Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 141741
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
941 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AN AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS SUCH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROVIDE EXTRA ENERGY. THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS, AND FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO WALLOWA
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING RUN FROM AROUND 4500 FT MSL TO 5500
FT MSL. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING LEVELS OF 5500 FT MSL OR HIGHER BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THUS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
WIND WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN TODAY.
MEANWHILE, EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH MIXING LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING
IN THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS TO ALLOW THE CURRENT AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. UPDATES THIS MORNING
FOCUSED ON ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP CHANCES AND SNOW LEVELS. ALSO MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHED NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE
COAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW AS SNOW LEVELS DECREASE
TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE THURSDAY, ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. IT SHOULD START DRYING OUT AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
A WESTERLY FLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RIDGE
BUILDING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE MVFR
OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DUE TO A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING
RAIN SHADOWING OFF THE CASCADE RANGE AND A FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN OREGON, ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE OTHER
TAF SITES WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. SW-W WINDS WILL BE 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  48  64  44 /  60  50  10  10
ALW  57  50  66  47 /  70  50  10  10
PSC  58  49  66  46 /  50  20  10  10
YKM  55  42  63  42 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  58  49  66  44 /  60  30  10  10
ELN  50  42  58  38 /  30  20  10  10
RDM  56  41  62  39 /  40  30  10   0
LGD  51  46  59  39 /  80  60  20  10
GCD  54  43  60  37 /  70  40  10  10
DLS  56  48  63  45 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR WAZ026-
     027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/93/82


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