Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300550 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL UPDATE TEMPERATURES
IN LINE WITH LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER TO SUIT
THE LATEST TRENDS.

A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE SHOVED NORTHEASTWARD AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A LARGE SHIELD OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF THE ONSET OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON STILL REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF MID-
WESTERN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. WILL KEEP TIMING CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD SEE A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN AND WARMER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF MY AREA.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE SYSTEM.

MODEL DIFFERENCE CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF
THE SURFACE LOW. LATEST NAM IS GENERALLY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND BOTH THE GEFS AND GEPS. THESE DIFFERENCES
ALSO IMPACT THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...
THIS WILL DETERMINE IF THE AREA BREAKS OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IN TURN INSTABILITY
INCREASES IN A MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS. FOR THE SUNDAY
FORECAST...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF MODEL DATA DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS
WELL.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONGLY ANCHORED PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...AS A RIDGE LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AFTER A DRY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS MRNG WITH LOW LVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. BUILDING SFC RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
DECREASE IN LOW LVL CLOUDS. VFR IS EXPD TO RETURN AFTER DAYBREAK AS
MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AHD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR...AND EVENTUAL IFR...RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN LATE SAT FOR PORTS S OF I 80.


.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.