
tonight as low pressure shifts east of the region. Improvements
can be expected Thursday as building high pressure supports
general VFR.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely again as low pressure develops toward the
Great Lakes by Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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