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000
FXUS66 KPDT 200508 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1010 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...UPDATES WERE MADE TO REMOVE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SE
WASHINGTON AND NE OREGON...AND A NW FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS AREA WET UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WALLOWA COUNTY AND WILL SWING NE INTO
CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 PCT FOR
THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER. FARTHER
WEST...POPS WERE DECREASED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WASHINGTON
AND OREGON CASCADES WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE IT WILL BE
WINDY BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL MONITOR WINDS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS TO DETERMINE IF ANY UPDATES SHOULD BE MADE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEAR ON TRACK.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
09Z-12Z FROM THE BLUE MTN FOOTHILLS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.
DESPITE THE -RA AT KPDT AND KALW...CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER
BELOW 4K FEET AGL.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z.
ELSEWHERE...VARYING CLOUD COVER WITH BASES BETWEEN 6-12K FEET AGL
AND HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.  A COOL
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
AT ALL TAF SITES.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRDM
AND KBDN WHERE 5-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STILL THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA
MTNS.

THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. BY
SATURDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOST OF
OUR AREA SHOULD BE DRIER WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN
SYSTEMS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.  BY SUNDAY EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT A NEGATIVE TILT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST OREGON ON SUNDAY EVENING.  AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES DOWN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY ONWARD...RIGHT NOW MODELS HOLD THE LOW OFF THE
SEATTLE...VANCOUVER ISLAND COAST.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ARE...THE ECMWF MODEL BEGINS TO BUILD A FOUR CORNERS HIGH TOWARDS
THE MID WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES UP AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DOWN.  GFS MODEL HAS THE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OVER THE CENTER
OF THE US...AND THE RIDGE IS LESS AMPLIFIED.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
MILDER AND POSSIBLY MOISTER EXTENDED...WITH BOTH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  CONFIDENCE IN TUESDAY ONWARD FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY LOW FOR BOTH THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE.
WEBER



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  66  46  67 / 100  40  30  30
ALW  51  66  50  68 / 100  40  30  40
PSC  52  69  51  71 /  40  40  30  30
YKM  50  67  48  69 /  20  40  30  30
HRI  51  69  50  71 /  40  40  30  30
ELN  52  64  49  68 /  20  40  30  40
RDM  35  65  36  67 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  44  61  43  61 /  90  40  30  30
GCD  39  61  38  61 /  50  30  20  20
DLS  52  69  52  71 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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